S. Korea-Russia ties sour after Yoon's remarks on Ukraine war

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Russian President Vladimir Putin

Moscow feared to freeze South Korean companies' assets there

By Nam Hyun-woo

Relations between South Korea and Russia are deteriorating rapidly. Moscow has made thorny responses to President Yoon Suk Yeol's remarks that Seoul may provide military aid to Ukraine if there is a situation that the international community cannot condone.

Apparently, South Korea made the shift in its Ukraine policy seeing greater benefits from answering U.S. and European calls to provide military support to Kyiv rather than maintaining lukewarm relations with Russia. However, Moscow's angry responses have cast a cloudy outlook on the diplomatic circumstances in Northeast Asia.

The South Korean presidential office said Thursday that Yoon's comments during Wednesday's interview with Reuters were addressing “principles based on common sense,” and “Russia's future actions will determine how South Korea will make follow-up measures.”

“What Yoon said in the interview was an expression of South Korea's efforts in a hypothetical situation, where there are major massacres or humanitarian issues that the international community cannot condone,” the official said.

“The Russian government made comments on what didn't happen, and this means how South Korea will think about this issue depends on Russia's actions down the road.”

The comments came after the Kremlin said on Wednesday that South Korea has adopted “an unfriendly position towards Moscow” and that supplying military aid to Ukraine would “signify a certain involvement in the conflict.”

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, also wrote on his Telegram channel that “I wonder what South Koreans will say when they see the latest Russian weapons are in the hands of their closest neighbors ― our partners from North Korea,” adding that “Quid pro quo,” meaning “favor for favor.”

This is not the first time that Russia showed sensitivity to South Korea's possible military aid to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last year that the Seoul-Moscow relationship will be destroyed if South Korea arms Ukraine, pointing out how South Korea would react if Russia resumed cooperation with North Korea.

Given this background, Yoon's remarks are seen as an outcome of the South Korean government's decision that benefits from answering U.S. and European calls for the provision of military support are greater than those stemming from maintaining lukewarm relations with Russia.

Recently, Russia has been signaling closer relations with North Korea as part of its effort to resist U.S.-led organization. By drawing a line in its relations with Russia, Seoul can seek stronger leverage in persuading the international community to make greater efforts in countering Pyongyang's nuclear and missile ambitions.

Also, boosts in the South Korean defense industry's exports to NATO members could also be one of the benefits that Yoon has considered.

After he took office last year, South Korea has been strengthening its connections with the treaty organization. The president is promoting the defense industry as one of the country's export drivers. Against this backdrop, South Korean defense companies are scoring lucrative export deals with European countries.

On the other hand, South Korea's economic relations with Russia is stuck in a downward spiral. According to Korea International Trade Association, South Korea's trade with Russia stood at $21.14 billion in 2022, down 22.7 percent from a year earlier. Exports declined by 36.6 percent year-on-year at $6.33 billion, and the trade deficit has been continuing since 2009.

Hyundai Motor plant in Saint Petersburg in Russia / Courtesy of Hyundai Motor

Amid the weakening economic ties, concerns are remaining that Russia may freeze South Korean companies' assets in Russia, such as plants and manufacturing facilities.

More than 150 South Korean companies operate in Russia, with Hyundai Motor Group having 18 branches. The carmaker is now attempting to sell its plant in Saint Petersburg which has been idling since March last year. Plants of Samsung and LG near Moscow also have been idling since last year.

“Though rhetoric can be exchanged between the two countries, it remains to be seen whether the rhetoric could become actual damage for South Korean companies,” said Wi Sung-lac, a former Korean ambassador to Russia and ex-chief nuclear envoy to the six-party talks.

“The problem is that South Korean diplomacy is unfamiliar with confrontational situations, while Russia is very good at this. It is worrisome whether Seoul can smoothly manage a tit-for-tat situation stemming from Russia's strong responses.”