By Choi Sung-jin
Many North Korea watchers predicted the reclusive regime would conduct its sixth nuclear test on Oct. 10, the founding anniversary of its ruling Workers' Party, which turned out to be wide of the mark.
Now they point to December as the month to watch, when there are several anniversaries and political events in the isolationist regime.
They note, for instance, that Dec. 17 is the fifth anniversary of the death of the previous leader Kim Jong-il and that Dec. 30 is also the fifth anniversary of his son and incumbent leader Kim Jong-un taking over the helm of the socialist state.
Pyongyang may make "strategic provocations" timed with these anniversaries to demonstrate its nuclear and missile capacity and prove that the economic sanctions by the international community have turned out to be useless, experts say.
"December is filled with various anniversaries for North Korea and the recovery work of the flood damage also will have been completed by then," said Chung Sung-jang, senior researcher at Sejong Institute. "The North may launch a long-range missile on the fifth anniversary of Kim Jong-il's death or conduct its sixth nuclear test to celebrate the fifth anniversary of Kim Jong-un's inauguration."
Pyongyang seems to have refrained from another nuclear test on Oct. 10 because of strong checks by China, which has been helping the North restore from the flood damage swiftly, he added.
Another expert took note of the fact that the North's propaganda machine is emphasizing Kim Jong-il's death-bed instructions, which called for perfecting the nuclear armaments in the shortest possible time.
"Chances are high that the North would launch a missile or carry out a nuclear test on the anniversary of the senior Kim's death," said Chang Yong-suk, a fellow at the Seoul National University Institute for Peaceful Unification.
North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test two days before Kim Jong-un's birthday on Jan. 8, and launched a long-range missile prior to his father's birthday on Feb. 16, and conducted the fifth nuclear test on Sept. 9, the regime's founding anniversary.
Others expect that North Korea may make provocations around the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8, given that the recalcitrant regime has maintained all along that its nuclear weapons development program is aimed at the United States.
"What's certain is that North Korea is ready to make provocations, nuclear or missile, any time it wants to," said Chung Jun-hee, spokesman for the Ministry of Unification.
Many North Korea watchers predicted the reclusive regime would conduct its sixth nuclear test on Oct. 10, the founding anniversary of its ruling Workers' Party, which turned out to be wide of the mark.
Now they point to December as the month to watch, when there are several anniversaries and political events in the isolationist regime.
They note, for instance, that Dec. 17 is the fifth anniversary of the death of the previous leader Kim Jong-il and that Dec. 30 is also the fifth anniversary of his son and incumbent leader Kim Jong-un taking over the helm of the socialist state.
Pyongyang may make "strategic provocations" timed with these anniversaries to demonstrate its nuclear and missile capacity and prove that the economic sanctions by the international community have turned out to be useless, experts say.
"December is filled with various anniversaries for North Korea and the recovery work of the flood damage also will have been completed by then," said Chung Sung-jang, senior researcher at Sejong Institute. "The North may launch a long-range missile on the fifth anniversary of Kim Jong-il's death or conduct its sixth nuclear test to celebrate the fifth anniversary of Kim Jong-un's inauguration."
Pyongyang seems to have refrained from another nuclear test on Oct. 10 because of strong checks by China, which has been helping the North restore from the flood damage swiftly, he added.
Another expert took note of the fact that the North's propaganda machine is emphasizing Kim Jong-il's death-bed instructions, which called for perfecting the nuclear armaments in the shortest possible time.
"Chances are high that the North would launch a missile or carry out a nuclear test on the anniversary of the senior Kim's death," said Chang Yong-suk, a fellow at the Seoul National University Institute for Peaceful Unification.
North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test two days before Kim Jong-un's birthday on Jan. 8, and launched a long-range missile prior to his father's birthday on Feb. 16, and conducted the fifth nuclear test on Sept. 9, the regime's founding anniversary.
Others expect that North Korea may make provocations around the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8, given that the recalcitrant regime has maintained all along that its nuclear weapons development program is aimed at the United States.
"What's certain is that North Korea is ready to make provocations, nuclear or missile, any time it wants to," said Chung Jun-hee, spokesman for the Ministry of Unification.
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