North Korea feared to return to nuclear brinkmanship

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, second from right, talks to officials of the United States Forces Korea (USFK) during his visit to U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday. Courtesy of USFK

President-elect reiterates importance of extended US deterrence during visit to Camp Humphreys

By Jung Da-min

Concerns are rising that North Korea may be returning to nuclear brinkmanship by conducting another nuclear test ahead of major political events, including the 10th anniversary of leader Kim Jong-un's inauguration on April 11, as well as the April 15 Day of the Sun, an annual holiday marking the birthday of Kim Il-sung, North Korea's founding leader.

According to U.S. government officials and North Korea watchers, there is a high possibility of the country launching an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) or carrying out a nuclear weapons test in the coming days.

Sung Kim, the special representative for North Korea policy at the U.S. state department, in particular, warned of Pyongyang's possible nuclear weapons test on the April 15 anniversary, which would be the country's first nuclear weapons test in nearly five years. North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test in November 2017.

"We are worried that in connection with the upcoming anniversary, the DPRK may be tempted to take another provocative action," Kim told reporters during a phone briefing on Wednesday (local time). DPRK is an acronym for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.

"I don't want to speculate too much, but I think it could be another missile launch, it could be a nuclear test," he added.

Sung Kim, the special representative for North Korea policy at the U.S. state department, speaks to reporters outside the State Department building, in this Oct. 18, 2022, file photo. Newsis

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol reiterated the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the U.S.' extended deterrence during his visit to U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday.

"The importance of extended deterrence cannot be overemphasized," Yoon said.

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol, center, holds a meeting with officials of the United States Forces Korea (USFK), including General Paul LaCamera, commander of the United Nations Command (UNC), the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) and USFK, during his visit to U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday. Courtesy of USFK

His remarks came after his delegation to the United States, led by veteran lawmaker Rep. Park Jin of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), discussed the matter with U.S. counterparts, during a week-long trip to Washington D.C. which started on April 3.

During the delegation's meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the two sides discussed strengthening extended deterrence against North Korea's nuclear weapons, including the deployment of strategic assets, which refer to long rage bombers, nuclear-powered submarines, or aircraft carriers.

On March 24, Pyongyang test launched what it said was a Hwasong-17 ICBM, which the militaries of the U.S. and South Korea later concluded to have been a Hwasong-15 ICBM after days of analysis.

The North's latest ICBM launch was its first long-range missile test in nearly five years. The North Korean leader abandoned a self-imposed moratorium on ICBM tests since late 2017, which followed Pyongyang's launch of a Hwasong-15 in November that year.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman also noted growing security threats in the region during a House Foreign Services Committee hearing on restoring American leadership in the Indo-Pacific, Wednesday, saying more missiles tests are expected to come.

She said the U.S. and South Korea are committed to strengthening the alliance and enhancing capabilities to counter such growing security threats.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, right, poses with Rep. Park Jin of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), who led President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's delegation to the United States, at the State Department building, Monday (local time). Courtesy of U.S. Department of State

"Threats to our security are evolving, and our security approach must evolve with them. We are strengthening and deepening our five treaty alliances and other vital partnerships across the Indo-Pacific and working to enhance our capabilities," Sherman said.

She also called for "strong action" against Pyongyang's missile provocations.

"The transition team for President-elect Yoon of South Korea is here, and this is very much up in part of their discussions with everyone with whom they have met, which is to ensure that we take some strong action to let the North know that they can't just keep doing this without any consequences, that we take actions that show we have a credible deterrence against any attack by North Korea," Sherman said.

Seoul and Washington's joint move to seek strong action against Pyongyang comes amid growing tensions in the region, especially following strong messages by Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

In an April 3 statement, Kim Yo-jong warned that the South Korean military "will face an unimaginably terrible disaster, the worst-ever, if it violates even an inch of our territory," in response to Defense Minister Suh Wook's remarks on April 1 that the South Korean military is capable of conducting a preemptive strike if there is an obvious missile launch signal from the North Korean side.

Kim Yo-jong issued another statement on April 5 with a more specified warning of a nuclear attack against the South, saying: "In case South Korea opts for a military confrontation with us, our nuclear combat force will have to inevitably carry out its duty."

North Korea watchers said the two statements were warnings against the incoming Yoon Suk-yeol administration.

"So far, vice department director Kim's statement has played a role as a rough introduction to North Korea's route change to adopt aggressive strategies," Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said in a recent report on developments of inter-Korean relations.

Hong said the latest statement could be a prelude to Pyongyang's aggressive strategy against the incoming Yoon administration and there is a possibility of a military satellite launch or submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test by the North.