[INTERVIEW] 'Piecemeal strategy won't work'

Bang Chan-young, president of KIMEP University / Courtesy of KIMEP University

Fundamental understanding of NK regime necessary

By Kim Bo-eun

A step-by-step process for North Korea's denuclearization has been discussed for the past months since June when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed at their historic summit to work toward the goal of complete denuclearization.

However, the process was stalled for months over what seemed to be differences over who would make the first move ― Pyongyang taking a denuclearization step or Washington providing an incentive first.

Expectations abounded for progress after the third inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang last month, where North Korea stated it would permanently shut down its Tongchang-ri missile testing site in the presence of international experts and do the same for its key Yongbyon nuclear testing site if the U.S. took corresponding measures.

Over a month has passed, however, and North Korea has yet to respond to U.S. invitations for working-level talks over the matter.

The countries still appear at odds over what would be equivalent measures ― Pyongyang is believed to be seeking sanctions relief in addition to a declaration ending the 1950-53 Korean War, while Washington is calling for additional denuclearization steps.

Amid these circumstances, a North Korea expert said a piecemeal approach to the North's denuclearization will not succeed.

"North Korea has not only nuclear weapons but also a chemical arsenal and offensive weapons, such as intercontinental missile systems. Each and every piece of their offensive weapons should be first revealed by the North Korean government, then inspected and progressively dismantled, and then such dismantlement should be independently verified," said Bang Chan-young, president of the Kazakhstan-based KIMEP University.

Bang is an economist who taught at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of San Francisco. Bang was invited to advise the Kazakhstan president on economic policy, and led reforms of the country's economic system. He has also provided economic policy advice for North Korea.

"We have seen that many months have passed since the Punggye-ri demolition and we still don't have verification in place for this. At this pace, how long would it take to reach an extensive complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of all North Korean weapons?" he said.

"Even if we achieved this, how would the sole disarmament solve the issue of the aggressive nature of North Korea? This is not a feasible approach."

Understanding of NK regime necessary

Approaches like the Sunshine Policy failed because they were based on appeasement, rather than a coherent vision and a solid understanding of what the North Korean system is and how it works, Bang said.

"It is essential to understand that while nuclear weapons play an integral role in the North Korean regime's survival, they are not the end themselves but the means to an end," the scholar said.

He said North Korea exchanging its nuclear weapons program for security guarantees and economic modernization would offer reassurance for the Kim regime, but added the trade-off should take into account the dual nature of Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal.

This is that the weapons program serves not only as a deterrent against real or imagined threats from the U.S. but also as a source of legitimacy for the regime, without which Kim would lose his revered status as monolithic leader.

"Any policy put forward by the U.S. must offer the regime an exit strategy which would provide a new source of legitimacy, both domestically and internationally," he said.

"The U.S. has previously failed to introduce a coherent policy because they lacked understanding of the dual purpose of the nuclear weapons program. Therefore, their approach must be fundamentally altered in order to achieve denuclearization and permanent peace simultaneously."

Inter-Korean economic cooperation

North Korea has yet to make progress on denuclearization, but has been calling for sanctions to be lifted, and the South Korean government recently joined in on the calls.

While the stance of the U.S. and EU is that sanctions cannot be lifted until denuclearization is complete, talks are ongoing between the Koreas on economic cooperation, including projects to connect railways between the South and North.

However, Bang pointed out that economic cooperation in the true sense will not be viable under North Korea's current economic system.

"Their traditional socialist economy has grown dysfunctional and has a distorted allocation of resources. Modernization is simply not possible under a system in which the grueling labor of the mass population is exploited to the benefit of the elite. As it stands today, and as it has remained for more than 70 years, the North Korean system is extractive, not productive," he said.

"As long as their economy operates under such exploitative conditions, South Korean economic cooperation will always be one-sided, as a dysfunctional socialist system cannot coexist peacefully with a prosperous, democratic market economy."

Bang said the North needs to introduce market-oriented reforms and open up, for mutually beneficial development projects to become a viable option.

"Many point to the fact that North Korea has natural resources, but regardless of its abundance of raw materials and untapped potential, the government is ill-equipped to capitalize on them. The current state of deficient infrastructure within North Korea would make sustained and high economic growth impossible," he said.

Working out the process

"A step-by-step approach to denuclearization is not a tangible option for the U.S or North Korea, as both are running out of time and the idea of progress by gestures and reciprocation is time-consuming," Bang said.

He said this approach is also ineffective because it doesn't address the needs of either party, who have very different interests ― the U.S. is negotiating with the sole objective of complete denuclearization whereas North Korea is negotiating for its survival, which must come without nuclear armament and needs to be guaranteed by economic assistance.

"Any future meeting between the two parties needs be supported by substantial groundwork ― a solid background of concrete proposals that address the interests and necessities of all stakeholders. I think we are past the time for symbolic gestures and declarations of intentions," Bang said.