[INTERVIEW] Don't underestimate North Korea's drones: US analyst

Smoke rises after a Russian drone strike in Kyiv, in this Oct. 17 file photo. North Korea may not have advanced drone technology, but South Korea should not underestimate the danger, according to a U.S. defense expert. Reuters-Yonhap

Kim's interest in drones comes from South Korea's clear vulnerability, Bennett says

By Jung Min-ho

Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation

It was neither a state-of-the-art fighter jet nor an intercontinental ballistic missile that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad three years ago. It was a strike by an MQ-9 Reaper drone.

Although it would take a long time for North Korea to be able to copy anything close to such a high-level operation, South Korea should never underestimate what Pyongyang can ― and hopes to do ― with drone technology, according to Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, a U.S. policy think tank.

"While North Korea apparently lacks such [high-level] drone capabilities, it potentially could fly several dozen armed drones into the ROK Presidential Office or National Assembly or an oil refinery, causing serious damage," Bennett told The Korea Times, using the abbreviation of Republic of Korea, or South Korea, Thursday. "North Korea could also use drones to carry chemical and biological weapons. Only small amounts of biological weapons are required to cause a major disaster in the ROK. For example, the release of 1 to 2 kilograms of anthrax along the route the one drone took into northern Seoul could kill tens of thousands of people or far more and create a major medical crisis in the ROK."

His warning comes two days after five North Korean drones entered South Korea's airspace. One of them traveled as far as northern Seoul. In response, the military sent fighter jets and attack helicopters, but failed to shoot any of them down.

President Yoon Suk-yeol criticized the response and vowed to strengthen air defenses against drones. He also ordered the military to expedite the process of launching a unit specializing in drone operations. The military does not have a full-fledged drone unit, with one in the pilot phase, according to the Ministry of National Defense.

S. Korea to speed up anti-drone system development

2022-12-30 08:25 | Defense

"[North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un's interest in drones comes from the fact that ROK has been vulnerable to drone reconnaissance and drone attacks. If President Yoon is successful in countering these vulnerabilities, Kim will likely lose interest in drones. This is how military threats work, a country tries to target vulnerabilities, and especially those vulnerabilities associated with the military strengths of the opponent," Bennett said. "As the ROK is seeking to improve radar coverage against drones, Kim will most likely pursue capabilities to produce stealthy drones [as well as] both enhanced reconnaissance and enhanced attack capabilities for those drones."

A drone approaches for an attack in Kyiv, in this Oct. 17 file photo. AFP-Yonhap

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how dangerous unmanned aerial vehicles can be. Russia has used drones carrying weapons to destroy electrical power plants and water distribution systems, significantly disrupting the availability of electricity and fresh water for the Ukrainian military and citizens during the cold winter. North Korea will certainly learn from what is happening in that war and will try to imitate the tactics when it feels it must, he noted.

On Wednesday, the military announced a plan to invest 560 billion won ($441 million) into bolstering counter-drone capabilities over the next five years, including the deployment of a laser weapon system.

Bennett believes South Korea's focus on developing drone and anti-drone capabilities is the right direction as they will play increasingly critical roles in future warfare.

"To understand in part the value of drones, consider that lethal drones can probably be acquired at about 1 percent of the cost of a new F35 aircraft. Russia's Putin has apparently turned to using drones against Ukrainian facilities because the drones he has used are able to overwhelm the defenses available to Ukraine," he said. "Following Putin's example, many countries will likely pursue lethal drones."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks during a plenary meeting of the ruling Workers' Party at its headquarters in Pyongyang, North Korea, Dec. 27. He presented new plans to further bolster his military's power at that meeting. Yonhap

Given the uncertain threats posed by North Korea's drones in the future, the focus of South Korea's military should be on developing overall drone technology and producing a wide range of drones rather than on a specific kind of drone development, he noted.

"So I think President Yoon should set a vision for a diversity of drone technology and drone defenses that would give a technologically advanced country like the ROK a significant advantage over a technologically backward country like North Korea," Bennett said. "If the ROK is prepared to defend against drone threats, North Korea is like less likely to use them. That doesn't mean that the investments in those defenses are useless because they never get used to shoot down North Korean drones. They do get used in deterring North Korean attacks in the first place, which I think most people would agree is the preferred outcome."