By Choi Sung-jin
The completely wrong forecasts about the result of the April 13 parliamentary elections by polling agencies has caused popular criticism about the usefulness of political surveys.
Even before that, however, Korean voters had been less affected by polling numbers, as an increasing number of people select candidates without much outside influence, an expert pollster says.
The share of voters who think opinion polls have little or no influence on their decisions increased from 62 percent for the 18th parliamentary elections in 2008 to 74 percent for the 20th elections this year, an increase of 12 percentage points in eight years. In the case of local elections, the corresponding share rose 17 percentage points, from 55 to 72 percent over the cited period.
On the other hand, those voters who replied that they were influenced by poll numbers fell from 38 percent to 23 percent for general elections, and from 45 percent to 28 percent for local elections, according to an analysis by Kim Chun-seok, an executive at Hankook Research, a polling agency.
Kim made the analysis based on his survey of voter consciousness over the past decade or so.
"This is due in part to the decline in the popular trust of opinion polls but is more attributable to the behavioral changes of voters, who have increasingly tended to make their own political decisions rather than listen to opinion leaders and other experts," Kim said.
Backing up these changes in trends is the timing of their decision-making, he said. In 2008, only 22 percent of the voters replied that they had made up their minds a month before voting day but for the 2016 elections the comparable portion rose to 47 percent. On the other hand, the portion of voters who make their decisions a week before casting their ballots dropped from 64 percent to 41 percent.
"The fact that voters are making their choices earlier indicates they are casting their ballots subjectively instead of being swayed by opinion polls and other factors," Kim said.
As a result of analyzing factors affecting choices, the character and integrity of the candidates exerted greater influence on voters than their parties and campaign pledges in presidential and parliamentary elections. In local elections, character and campaign promises exerted similar influence to candidate themselves on voters.
Meanwhile, voter turnout in national elections has gradually risen in Korea, showing that Koreans' political participation is high compared with other countries.
Turnout for presidential elections rose from 63.0 percent in 2007 to 75.8 percent in 2012, and that for parliamentary polls also climbed from 46.1 percent in 2008 to 54.2 percent in 2012 and to 58.0 percent in 2016. The voting rate at local elections went up from 51.6 percent in 2006 to 54.5 percent in 2010 and to 56.8 percent in 2014.
As a result of comparing recent voter turnout in 110 countries' presidential elections, Korea's turnout of 75.8 percent was far higher than the average of 66.2 percent.
"Compared with foreign countries, Koreans' political participation can hardly be said to be at a worrisome level," Kim said. "In view of the active political participation by voters here, politicians need to try harder to keep the people from regretting their decisions."
The completely wrong forecasts about the result of the April 13 parliamentary elections by polling agencies has caused popular criticism about the usefulness of political surveys.
Even before that, however, Korean voters had been less affected by polling numbers, as an increasing number of people select candidates without much outside influence, an expert pollster says.
The share of voters who think opinion polls have little or no influence on their decisions increased from 62 percent for the 18th parliamentary elections in 2008 to 74 percent for the 20th elections this year, an increase of 12 percentage points in eight years. In the case of local elections, the corresponding share rose 17 percentage points, from 55 to 72 percent over the cited period.
On the other hand, those voters who replied that they were influenced by poll numbers fell from 38 percent to 23 percent for general elections, and from 45 percent to 28 percent for local elections, according to an analysis by Kim Chun-seok, an executive at Hankook Research, a polling agency.
Kim made the analysis based on his survey of voter consciousness over the past decade or so.
"This is due in part to the decline in the popular trust of opinion polls but is more attributable to the behavioral changes of voters, who have increasingly tended to make their own political decisions rather than listen to opinion leaders and other experts," Kim said.
Backing up these changes in trends is the timing of their decision-making, he said. In 2008, only 22 percent of the voters replied that they had made up their minds a month before voting day but for the 2016 elections the comparable portion rose to 47 percent. On the other hand, the portion of voters who make their decisions a week before casting their ballots dropped from 64 percent to 41 percent.
"The fact that voters are making their choices earlier indicates they are casting their ballots subjectively instead of being swayed by opinion polls and other factors," Kim said.
As a result of analyzing factors affecting choices, the character and integrity of the candidates exerted greater influence on voters than their parties and campaign pledges in presidential and parliamentary elections. In local elections, character and campaign promises exerted similar influence to candidate themselves on voters.
Meanwhile, voter turnout in national elections has gradually risen in Korea, showing that Koreans' political participation is high compared with other countries.
Turnout for presidential elections rose from 63.0 percent in 2007 to 75.8 percent in 2012, and that for parliamentary polls also climbed from 46.1 percent in 2008 to 54.2 percent in 2012 and to 58.0 percent in 2016. The voting rate at local elections went up from 51.6 percent in 2006 to 54.5 percent in 2010 and to 56.8 percent in 2014.
As a result of comparing recent voter turnout in 110 countries' presidential elections, Korea's turnout of 75.8 percent was far higher than the average of 66.2 percent.
"Compared with foreign countries, Koreans' political participation can hardly be said to be at a worrisome level," Kim said. "In view of the active political participation by voters here, politicians need to try harder to keep the people from regretting their decisions."
![[INTERVIEW] How AmazeVR revolutionizes aespa's LYNK-POP concert](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/4431833759c44bdaa414cb314e90f2fe.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
![[REVIEW] Musical 'Monte Cristo' returns with riveting tale of vengeance, love](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/3934be1fa6844478b619a015d610bc5b.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
![[INTERVIEW] Meet the man behind giant rubber ducks that once took over Seoul](https://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/thumbnailV2/df32c60c8204448e98ccdb9841366bec.jpg/dims/resize/178/optimize)
