G20 leaders set to tackle forex woes

The Group of 20 countries are vowing to make progress on easing the world’s currency tensions and creating better crisis-prevention instruments as they brace for the landmark summit between their leaders that starts Thursday in Seoul.

Vice ministers struggle to find action plans

By Kim Tong-hyung

The Group of 20 countries are vowing to make progress on easing the world’s currency tensions and creating better crisis-prevention instruments as they brace for the landmark summit between their leaders that starts Thursday in Seoul.

The G20 process in Seoul effectively kicked off Monday with a meeting between the countries’ deputy finance ministers, and Korea is passionate about having a meaningful agreement on the outstanding issues in place before it hands over the G20 chair to France on Friday.

Defusing the escalating currency battle has emerged as a critical objective of the Nov. 11 to 12 summit, with China’s resistance in allowing the yuan to strengthen and U.S. efforts to achieve devaluation through “quantitative easing” at the core of global conflicts.

The G20 leaders will also discuss details on adjusting the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) lending schemes to create a global financial “safety net” to prevent well-run countries from slipping into crisis.

This is expected to be a key part of the “Seoul Declaration” that will be announced at the end of the meetings on Friday, according to government sources here. The countries are discussing the possibility of using the IMF’s precautionary credit line to ease the future liquidity problems of the countries as well as the greater use of more flexible credit line systems.

Also to be discussed in Seoul are multi-year action plans to promote sustainable growth, liberalization of trade and investment, and helping developing nations.

“We have sent a draft version of the Seoul Declaration to G20 countries over the weekend for coordination and feedback,” said a government official.

“It remains to be seen whether achieving a numerical guideline on current account surpluses and deficits will be possible as the difference in views between countries remains significant. However, we do expect to make some progress in the form of a more general guideline, as G20 members agree that the ongoing currency row could possibly have a devastating effect on efforts to strengthen the global economic recovery.”

Beside the talks between political leaders and finance chiefs, Seoul will also host a global conference of corporate leaders, dubbed the Business Summit, which is positioned as the main source of private sector input for the G20 process. The Seoul Business Summit, to be held Nov. 10 and 11 at the Sheraton Walkerhill Hotel, will be participated in by more than 120 global chief executives and high-profile business people.

It bears further watching whether the G20 leaders will manage to produce something more than diplomatic blather in regard to ending the row over the valuation of currencies and achieving a coherent approach toward the rebalancing of global demand.

Some progress was made at last month’s G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Gyeongju, including an agreement on the redrawing of IMF quotas to increase the clout of developing economies at the expense of the over-represented Europeans.

However, the finance chiefs came short of reaching a meaningful agreement related to the currency frictions other than a verbal pledge to move toward “market-determined exchange rate systems” to levels consistent with market fundamentals and refrain from the “competitive” devaluation of currencies.

The U.S., with the backing of Korea, had suggested that the trade surplus of a country should be capped at 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Countries like China, Germany and Japan, however, denounce the idea of setting specific numerical targets as unrealistic.

Since its first meeting in Pittsburg in 2008, the G20 had vowed to replace the Western-dominated G8 as the primary forum of global economic policy. However, there are concerns the increasing conflict over the organization of world currencies, highlighted by the feud between the U.S. and China, is compromising the solidarity of the G20.

The Americans, frustrated by the slower-than-expected growth of their domestic economy, are pressuring China to let the yuan rise more quickly. The Chinese, on the other hand, are uneasy about the U.S. efforts to use quantitative easing — or printing money to buy government bonds — to devalue the dollar and help American exporters.

Some observers raise concern that the currency row could be preceding a more blatant turn toward protectionism by the involved countries as they desperately attempt to jolt their domestic economies and massage the egos of voters.

In the Gyeongju meetings, the G20 finance ministers agreed to transfer 6 percent shares in IMF quotas from advanced European economies to emerging economies, including Korea and China, and the changes are expected to be approved by G20 leaders at the Seoul summit.

Under the changes, Korea’s quota will rise to 1.8 percent from 1.41 present, while China will see its shares rise to 6.39 percent from 4 percent.