[ANALYSIS] Japan's rearmament to test S. Korean president's policies on Tokyo

In this photo provided by the Joint Staff of the Japanese Self-Defense Force, three F-15 warplanes of the Japanese Self-Defense Force, front, and four F-16 fighters of the U.S. Armed Forces, fly over the East Sea on May 25, 2022. AP-Yonhap

Yoon urged to explore ways to use Japan's arms buildup as opportunity

By Nam Hyun-woo

The Japanese government's approval of a massive rearmament program to counter China and North Korea's threats poses a new task for South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol to look into ways to take advantage of Tokyo's military buildup to serve Seoul's security interests, according to experts.

"The recent updates of Japan's national security strategy now demand South Korea to explore how it will use Japan's military buildup to contribute to the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral security cooperation to counter North Korea's nuclear ambitions," said Jin Chang-soo, the director of Sejong Institute's Center for Japanese Studies.

"As we use lines of credit for contingencies, national security also requires protection tools for contingencies. … Since South Korea needs the trilateral security cooperation to counter the North's threat, there will not likely be a major change in the Yoon government's dovish Japan policy. Rather, the focus should be on how Seoul can take advantage of Japan's defense cost hike as an opportunity to improve its national security and how it can monitor Japan's military expansion transparently."

The advice came after Japan, Friday, unveiled three updated documents on its national security strategies and proclaimed a military buildup, which is seen as the biggest one since World War II and a major breakaway from its defense-only principle.

The highlight of the documents is Tokyo's determination to develop new "counterstrike" capabilities. These capabilities will allow Japan to attack and destroy enemy launch sites that threaten Japan. To enable this, Japan plans to jack up its defense spending to 2 percent of its gross domestic product, up from the current 1 percent, and some of the money will be used to purchase U.S. Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles.

Japan says it decided to attain a more offensive footing to protect itself from increasing threats from China and North Korea -- as taught by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The United States is welcoming the decision, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying, "The documents reshape the ability of our (U.S.-Japan) alliance to promote peace and protect the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world."

But this was not the case for South Korea, which has long held a negative stance on Tokyo's military buildup due to its geopolitical impact on the Korean Peninsula and the history of suffering from Japan's colonial rule.

South Korea's military claims that Japan needs to gain the South Korean government's approval in case it attempts to strike North Korea.

"Exercising its defense force capability on its territory and deploying its military force to the Korean Peninsula is a completely different matter, and the latter requires the South Korean government's approval," a South Korean military official said, citing the country's Constitution that states the peninsula -- both South and North Korea -- as its territory.

South Korea's foreign ministry also said, "If there are matters that concern our national interests and the security of the Korean Peninsula during Japan's use of its counterstrike capabilities, close bilateral consultations and agreements from us are required."

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol shakes hands with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during their summit at a hotel in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Nov.13. Yonhap

Against this backdrop, there are mounting calls by South Korean politicians for a change in Yoon's national security and diplomatic policies involving Japan.

"Through a sweeping overhaul of its defense strategy, Japan has virtually broken away from its defense-only principle, meaning it seeks to become a country capable of staging a war," main opposition Democratic Party of Korea spokesperson Rep. Lim O-kyeong said.

"Even with Japan's ambition, will the Yoon government continue to strengthen trilateral military cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan? And it is a serious concern whether the Yoon government will be able to contain Japan's growing military ambitions with its low-profile diplomacy."

Since taking office in May, Yoon has been focusing on improving frayed ties between Seoul and Tokyo and enhancing the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo security cooperation to counter North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Under this direction, Yoon had two summits with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and two trilateral summits involving U.S. President Joe Biden, during which the leaders stressed their joint response to counter Pyongyang's nuclear and missile threats.

During an interview with Reuters last month, Yoon said, "Japan may not be able to sit idly while North Korean missiles are flying over its territory," which was interpreted as condoning Japan's defense spending increase.

South Korea's National Security Council (NSC) said at a meeting on Sunday, which was held on the occasion of North Korea's launch of two medium-range ballistic missiles, "We will further strengthen the trilateral security cooperation to counter North Korea's threat."

"As the NSC said, we will continue to strengthen security cooperation," an official at the presidential office said when asked about Japan using its counterstrike capabilities without Seoul's approval. "With North Korea's missile and nuclear attempts becoming threats to not only South Korea but also Japan, Japan appears to be having concerns about its own defense. And we believe it is a matter that can be discussed within the framework of security cooperation."