Minor candidates could impact presidential race: observers

The Korea Times

The Korea Times

National

Fri, December 8, 2023 | 08:55

Minor candidates could impact presidential race: observers

Posted : 2012-09-27 10:35

Updated :

Minor candidates who have announced their bid to run for Korea's top political office are likely to have larger-than-expected influence on this year's presidential race, political observers said Tuesday.

The predictions come as three more hopefuls announced their candidacies during the day, bringing the total number of contenders to eight so far.

Lee Jung-hee, a former co-chairwoman of the minor opposition Unified Progressive Party (UPP), and its current interim head Min Byung-ryul both said they would run for president.

In addition, Lee Kun-k, the senior partner of a local law firm Joowon and former lawmaker of the right-wing United Liberal Democrats, announced his bid. On Sept. 4 Kang Ji-won, another lawyer famous for his work in protecting youths, said he would compete in the presidential election.

Of those competing this year, only Park Geun-hye, the standard bearer for the ruling Saenuri Party; Moon Jae-in, the presidential candidate for the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP); and Ahn Cheol-soo, an independent hopeful with strong support from young people, have any real chance of winning the Dec. 19 election.

Pundits, however, said that because this year's race is expected to be very close, less popular contenders could play a decisive "casting vote" role.

Recent polls show Park, Moon and Ahn are locked in a close race, but maintaining a comfortable lead over minor candidates.

Depending on whether the poll is for a hypothetical one-on-one or three-way race, approval ratings of the three candidates range from a high of 50 percent to mid 20 percent.

Park holds the advantage if both Moon and Ahn split the opposition-leaning votes, but Ahn has taken the lead in recent days in a two-way race, while Moon is running neck-and-neck in a match-up with the Saenuri candidate. Park has been hit hard recently by the controversy surrounding her views on history and corruption scandals involving party members.

Despite the lead, some hopefuls such as Lee of the UPP and Kang have approval ratings in the 3-4 percent range, making them a force to be reckoned with.

"If the race is so close that the victor is decided by 500,000 to one million votes, then minor candidates can impact the outcome," the Korea Society Opinion Institute's chief analyst Yoon Hee-woong said.

In the 1997 and 2002 presidential elections, the winners won by 1.6 percentage points and 2.3 percentage points, respectively.

In a RealMeter poll conducted on 3,500 people nationwide last week, Lee, under attack for failing to prevent the split up of the UPP, earned an approval rating of 3.6 percent, while Kang, the former head of the Commission of Youth Protection and the Presidential Committee on Social Cohesion, won 3.9 percent.

If Lee does not step down and completes the race, she could take votes from the opposition candidate, while people who vote for Kang may hurt Park as well as Ahn. Kang is considered a moderate.

Pundits said that toward the end of the race, there may be a move by major candidates to persuade minor contenders to step down so as not to split the votes. (Yonhap)