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North Korea
Mon, June 5, 2023 | 23:27
North Korea passes critical anniversary without provocation
北 당 창건일 '조용'…中당대회 등 계기 도발가능성 여전
Posted : 2017-10-10 17:11
Updated : 2017-10-11 11:32
Jun Ji-hye
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A North Korean village in Kaepung County, South Hwanghae Province, is seen from an observatory on Ganghwa Island, Tuesday, the founding anniversary of the North's ruling Workers' Party of Korea. Pyongyang's did not conduct any military provocations on the anniversary. / Korea Times photo by Hong In-kee
A North Korean village in Kaepung County, South Hwanghae Province, is seen from an observatory on Ganghwa Island, Tuesday, the founding anniversary of the North's ruling Workers' Party of Korea. Pyongyang's did not conduct any military provocations on the anniversary. / Korea Times photo by Hong In-kee

Allies keeping close watch on possible missile launch


By Jun Ji-hye

North Korea celebrated the founding anniversary of its ruling Workers' Party of Korea, Tuesday, without carrying out any military provocations.

But the South Korean military said it is continuously monitoring and tracking any developments in the North as the regime there could commit a large-scale provocation at any time.

"We are maintaining a thorough readiness posture in preparation for North Korea's possible provocations," said Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) spokesman Army Col. Roh Jae-cheon, refusing to elaborate further.

An official from Cheong Wa Dae also told reporters the North was capable of firing a missile at any time, but currently there were no signs of an imminent launch, such as fueling activities.

Sources noted movements of personnel and equipment in the North's missile facilities have been consistently monitored.

The repressive state has been widely expected to fire a long-range ballistic missile on or around the anniversary.

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Russian legislators, who visited Pyongyang last week, said Saturday the Kim Jong-un regime plans to test a more powerful missile capable of hitting the West Coast of the United States.

Some observers also raised the possibility of the North conducting a hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean. North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told reporters in New York during his visit to attend the United Nations General Assembly last month that this was a possibility.

The North fired two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in July and conducted its sixth nuclear test Sept. 3, which it claimed was a hydrogen bomb that could be carried by an ICBM.

Experts said the North would not do something so risky as it would result in armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has been hinting at military action against Pyongyang.

"North Korea seems to be taking a cautious attitude, as any large-scale provocation would lead to a tough response from the United States," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University.

Trump said Saturday "only one thing" will work in coping with the North, voicing his strong objection to negotiations with the Kim regime. The U.S. president did not clarify what the one thing was, with observers construing it as referring to military action.

For his part, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis urged the U.S. Army "to be ready" Monday in case President Trump orders action against the North.

Speaking to the Association of the United States Army Convention in Washington, Mattis said diplomatic and economic efforts to resolve the North Korea issue peacefully are currently underway, but a military option should be ready if those efforts fail.

Military officials here said it is still hard to rule out the possibility of additional provocations, pointing out that the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, scheduled for Oct. 18, could be another occasion for such actions.

The officials added the militaries of South Korea and the U.S. have stepped up their reconnaissance operations.




北 당 창건일 '조용'…中당대회 등 계기 도발가능성 여전

트럼프 내달 방한 때까지 긴장 이어질듯


한미 군 당국은 북한이 노동당 창건기념일인 10일 탄도미사일 발사 등에 나설 수 있다고 보고 관련 동향을 밀착 감시하고 있지만, 이날 오후까지 도발이 임박했다는 징후는 없는 것으로 전해졌다.

이에 따라 북한이 특별한 군사적 도발 없이 당 창건기념일을 넘기는 것 아니냐는 관측이 나오고 있다.

북한 김정은 노동당 위원장이 지난달 21일 미국을 향해 '대가를 반드시 받아낼 것'이라고 위협하는 등 도발을 사실상 예고한 상황에서, 노동당 창건 72주년인 10일을 전후한 시점이 도발 'D-데이'가 될 것이라는 관측이 적지 않게 제기돼 왔다.

문재인 대통령과 여야 4당 대표의 지난달 27일 만찬회동에서도 '10월 10일 혹은 18일(중국 19차 공산당대회 개막일)을 전후로 북한의 추가 도발이 예상된다'는 대외비 보고서가 공유되기도 했다.

더욱이 최근 방북한 러시아의 안톤 모로조프 의원은 교도통신과의 전화인터뷰에서 북한이 10일 미국 본토에 도달할 수 있는 개량된 대륙간탄도미사일(ICBM)을 시험 발사할 가능성이 있다고 주장하기도 했다.

북한이 이날 도발하지 않을 가능성에 무게가 실리면서 그 이유를 두고 다양한 분석이 제기되고 있다.

우선 북한이 아직 군사적으로 준비가 덜 됐을 가능성이 있다. '초강경 조치 검토'를 언급한 김정은의 지난달 성명에 걸맞은 고강도 도발을 준비하는 데 시간이 걸릴 수 있다는 분석이다.

김동엽 경남대 극동문제연구소 교수는 '북한이 기술적인 준비를 하고 있을 가능성이 크다'고 말했다. ICBM급인 '화성-14형'을 발사하더라도 대기권 재진입 뒤 탄두를 폭발시켜 재진입 기술을 증명하려 할 수 있는데, 이를 위해선 면밀한 준비가 필요하다는 것이다.

김 교수는 '북한은 (기념일보다는) 필요한 시기에 맞춰 쏜다'면서 '최대한 원하는 것을 얻을 수 있는 시점을 여러 변수를 고려해 판단할 것'이라고 말했다.

우리 정부도 북한이 언제든 도발에 나설 수 있다고 보고 경계를 늦추지 않고 있다. 정부 당국자는 '앞으로도 북한이 마음만 먹으면 도발의 계기로 삼을 수 있는 일정들이 적지 않다'고 말했다.

오는 18일 개막하는 제19차 중국 공산당 전국대표대회에 맞춰 도발할 가능성도 있다.

시진핑 중국 국가주석이 지난 5년의 업적을 정리하고 집권 후반기의 국정운영 방향을 제시하는 자리로, 북한은 도발을 통해 대북제재 강도를 높이고 있는 중국에 '더는 미국의 제재에 협조하지 마라'는 메시지를 보내려 할 수 있다.

내달 초 이뤄질 예정인 트럼프 대통령의 한·일·중 순방에 맞춰 한·미·일 3국 공조를 흔들기 위해 도발 카드를 꺼낼 가능성도 있다.

그러나 한편에서는 북한이 미국의 군사적 대응 움직임에 신경을 써 당분간 도발을 자제할 가능성이 있다는 관측도 나온다.

트럼프 미국 대통령은 지난 7일(현지시간) 트위터에 올린 글에서 '(전임) 대통령들과 그 정부는 25년간 북한에 얘기를 해왔으며, 많은 합의가 이뤄졌고, 막대한 돈도 지불했으나 효과가 없었다'면서 '유감이다, 그러나 단 한 가지는 효과가 있을 것'이라고 말했다. 그는 '단 한 가지'가 무엇인지 구체적으로 밝히지 않았지만 군사적 옵션을 염두에 둔 발언인 것으로 보인다.

고유환 동국대 교수는 '트럼프 대통령이 과거에는 모든 선택지가 테이블 위에 있다는 식이었는데 최근에는 선택지가 하나로 좁혀졌다는 취지의 높은 수위의 경고 메시지를 보내고 있다'면서 '북한 입장에선 함부로 빌미를 제공하지 말자고 판단했을 수 있다'고 말했다.(연합)
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