Seoul's new stance on Ukraine war expected to affect inter-Korean relations

President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a speech during a ceremony to mark the 63rd anniversary of the April 19 Revolution at the April 19th National Cemetery in Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

Seoul adopted "unfriendly position" towards Moscow, Kremlin says

By Nam Hyun-woo

President Yoon Suk Yeol signaled a shift in South Korea's policy stance on the war between Ukraine and Russia, opening the door for Seoul to possibly provide military aid to Kyiv. Experts said this will likely have a ripple effect on the diplomatic dynamics in Northeast Asia, especially inter-Korean relations.

In an interview with Reuters, released on Wednesday, Yoon said there is now more of a possibility for Seoul to provide military aid to Ukraine, in case of intolerable behaviors such as large-scale attacks on civilians.

"If there is a situation the international community cannot condone, such as any large-scale attacks on civilians, massacres or serious violation of the laws of war, it might be difficult for us to insist only on humanitarian or financial support," Yoon said.

He continued by saying that he believes there will be no limitations to support the illegally invaded country, but he will "take the most appropriate measures" considering South Korea's relations with the parties engaged in the war.

The comments were interpreted as a shift in South Korea's stance regarding its support for Ukraine. Despite calls from the United States and other Western countries, Seoul's official stance was limiting its Kyiv-bound support concerning humanitarian aid, though there were reports indicating that the country indirectly supported ammunitions by making up for a U.S. inventory shortage of 155-millimeter artillery shells.

In response to Yoon's comments, the Kremlin said, Wednesday, "South Korea has adopted an unfriendly position towards Moscow" and supplying military aid to Ukraine would "signify a certain involvement in the conflict."

Seoul's presidential office issued a statement saying it "will not comment on the Kremlin's remarks regarding a hypothetical situation," and added, "We advise a thorough read of the Reuters interview" without specifying to whom it was offering the advice.

Experts expressed mixed opinions on Seoul's new stance related to Ukraine, but agreed that this will have an impact on inter-Korean relations.

"Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said South Korea's relations with Russia will be destroyed if Seoul decides to supply weapons and ammunitions to Ukraine, and Russia will help North Korea," said Kim Joon-hyung, a professor at Handong Global University and former chancellor of the Korean National Diplomatic Academy.

"Yoon's remarks will give Russia greater freedom in helping North Korea, and this will only strengthen the bloc of North Korea, Russia and China as a rival to that of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan bloc."

EXCLUSIVEUkraine welcomes South Korea's gesture of possible arms support

2023-04-20 09:52 | Foreign Affairs

Russia warns South Korea against arming Ukraine

2023-04-19 22:50 | World

Kim was referring to Putin's remarks at the Valdai International Discussion Club meeting in October, where the Russian leader said Seoul's ammunition support to Ukraine will "destroy our (Seoul-Moscow) relationship," pointing out how South Korea would react if Russia resumed cooperating with North Korea.

So far, there have been signs that Russia and North Korea are getting closer, with Russia claiming Pyongyang's consecutive missile threats are "a response to pressures from the U.S." Though Russia is also part of the international sanctions against the North, Moscow will likely take a more proactive stance in helping Pyongyang, because Seoul has dropped hints at providing military aid for Ukraine.

"Yoon's comments were an unnecessary attempt to put South Korea into the front line of the Ukraine war by unnecessarily determining our enemy," Kim said.

Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, also noted that Russia may show a gesture of strengthening its relations with North Korea as a protest against Seoul's new stance on the Ukraine issue, but it will likely be more confined to rhetorical actions citing international sanctions.

"It is quite obvious that Russia will not be happy about Yoon's comments, and in response, Russia may make a gesture of strengthening its relations with North Korea in order to sway the current environment," Go said.

"The greatest concern would be possible missile and nuclear cooperation between the North and Russia, but it will be unlikely given the various international sanctions that impede such cooperation. Thus, the responses could be limited to just rhetoric."

Unlike Kim, Go said Yoon's comments on supporting Ukraine are strategic steps, which came after considerations regarding the progress of the Ukraine war.

The analyst noted that Yoon set a condition for non-humanitarian support, which he will consider when there is a large-scale attack on civilians or a full-scale war.

The Ukraine War is now showing signs of heading toward a stalemate, with hard-fought battles being limited to certain regions, thus, in reality, making it slim for Seoul to actually provide military aid to Ukraine.

"This means that South Korea has made a strong voice on supporting Ukraine ― as the U.S. and other European states have done ― while having a low possibility of providing military support," Go said. "This can show that Seoul is now on the same side with its allies and friendly nations on the Ukraine issue, and clearing its ambiguities on global issues."

'Ultra-high-performance weapons'

During the interview, Yoon also noted that South Korea is developing "ultra-high-performance, high-power weapons" to fend off the North's threats.

Although Yoon did not explain what those weapons are, pundits assume that he was referring to a blackout bomb, which neutralizes power grids and cuts the enemy's electric power supply, or electromagnetic pulse weapons.

Also mentioned are the Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile and hypersonic missiles. South Korea's military is set to test-launch the Hyunmoo-5, which is capable of carrying a heavy warhead weighing up to nine tons.