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By Kang Seung-woo
With the global order shifting to a new "Cold War" paradigm, where North Korea partners with China and Russia against a U.S.-led trilateral alliance with South Korea and Japan, Pyongyang is expected to go its own way of advancing its nuclear program, according to diplomatic observers.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un noted that the structure of international relations has been apparently shifted to the new Cold War system, further expediting a push for multipolarization, and accused the United States of establishing a military bloc similar to NATO, in a plenary meeting of its ruling Workers' Party last week. In addition, he hinted that his country will focus heavily on the security situation and its defense plans.
"I think North Korea views Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington as aligned in their policy approach with the goal of denuclearization and sees little value in dialogue with either of them. Pyongyang is not interested in talks that continue to pursue denuclearization and holds out little hope for concessions that they seek. As a result, North Korea will continue to grow its military capabilities," U.S. Naval War College professor Terence Roehrig said.
China, North Korea's biggest ally, has been engaged in a strategic competition with the U.S., while Russia, another enabler of Pyongyang's provocations, is in conflict with the U.S. and other Western countries due to its invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns that the North Korean nuclear issue has been pushed to the back burner of the Joe Biden administration's foreign policy, giving it the opportunity to concentrate more on modernizing its nuclear arsenal.
However, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, said differing views between the two have led to the lack of diplomatic attention toward North Korea.
"Traditionally, North Korea has not been the main issue on Washington's agenda. In the past, the Middle East and terrorism were more important, as well as managing China's rise. Today, competition with China and Russia's war on Ukraine are more important than North Korea for the Biden administration," Pacheco Pardo said.
"But past U.S. administrations found the time to deal with North Korea in spite of other, more pressing foreign policy priorities. So this could be the case with the Biden administration. However, the positions of the U.S. and North Korea are very far apart right now. In my view, this is the main reason why the Bided administration see little reason to focus on North Korea, rather than other foreign policy priorities."
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said policies of various stakeholders on the North Korean nuclear issue interact with each other, but it is important to clarify whether factors operate more as causes or effects.
"The Biden administration may be more focused on China and Russia, but its lack of diplomatic attention toward North Korea is more a result of the Kim regime's recalcitrance rather than a reason for it," he said.
Roehrig said the U.S. has the bandwidth to engage in dialogue but North Korea has shown little interest in doing so.
"After the Biden administration announced the results of its policy review on North Korea at the start of its tenure that showed few differences from the Obama administration, Pyongyang has likely decided that there is little to be gained in talks," he said.
During the plenum, Kim highlighted the importance and necessity of mass-producing tactical nuclear weapons and called for an exponential increase of the country's nuclear arsenal.
"As long as there is no engagement between Washington and Pyongyang, the Kim regime will have no incentive to slow down development of its nuclear weapons program," Pacheco Pardo said.
"In any case, North Korea has made clear that it considers itself a nuclear power. So even if there were negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea, Pyongyang would continue to seek ways to improve its nuclear weapons capabilities."
Currently, the South Korean government has urged China to play a role in resolving the North Korean issue, saying that Pyongyang's return to dialogue is in the common interest of Beijing as well as Seoul and Washington ― although experts remain skeptical of a possible Chinese engagement.
"China may quietly encourage North Korea to resume dialogue but if Pyongyang is not interested, there is little Beijing can do to force it to the table. I am not optimistic that much will change for the time being," Roehrig said.
Easley added, "China's support of North Korea is related to geopolitical dynamics around the Korean Peninsula but is also a major enabler of Pyongyang's provocations."
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