By Choi Sung-jin
North Korea is highly likely to carry out its sixth nuclear test sooner rather than later, an expert said Friday.
"There is the possibility that North Korea will conduct a test of an amplified nuclear bomb with far greater power than before in the near future," said Lee Chun-keun, a senior fellow of the Science and Technology Policy Institute, at a workshop. "There are comparably certain technological demands and elements for improvement."
"Although North Korea has made five nuclear tests, it has not reached a level of sufficient standardization," Lee said. "The North may mass produce a few types of standardized warheads and deploy them to meet its immediate military demands but it will need to carry out additional tests to improve or optimize them."
If Pyongyang failed to add power to its nuclear bomb in the fifth test, as it did in the fourth, that means the reclusive regime will have to conduct another test to improve it, the researcher said. In order to develop an amplified weapon or fusion bomb, it should be able to produce fissile material, develop element technology and conduct a comprehensive test for standardization.
"Sometimes we need to twist North Korea's announcements in interpreting them," Lee said. "As the North Koreans failed in their attempts to sharply increase explosive power in the fourth test, falsely claiming it was a hydrogen bomb, the fifth test can also be seen as a failure because Pyongyang did not even mention a fusion bomb, which means it needs to carry out another test."
Commenting on the Defense Ministry's announcement that the explosive power of the fifth test was 10 kilotons, Lee said the power can change sharply depending on the rock formations and water content of the land surrounding the detonating facility. "Given this, they can increase explosive power to 15-20 kt."
In the seminar, experts also dealt with the political implications of the North's nuclear development programs.
"In the aftermath of the North's fifth nuclear test, the strategic composition in Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, will undergo considerable changes from the aspect of international sanctions on the isolated regime," said Shin Jong-ho, chief of the policy research department at the Korea Institute for National Unification. "To attain the goal of denuclearizing North Korea, however, South Korea ought to play a leading role in minimizing the negative effects that the strategic competition and conflicts between the United States and China will have on this peninsula."
North Korea is highly likely to carry out its sixth nuclear test sooner rather than later, an expert said Friday.
"There is the possibility that North Korea will conduct a test of an amplified nuclear bomb with far greater power than before in the near future," said Lee Chun-keun, a senior fellow of the Science and Technology Policy Institute, at a workshop. "There are comparably certain technological demands and elements for improvement."
"Although North Korea has made five nuclear tests, it has not reached a level of sufficient standardization," Lee said. "The North may mass produce a few types of standardized warheads and deploy them to meet its immediate military demands but it will need to carry out additional tests to improve or optimize them."
If Pyongyang failed to add power to its nuclear bomb in the fifth test, as it did in the fourth, that means the reclusive regime will have to conduct another test to improve it, the researcher said. In order to develop an amplified weapon or fusion bomb, it should be able to produce fissile material, develop element technology and conduct a comprehensive test for standardization.
"Sometimes we need to twist North Korea's announcements in interpreting them," Lee said. "As the North Koreans failed in their attempts to sharply increase explosive power in the fourth test, falsely claiming it was a hydrogen bomb, the fifth test can also be seen as a failure because Pyongyang did not even mention a fusion bomb, which means it needs to carry out another test."
Commenting on the Defense Ministry's announcement that the explosive power of the fifth test was 10 kilotons, Lee said the power can change sharply depending on the rock formations and water content of the land surrounding the detonating facility. "Given this, they can increase explosive power to 15-20 kt."
In the seminar, experts also dealt with the political implications of the North's nuclear development programs.
"In the aftermath of the North's fifth nuclear test, the strategic composition in Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula, will undergo considerable changes from the aspect of international sanctions on the isolated regime," said Shin Jong-ho, chief of the policy research department at the Korea Institute for National Unification. "To attain the goal of denuclearizing North Korea, however, South Korea ought to play a leading role in minimizing the negative effects that the strategic competition and conflicts between the United States and China will have on this peninsula."
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