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By Lee Hyo-jin
Escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, triggered by North Korea's pursuit of an "exponential" increase in its nuclear arsenal, are making President Yoon Suk Yeol's "audacious initiative" for Pyongyang's denuclearization look like an increasingly far-fetched idea, according to analysts, Wednesday.
The initiative, proposed by Yoon last year, promises the North Korean government an unprecedented level of economic support in exchange for the country ultimately giving up its nuclear weapons. Yoon suggested a list of economic incentives such as large-scale food aid, providing assistance for power generation and building infrastructure in the country.
However, the initiative is facing an uncertain future at this point, with Yoon sticking to a hardline stance on North Korea amid its rising belligerence in recent months.
Last week, the president said his administration will make North Korea pay the price for its nuclear threats. On Tuesday, Yoon said he will "not give a single penny to North Korea if it continues to develop nuclear weapons." He also ordered the Ministry of Unification to disclose the reality of the human rights situation in North Korea, a sensitive topic for the totalitarian state.
Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, believes that Yoon's audacious plan is losing momentum.
"In order for the plan to kick off, North Korea should first show significant steps toward denuclearization. But realistically speaking, Pyongyang will not give up its advanced nuclear prowess," he told The Korea Times.
On the previous day, North Korea released photos of its Hwasan-31, which appeared to be a miniaturized nuclear warhead. The state media reported that its leader Kim Jong-un had called for boosting the production of weapons-grade nuclear materials to exponentially expand the country's nuclear arsenal.
"To this day, there hasn't been any country which relinquished nuclear weapons that it developed on its own," Hong said, stressing that North Korea will not be the first country to do so.
Nonetheless, the researcher anticipated that the South Korean government will not officially abandon the denuclearization roadmap.
"Although chances of materializing the initiative seem slim, the plan itself sends a strong political message to the international community. It is important to consistently ask for support from other countries on achieving North Korea's denuclearization," he said.
Unification Minister Kwon Young-se visited Tokyo last week to upgrade bilateral cooperation with Japan on North Korea issues including Yoon's proposed initiative. North Korean state media slammed Kwon's move, Monday, saying that "he begged for support for the 'audacious plan of some kind' that has been already trashed."
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University said the initiative is hanging in the balance due to North Korea's reluctance to come to the negotiating table.
"South Korea and the United States have repeatedly said they are open to talks. But North Korea has no intention to negotiate, which would mean that it has to surrender its nuclear weapons to some extent," he said.
Nevertheless, the professor was quite optimistic that Pyongyang will ultimately turn to negotiations, which will enable Yoon to make progress with his plan. Park cautiously predicted that the North Korean leader may restart talks after conducting a seventh nuclear test this year, and use it as leverage in negotiations.
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