[ANALYSIS] Yoon-Kishida meeting raises expectations of 3-way summit with China

President Yoon Suk Yeol applauds with participants of the ASEAN+3 summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Nov. 12, 2022. From left are Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Yoon, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Yonhap

Korean, Japanese leaders agree on need for trilateral cooperation

By Nam Hyun-woo

President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recognized the necessity of resuming high-level talks between South Korea, Japan and China when they held a summit in Tokyo last week.

This came initially as a surprise, because the two countries have stressed the importance of the trilateral cooperation between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington to counter North Korea's nuclear threats.

With tensions increasing between China and the United States over regional issues including the South China Sea, experts said resuming a trilateral summit involving Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing is possible.

After the Yoon-Kishida summit, March 16, the Japanese prime minister said at a joint press conference that he and the South Korean leader were on the same page regarding "the importance of resuming a high-level process between Japan, South Korea and China."

A senior aide to Yoon also said, "The remark can be interpreted as improvements in Seoul-Tokyo relations providing better positions for the countries to hold a trilateral summit." He added that "we (South Korea) are also expecting the trilateral event as the host country."

The aide was referring to the suspended South Korea-China-Japan Summit. The inaugural edition of the event was held in December 2008, when the leaders of the three countries met in Fukuoka, Japan.

Since then, there have been seven more three-way summits, with the last one taking place in December 2019 in Chengdu, China. However, due to soured relations between South Korea and Japan over the wartime forced labor issue, the trilateral summit has been suspended.

Also, the COVID-19 pandemic weighed heavily on international exchanges and the U.S.-China rivalry began to emerge, making both Seoul and Tokyo engage in respective balancing acts.

From left, Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pose for a photo after the eighth trilateral summit between the three countries in Chengdu, China, Dec. 4, 2019. AP-Yonhap

Against this backdrop, the proposal by Yoon and Kishida to resume trilateral talks with China is seen as a gesture showing that strengthening relations with Washington is not aimed at excluding Beijing.

"The proposal seems to be aimed at calming China's concerns that South Korea and Japan are only leaning toward the U.S.," said Jin Chang-soo, the director of Sejong Institute's Center for Japanese Studies. "The trilateral summit, if facilitated, can showcase that the three countries can cooperate in shaping the situation in the Northeast Asian region."

In the past, China was relatively positive about resuming the trilateral summit, as the event has played a role in decentralizing Seoul and Tokyo from strengthening ties with the U.S.

However, given that blocs have been forming in Northeast Asia, with South Korea, Japan and the U.S. forming one and China, Russia and North Korea constituting the other, it remains to be seen if Beijing will positively respond to the call.

"This may be an uneasy choice for China," said Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University. "In order to prevent South Korea, Japan and Washington from getting closer, China also has to make an overture to the two countries. But at the same time, even if the three countries were to hold a trilateral summit, chances are slim for them to issue a joint statement given their differences on pending matters, including the South China Sea, supply chain disruptions and even North Korea."

During the trilateral summit in 2019, the three countries agreed on "future cooperation between the three countries," "peace and stability of the region," "the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" and "open and reciprocal cooperation," but did not tap into the details of pending issues between the three countries.

"If the trilateral summit was to resume, the best common agenda could be the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.

"However, there could be differences in terms of the methodology. Seoul and Tokyo will likely say China should play a role in controlling North Korea's nuclear ambitions at the U.N. Security Council, while China will likely take the so-called 'freeze-for-freeze' approach. This will likely only reconfirm each side's position."

The freeze-for-freeze agreement is China's idea that the Seoul-Washington combined military exercise and Pyongyang's nuclear programs should be stopped simultaneously to achieve the denuclearization of the peninsula.

A Seoul-based analyst who asked to remain anonymous said economic cooperation was an agenda for the three countries to share their ideas without sharp differences, but the current trend of security issues converging with economic interests may make it difficult for the three countries to set up such an agenda.

Along with that, arranging Chinese President Xi Jinping's attendance in the summit is a tough question that Seoul and Tokyo should deal with.

So far, China has been dispatching its premier to the summit, while Seoul and Tokyo have been sending their leaders. With analysts saying new Chinese Premier Li Qiang signals a weaker role for its state council compared to his predecessor Li Keqiang, who attended the last three summits, Seoul and Tokyo may contemplate whether they should send their second-highest-ranking officials ― South Korea's prime minister and Japan's deputy prime minister ― to the summit.

"If China sends its premier again, the summit may end up becoming hollow," Yang said. "The two governments should determine whether the summit will have a symbolic meaning or a practical purpose."