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| North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends the ruling party congress in Pyongyang, Saturday. / AP-Yonhap |
Deadlock in inter-Korean ties expected to continue
By Kang Seung-woo
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's long-awaited Workers' Party Congress message clarifying his "steadfast will" to develop his regime's nuclear program is throwing cold water on any gleam of hope for progress in the U.S.-North denuclearization talks ― even after the leadership change in Washington ― and possible developments in inter-Korean relations, according to Pyongyang watchers, Sunday.
Negotiations on North Korea's denuclearization have been stalled since the collapse of the Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim in February 2019, and as a result, inter-Korean relations have also seen little progress as well.
On Saturday, Kim delivered his message, through the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), regarding his country's respective bilateral ties with the United States and the South. In particular, his comments on the U.S. carried extra weight as they were the first from Kim to publicly address President-elect Joe Biden, who will take office next week.
In Kim's "chilling" message to the U.S., calling it the North's principal enemy, he said he did not expect the incoming Biden administration to drop its hostile policy toward his country. Also, he said the North will approach the U.S. on the principle of strength for strength and goodwill for goodwill, stating, "A key to establishing a new relationship between the DPRK and the U.S. lies in the U.S. withdrawal of its hostile policy towards the DPRK." The DPRK refers to the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"Relations between the U.S. and the North could be further deadlocked," said Shin Beom-chul, the director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
"Despite Kim's message, the Biden administration is less likely to change its stance and come forward for denuclearization negotiations with the North. Although the U.S. would be open to talks with the North Korean regime, the window of opportunity for the two sides to reach a substantial agreement is closing."
The Wilson Center's Asia Program fellow Cheong Seong-chang said Kim was making it clear that he has no intention of denuclearizing his country.
"While stressing its status as a nuclear weapons state, Kim never referred to denuclearization in his message, seen as his determination that the North will not engage in nuclear talks with the U.S.," he said.
"Should the U.S. administration stick to the idea of denuclearizing the North, Pyongyang will not sit down with anyone from Washington at all."
At the same time, Kim said that current inter-Korean relations have been brought back to the time before the Panmunjeom Declaration in April 2018 due to the South's hostile military acts such as joint military exercises with the U.S. and the acquisition of the latest military assets, adding that restoring bilateral ties depended on the Moon Jae-in administration's behavior.
Kim also said there was "no need to unilaterally show goodwill to the South Korean authorities as done in the past."
Cheong said there should be no great expectations for an improvement in inter-Korean relations as the North's conditions are something that the South cannot easily accept.
"With the North seeking to develop super-large nuclear warheads and ultra-modern tactical nuclear weapons, the South cannot accept the North's demand that it stop carrying out combined military exercises and securing the latest military hardware," he said.
In addition, Kim has also rejected the South Korean government's proposals for public healthcare and humanitarian cooperation as well as individual tourism, labeling them as "inessential issues," a hard blow to an administration seeking to normalize relations with the North via such cooperation and exchanges.
"Now it has become clear that the South Korean government's existing inter-Korean plans cannot get the stalled inter-Korean ties back on track," Cheong added.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University's Institute of Far Eastern Studies, said, "Given that the North has clarified its stance on relations with the U.S. and the South, it is unlikely to make positive and concrete proposals in the near future."
However, in response to Kim's messages, the South Korean unification ministry reiterated its commitment to implementing inter-Korean agreements and hoping for the two Koreas to start anew at an early date to move toward peace and prosperity based on mutual trust and respect.
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