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So, it happened again: Kim Jong-un, the supreme leader of North Korea, failed to show and greet a visiting foreign dignitary.
This time, the dignitary was Lee Hee-ho, widow of former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung. She visited North Korea in early August, following an official invitation from Kim. Given the role that her husband played in starting the Sunshine Policy some 15 years ago, one would expect that she would be granted an audience by the North Korean leader. However, this did not happen.
This clearly forms part of a pattern. Just a few months ago, in early May this year, it was widely expected that Kim would visit Moscow, to attend massive celebrations for the Allied victory in World War II. North Korean diplomats hinted that he would attend until the last moment, but he did not show, and North Korea was represented in Moscow by Kim Yong-nam, the chairman of North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament, clearly a stand-in.
So far, in the three and half years of Kim's rule, North Korea has been visited by only one head of state, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, president of Mongolia, who came to Pyongyang in October 2013. It was then widely expected that he would meet with Kim, but he was allowed only to talk with other dignitaries with lofty titles but without actual power.
While the recent decision to avoid meeting Lee can be seen as a sign as another sign of Pyongyang's cold attitude to South Korea, the same explanation clearly does not hold for earlier ''non-summits" of the young Kim.
One can also not explain these events as an indication of Kim's reluctance to meet foreigners. As a matter of fact, the young Kim has met foreigners, and on such occasions, he presented himself in a relaxed host and engaging conversation partner. The most high-profile visit was of U.S. sporting celebrity Dennis Rodman. But there were other meetings that have remained unknown to the world's media. In all cases, Kim was quite willing to talk and even occasionally discuss matters of politics and diplomacy.
Thus, Kim is not a reclusive leader, but merely a leader who studiously avoids meeting his peers: the top executives of other countries, as well as people directly associated with them.
We can only guess as to the reasons for this. One of the most probable explanations is his embarrassingly young age. Had he spoken with foreign dignitaries, he would have faced people in their fifties and sixties, many of which would be of similar age to his father, and some, like Lee are even old enough to be his grandmother. It appears likely that Kim would feel uncomfortable when speaking with much older people whose views and ideas he does not share, while also doing what he can to present his country as equal to more powerful nations ― a rather difficult task, even for a far more experienced diplomat.
Admittedly, right now, Kim is under little pressure to improve relations with the outside world. Contrary to what one often hears in the international media, the North Korean economy is doing relatively well. Last year's harvest was good, and recent reports of drought notwithstanding, this year's harvest is also likely to be quite good. Industrial output is growing, albeit slowly, as is trade with the outside world. In such circumstances, North Korea is under less pressure to squeeze aid from the outside world, and can thus afford to adopt a rather passive attitude.
Thus, Kim seemingly feels that he can safely avoid awkward situations where he would be forced to talk to people much older than himself with theoretically equal standing. His country's position gives him some license to behave as he likes.
Therefore, it may be some time yet before foreign leaders have the chance to meet Kim firsthand. It seems unlikely now that the Chinese government, now preparing a lavish celebration for the end of the Second World War in the Pacific will invite Kim to participate in the festivities. His grandfather (Generalissimo Kim Il-sung) was an active, if rather marginal, figure in the anti-Japanese resistance. Korean resistance fighters are rightly remembered as Chinese allies in this struggle. Nonetheless, it appears highly unlikely that Kim Jong-un would show, if invited. The Chinese will have to satisfy themselves with some figurehead from Pyongyang, while Kim will remain in the comfort of his numerous residences.
Professor Andrei Lankov was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, and teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul. You can reach him at anlankov@yahoo.com.
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