By Kim Hyo-jin
Moon Jae-in, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), is maintaining his strong lead opinion polls showed Monday. Two other contenders, lagging far behind the frontrunner, are struggling to take the runner-up position.
As support for Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party is rapidly falling, the new polls suggest that Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party (LKP) is emerging as a strong competitor to him.
The latest STI poll conducted over the weekend had Moon with support of 46 percent, while Ahn's had fallen to 19.2 percent, the first time his rating has dropped below 20 percent since the start of April.
Hong was hot on the trail of Ahn with 17.4 percent, his highest rating ever. Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung's support stood at 8.2 percent, as Bareun Party candidate Yoo Seong-min's remained at 4.8 percent.
In the poll, 33 percent of the respondents said they changed their favorite candidates, and 46.6 percent of them, the largest figure, said they shifted support from Ahn to other contenders.
Analysts said that the support base for Ahn is unstable because it consisted of conservative voters who were left as "strays" following the collapse of the Park Geun-hye government.
Other surveys showed a similar trend.
According to a poll by Realmeter, Moon had support of 44.1 percent, while Ahn had 21.8 percent, a steep fall by 15.4 percentage points from an earlier poll conducted between April 7 and 8. Hong closely followed Ahn with 16.6 percent, up 8.2 percentage points from the earlier poll. Sim gained 8.5 percent and Yoo, 4 percent.
"Moon and Hong's popularity are backed by loyal supporters," the polling agency said. It showed that 83.2 percent of those who supported Moon in early April still favor him and 83.7 percent of those who supported Hong still remain loyal.
But Ahn has only 54 percent of his initial backers on his side now. Sixteen percent of his previous supporters now favor Hong and 13.4 percent, Moon.
With boosted morale, Hong said he was sure of turning the race around on election day. "I have made it a two-way competition (with Moon) despite a rough start in the race. If the current trend continues, I will be able to secure victory in the end," he wrote on Facebook.
In the country's election history, there have been four cases where a third-favored candidate in opinion polls took second place in the actual election, according to Gallup Korea.
All cases were where a candidate of a third party or a non-establishment party was overtaken by a contender from the largest liberal or conservative party. Rivalry between Ahn and Hong is in line with such a pattern.
The change of the runner-up and frontrunner happened only once in the 2002 race where the liberal candidate Roh Moo-hyun gained the lead over Lee Hoi-chang of the conservative Grand National Party.
The National Election Commission bans polling agencies from disclosing results of surveys starting six days before the election — May 3 this year.
Moon Jae-in, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), is maintaining his strong lead opinion polls showed Monday. Two other contenders, lagging far behind the frontrunner, are struggling to take the runner-up position.
As support for Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party is rapidly falling, the new polls suggest that Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party (LKP) is emerging as a strong competitor to him.
The latest STI poll conducted over the weekend had Moon with support of 46 percent, while Ahn's had fallen to 19.2 percent, the first time his rating has dropped below 20 percent since the start of April.
Hong was hot on the trail of Ahn with 17.4 percent, his highest rating ever. Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung's support stood at 8.2 percent, as Bareun Party candidate Yoo Seong-min's remained at 4.8 percent.
In the poll, 33 percent of the respondents said they changed their favorite candidates, and 46.6 percent of them, the largest figure, said they shifted support from Ahn to other contenders.
Analysts said that the support base for Ahn is unstable because it consisted of conservative voters who were left as "strays" following the collapse of the Park Geun-hye government.
Hong of the rightist LKP has regained support from traditional supporters returning back to his camp as the election approaches. According to analysts, Hong could gain more support from undecided conservative voters who have not yet been reflected in polls.
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Other surveys showed a similar trend.
According to a poll by Realmeter, Moon had support of 44.1 percent, while Ahn had 21.8 percent, a steep fall by 15.4 percentage points from an earlier poll conducted between April 7 and 8. Hong closely followed Ahn with 16.6 percent, up 8.2 percentage points from the earlier poll. Sim gained 8.5 percent and Yoo, 4 percent.
"Moon and Hong's popularity are backed by loyal supporters," the polling agency said. It showed that 83.2 percent of those who supported Moon in early April still favor him and 83.7 percent of those who supported Hong still remain loyal.
But Ahn has only 54 percent of his initial backers on his side now. Sixteen percent of his previous supporters now favor Hong and 13.4 percent, Moon.
With boosted morale, Hong said he was sure of turning the race around on election day. "I have made it a two-way competition (with Moon) despite a rough start in the race. If the current trend continues, I will be able to secure victory in the end," he wrote on Facebook.
In the country's election history, there have been four cases where a third-favored candidate in opinion polls took second place in the actual election, according to Gallup Korea.
All cases were where a candidate of a third party or a non-establishment party was overtaken by a contender from the largest liberal or conservative party. Rivalry between Ahn and Hong is in line with such a pattern.
The change of the runner-up and frontrunner happened only once in the 2002 race where the liberal candidate Roh Moo-hyun gained the lead over Lee Hoi-chang of the conservative Grand National Party.
The National Election Commission bans polling agencies from disclosing results of surveys starting six days before the election — May 3 this year.
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