Seoul should not be dazzled by NK's missile test suspension
This is the first in a series of interviews with international experts on the Korean Peninsula to discuss key issues at the upcoming inter-Korean summit slated for April 27. ― ED.
By Kim Jae-kyoung
South Korean President Moon Jae-in should not rush to settle things at the upcoming summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to an international expert on the Korean Peninsula, Sunday.
He stressed Moon and his administration should consider the summit as the first step of a long process to achieve denuclearization and ensure peace on the peninsula.
"We have to remember this is a process, and some initial steps toward dialogue are probably the most important outcome," Stephan Haggard, distinguished professor of political science at the University of California (UC) San Diego, said in an interview.
Haggard is the director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.
"Things will not be settled at the summit itself; they will gradually be settled by setting in a train of negotiations and channels between North and South that will permit other things to be done."
The specialist on the political economy of Korea called on Moon to raise some contentious issues during the historic summit scheduled for this Friday even if they might irritate the North's recalcitrant leader.
"Moon should at least raise difficult questions such as how conventional forces are deployed, the pursuit of new conventional weapons systems, family reunions, the ability of North Koreans to travel to the South and so on," he said.
Regarding Kim's announcement Saturday to suspend all missile tests and shut down a nuclear test site, he said not to give too much weight to his statement.
"The statement is really not saying that much. First, they have already paused and typically do when talks are going forward," he said.
Haggard's view came as President Moon last Thursday expressed his optimism about signing a denuclearization deal and a peace treaty with North Korea to formally end the Korean War at the summit.
Moon signaled the two Koreas could declare an end to the 1950-53 Korea War at the summit. The Korean Peninsula has been technically at war since the armistice was signed July 27, 1953, by the United Nations Command, North Korea and China.
Haggard, who is also a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the bottom line for Moon for successful talks is prudence and clarity.
"Moon should be cautious and be clear that declarations of intent are good first steps but that they ultimately require a foundation in behavior on the part of all the parties over time," he said.
"For example, the nuclear issue is a sign of North Korean intent; if it does not show a willingness to seriously negotiate denuclearization, why do we think any other promises would be kept?"
From his perspective, a declaration coming out of the North-South summit with respect to the end of hostilities does not really accomplish that much.
"The likelihood of an end to hostilities is not achieved by such a declaration, but will be a function of two things _ possible initiatives that would serve to increase trust, such as the monitoring of exercises or the redeployment of forces, and the behavior of the parties over time," he said.
Haggard, who is coauthor of "Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea" (2011) and "Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform" (2007), said Moon should recognize that a peace treaty will be a component of the upcoming summit politics.
He explained it is not the peace treaty per se that keeps the peace but deterrence, and honesty on both sides.
"These should not be seen in isolation, where a peace treaty replaces the need for a strong deterrent," he said.
Asked the primary purpose of Kim Jong-un's peace overture, he said there could be two plausible answers ― economic hardship and buying time.
"Kim is actually in more economic trouble than it appears, and/or that he is trying to buy some time and sanctions relief," he said.
"The two are clearly connected, but I don't think the American appetite for early concessions is high."
This is the first in a series of interviews with international experts on the Korean Peninsula to discuss key issues at the upcoming inter-Korean summit slated for April 27. ― ED.
By Kim Jae-kyoung
 |
| Stephan Haggard |
He stressed Moon and his administration should consider the summit as the first step of a long process to achieve denuclearization and ensure peace on the peninsula.
"We have to remember this is a process, and some initial steps toward dialogue are probably the most important outcome," Stephan Haggard, distinguished professor of political science at the University of California (UC) San Diego, said in an interview.
Haggard is the director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.
"Things will not be settled at the summit itself; they will gradually be settled by setting in a train of negotiations and channels between North and South that will permit other things to be done."
The specialist on the political economy of Korea called on Moon to raise some contentious issues during the historic summit scheduled for this Friday even if they might irritate the North's recalcitrant leader.
"Moon should at least raise difficult questions such as how conventional forces are deployed, the pursuit of new conventional weapons systems, family reunions, the ability of North Koreans to travel to the South and so on," he said.
Regarding Kim's announcement Saturday to suspend all missile tests and shut down a nuclear test site, he said not to give too much weight to his statement.
"The statement is really not saying that much. First, they have already paused and typically do when talks are going forward," he said.
"But it does not include a statement about what future intentions really are with respect to the weapons program."
Haggard's view came as President Moon last Thursday expressed his optimism about signing a denuclearization deal and a peace treaty with North Korea to formally end the Korean War at the summit.
Moon signaled the two Koreas could declare an end to the 1950-53 Korea War at the summit. The Korean Peninsula has been technically at war since the armistice was signed July 27, 1953, by the United Nations Command, North Korea and China.
Haggard, who is also a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the bottom line for Moon for successful talks is prudence and clarity.
"Moon should be cautious and be clear that declarations of intent are good first steps but that they ultimately require a foundation in behavior on the part of all the parties over time," he said.
"For example, the nuclear issue is a sign of North Korean intent; if it does not show a willingness to seriously negotiate denuclearization, why do we think any other promises would be kept?"
From his perspective, a declaration coming out of the North-South summit with respect to the end of hostilities does not really accomplish that much.
"The likelihood of an end to hostilities is not achieved by such a declaration, but will be a function of two things _ possible initiatives that would serve to increase trust, such as the monitoring of exercises or the redeployment of forces, and the behavior of the parties over time," he said.
Haggard, who is coauthor of "Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea" (2011) and "Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform" (2007), said Moon should recognize that a peace treaty will be a component of the upcoming summit politics.
He explained it is not the peace treaty per se that keeps the peace but deterrence, and honesty on both sides.
"These should not be seen in isolation, where a peace treaty replaces the need for a strong deterrent," he said.
Asked the primary purpose of Kim Jong-un's peace overture, he said there could be two plausible answers ― economic hardship and buying time.
"Kim is actually in more economic trouble than it appears, and/or that he is trying to buy some time and sanctions relief," he said.
"The two are clearly connected, but I don't think the American appetite for early concessions is high."
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