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| Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands during their meeting in Vladivostok, April 25, 2019. AP-Yonhap |
This is the last in a series of interviews with senior politicians in Korea and executives at leading think tanks in Washington over the issue of the country's provision of direct military support to Kyiv as the Ukraine war passes the one-year mark since Russia launched its attack, ending decades of relative stability in Europe. ― ED.
US security expert says Seoul hasn't completely ruled out sending other types of weapons to Ukraine
By Kim Yoo-chul
Despite growing calls for South Korea to provide lethal aid to Ukraine since the embattled country was invaded by Russian forces last year, the South Korean government has only agreed to provide non-lethal aid and some weapons components, such as parts for AHS Krab howitzers made in Poland in 2022.
South Korea's total amount of financial assistance to Ukraine by the end of this year will reach some $230 million, although Seoul's policy not to provide lethal aid to Kyiv hasn't changed as the country's laws prevent it from arming countries engaged in armed conflicts. South Korea approved the sale of artillery shells to the U.S. last year, which the country's defense ministry stressed was only under the principle that the U.S. should be the final end-user.
While a poll conducted last year by Gallup Korea showed that only 15 percent of South Koreans support the idea of sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, the main point of concern for South Korea was that Moscow's invasion of Kyiv is deepening Russia's ties with North Korea. Washington officials are saying that Russia's growing ties with China and even North Korea pose a direct threat to South Korea's national security.
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| Irina Tsukerman |
"But doing this will only happen after firm commitments by NATO allies for the provision of additional incentives (to South Korea) besides pressure and repeated requests," Tsukerman said in a recent interview. However, she didn't elaborate further on if the South Korean government was in talks regarding the specifics of incentives in exchange for changing its policy.
South Korea has stated its continued commitment toward the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), an international treaty that regulates the global trade in traditional arms and aims to eradicate any illicit trade of conventional arms by establishing international standards restricting arms transfers.
But Tsukerman, also a New York-based national security lawyer and geopolitical analyst, assessed that the crisis in Ukraine is not an example of a "typical application of the ATT" as Ukraine is fighting a defensive war, whereas Russia is committing war crimes against civilians. In addition, defense provisions there are the result of review by Ukraine, NATO and NATO's partners.
"There would be a great degree of transparency with regard to the usage of weapons provided in Ukraine. These weapons are necessary to save civilian lives. That is surely the best and most justified use of any type of weapons. A provision of munitions is also subject to export reviews ― therefore, the weapons that the U.S. and others are asking South Korea to export fall under the terms of ATT," she explained.
Tsukerman went on to say that the language of the ATT doesn't outright ban all of these weapons because it encourages vigorous review to restrict the sale of weapons for offensive purposes particularly by non-compliant countries with aggressive and illegal defense policies.
"The ATT excludes antique small arms and light weapons or their replicas. In no case will antique small arms and light weapons include those manufactured after 1899," she said.
Referring to the situation South Korea is now facing as it comes under pressure to directly supply weapons to Ukraine given that it's the world's eighth-largest arms exporter, the expert stressed that South Korea is positioned to produce weapons that are compatible with those used by NATO countries and could be able to manufacture them much faster than other EU suppliers.
"The EU and U.S. are continuing to pressure South Korea to change its policy to allow the export of domestically manufactured weapons to Ukraine as part of an assistance package. Some view Seoul's recent approval for the export of weapons components as a first step to paving the way for a change in policy, which is also comparable to Morocco's agreement to send renovated T-72B tanks to Ukraine," Tsukerman said.
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| Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping shake hands after delivering a joint statement following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, March 21. AFP-Yonhap |
Morocco became the first African country to send heavy weapons to Ukraine. Its policy change from neutrality toward the Russian invasion of Ukraine signifies the country's clear U-turn toward the U.S. and Europe as the Moroccan government acknowledged that its neighbor Algeria is getting friendlier with European countries too.
Russia-China-North Korea alliance
Tsukerman said Russia is using the Ukraine crisis as a chance to boost its military partnership with like-minded countries that include China, Iran and North Korea. According to the expert, South Korea's national security is being challenged by Moscow's alliance with Beijing, Pyongyang and even Tehran.
"A Russia-China-North Korea military alliance can turn Asian states such as South Korea into hostages," she said. "China looks at South Korea as a tributary and vassal state. It is in Seoul's interests to become part of an international coalition opposed to this dangerous axis. Russia has never stopped its military cooperation with North Korea. North Korea is providing Russia with various forms of assistance."
This assessment came a few days after White House National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson John Kirby said Washington has evidence that Moscow is seeking to send a delegation to Pyongyang as part of efforts to get weapons from North Korea in exchange for much-needed commodities and food. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said U.S. intelligence suggested that China was considering providing ammunitions to Russia.
Any arms deals with Russia could be a violation of U.N. resolutions that ban North Korea from either exporting or importing lethal weapons from other countries. So far, North Korea is the only country aside from Russia and Syria to recognize the autonomy of Russian-occupied territories ― Donetsk and Luhansk ― in eastern Ukraine.
"Combating such complex transactional threats in isolation makes no sense. Anyone affected by one will be affected by all of them since all of these countries also share surveillance technology, intelligence and sanctions circumvention methods, and assist each other in operations against each other's targets. So, Russia isn't just a threat to Ukraine. By being a part of this alliance, it is also a threat to South Korea," she explained, adding that South Korea doesn't have to overestimate Russia's strength as Moscow's advantages are only due to its partnerships with Beijing and Pyongyang.
Washington officials still worry about a Russian victory, which would create further instability in Europe and call into question the effectiveness of U.S. policies to uphold the rules-based order. Moscow recently placed Seoul on its list of "unfriendly" nations and said that South Korea's joining of the U.S.-led sanctions on Russia will impact Moscow's role when it comes to possible peace efforts regarding North Korea.
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