Can Moon finish his term without lame duck period?

President Moon Jae-in speaks to the media after attending a meeting of central Europe's informal cooperation body, the Visegrad Group, or V4, in Budapest, Hungary, Thursday (local time). AP-Yonhap

President maintains solid approval rating despite harsh criticism of policies

By Jung Da-min

With about six months left before President Moon Jae-in leaves office, his support is still hovering at around 40 percent, far higher than the approval rates of other former presidents in their final year, which often fell below 20 percent or 30 percent.

The solid high approval rate is notable especially when so many people are critical of his policies, specifically those on real estate.

According to a poll conducted on 1,000 adults from Nov. 2 to 4 by Gallup Korea, Moon's approval rating stood at 37 percent. In the previous nine weeks, the rate fluctuated between 36 percent and 41 percent.

In the latest poll, 25 percent of those who approved of Moon's job performance said they acknowledge his diplomatic activities, followed by 20 percent who recognized his COVID-19 response.

Meantime, 37 percent of those who disapproved of Moon's performance cited his real estate policy failures, followed by 14 percent who picked poor economic policies in general.

People in their 30s, 40s and 50s showed relatively high approval rates at 44 percent, 51 percent and 37 percent, respectively. In the 18 to 29, age group, about 34 percent supported the President, while for those over 60 this rose to 25 percent.

Political watchers attribute Moon's relatively high approval rating in his last year in office to his stable leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, a solid support base among members of the country's liberal bloc who back his reform policy drives, and the absence of an alternative political force for people to choose.

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They also say Moon's solid approval rate, despite receiving criticism for policy failures especially in the economic and real estate sectors, has some implications for the next presidential election slated for March 9.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, left, and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres greet President Moon Jae-in, at the U.N. Climate Summit COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, Monday (local time). AP-Yonhap

Bae Jong-chan, an opinion poll expert and head of Insight K, said he believes Moon's approval rating could remain between 37 percent and 40 percent until his final days in office.

He cited three reasons behind the President's relatively high approval rating in the last months of his term.

"First of all, enthusiastic supporters of Moon categorized as those in their 40s, those from Honam (meaning Gwangju and South and North Jeolla provinces) and white-collar workers will hardly break away from Moon but strongly unite behind him," Bae said. "Secondly, the exceptional situation of the COVID-19 pandemic added to support for Moon, with more people showing support for a leader in a time of crisis. Lastly, those of the liberal bloc who supported former President Roh Moo-hyun, whom Moon worked for as chief presidential secretary, are supporting him as they see Moon as the successor to Roh," he added.

Political commentator Park Sang-byong said he does not see calls for "regime change" gaining momentum, although more people said they want this in recent polls.

In another Gallup poll conducted on 1,008 adults, Oct. 25 and 26, about 53 percent said they believe an opposition candidate should be elected president to replace the current one, while 37 percent wanted the current ruling bloc to remain in power.

In a poll of 2,525 adults conducted from Nov. 1 to 5 by Realmeter, 46 percent of respondents said they support the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), while 25.9 percent backed the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). The PPP's support was the highest since the 2016 corruption scandal that ousted former President Park Geun-hye ― who was from the predecessor to the PPP ― took place.

"It is natural that people express discontent with the current ruling bloc when it comes to a five-year, single-term presidency system," Park said. "The ratio of those calling for a regime change should be about 80 percent to be regarded as high and actually leading to a regime change."

People wait in long lines to go through COVID-19 testing at a temporary testing center in Seoul's Songpa District, Thursday. Yonhap

Park said he believes Moon could be the first Korean president to finish his term without suffering from a lame duck period.

"Many supporters of the country's liberal bloc still believe that Moon's reform policy drives have had effects. Other than the real estate policy failures, there has not been a critical hit against Moon, and many believe the President has been doing well in other sectors such as his dealing with the pandemic," Park noted.

"Furthermore, for a lame duck period to come, the main opposition party should play the role of an alternative political force. But few people see the main opposition PPP as an alternative even though they are disappointed with the current ruling bloc. Public officials are showing no signs of turning their back on the ruling bloc, which is often observed in the first phase of a lame duck period."

Both Bae and Park said DPK presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung's main task will be embracing supporters of Moon while at the same time presenting further visions for reform that the people will find more appealing than those of the incumbent. For PPP candidate Yoon Seok-youl, they said his challenge will be expanding his support base to embrace centrists to beat Lee, as the person who can win over centrist voters will be the winner in the presidential race.