Korean Peninsula may face fallout from balloon saga

This image provided by the U.S. Navy shows sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recovering a high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of Myrtle Beach, S.C., Sunday. AP-Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

The recent spy balloon controversy that has strained already fraught U.S.-China relations is expected to adversely affect the security situation on the Korean Peninsula in the absence of Beijing's role in resolving North Korea's nuclear issue, according to diplomatic observers.

In addition, Pyongyang could play off the rivalry by resorting to saber-rattling, including a much-anticipated launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or a nuclear test, they added.

Last week, a Chinese surveillance balloon was found to have entered U.S. airspace and floated over sensitive military sites in Montana. An F-22 Raptor fighter eventually shot it down.

Claiming that the balloon was a civilian weather research airship that went off course, the Chinese government accused the U.S. of overreacting, while the United States said the balloon represented a clear violation of its sovereignty.

The incident comes as the U.S. and South Korea have repeatedly urged China to play a constructive role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. Beijing is the reclusive state's sole economic pipeline and diplomatic guardian. The episode is raising speculation that China is not likely to take heed of the calls being made by South Korea and the U.S.

Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said an intensifying U.S.-Sino rivalry is not favorable to the security situation on the peninsula, adding, "We would see China's role regarding North Korea's nuclear issue diminishing following the balloon saga."

Cho said it is noteworthy that South Korea and the U.S. staged combined air drills involving strategic bombers and stealth fighters over the West Sea, which is right under China's nose.

"South Korea and the U.S. conducted combined air drills, involving B-1B strategic bombers, and F-22, F-35A and F-35B stealth jets, over the West Sea on Feb. 1. Two days later, another drill with the stealth fighters occurred, which is unprecedented," he said.

"Given that the U.S. first detected the balloon on Jan. 28, the drills served as a U.S. warning to China in response to the spy balloon."

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Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said China has always been part of the North Korean problem rather than part of the solution.

"Beijing would occasionally allow incremental stronger U.N. resolutions in response to egregious North Korean provocations only to subsequently turn a blind eye to violations of those resolutions by Chinese entities," he said.

In this photo provided by Chad Fish, the remnants of a large balloon drift above the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of South Carolina, with an F-22 fighter jet and its contrail seen below it, Saturday. AP-Yonhap

North Korea ended last year with a record 38 ballistic missile launches, in violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. However, the international community failed to hold the Kim Jong-un regime accountable for its destabilizing acts due to opposition from China and Russia.

"Due to the ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition, Beijing has been even less helpful, blocking at least 10 U.S. attempts at UNSC action in 2022 against North Korean violations," he added.

Plus, the North Korean leader noted late last year that the structure of international relations has been shifting to the new Cold War system, meaning his country will strengthen its ties with China against trilateral cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the U.S., according to Cho.

With the spy balloon row impacting U.S-China ties, North Korea is expected to take advantage of the increased tensions and stage military provocations.

"Pyongyang will know that Beijing will be even more likely to protect North Korean interests in the U.N. Security Council by vetoing any U.S. attempt to punish North Korea," Klingner said.

However, Robert Manning, a distinguished senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said there would not be any long-term impact on China's calculus vis-a-vis the peninsula, describing the current row as "fevered anti-China pathology in the U.S."

"Of course, North Korea would try to play off major powers against each other," Manning said.

"But China's policy on North Korea has been a consistent three NOs: no collapse, no wars, no nukes. While China seems more tolerant on the nukes part, Beijing's top priority is stability. There is a fair chance that one reason the long-awaited seventh North Korea nuclear test has not happened is due to Chinese pressure. For Xi Jinping, domestic problems and tensions with the U.S. are bad enough already."

In addition, Manning said regardless of the balloon incident, China is not likely to heed the U.S.' calls to urge North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions as Beijing may be happy with Washington being troubled by continuing problems in the region.

"I doubt the balloon incident is a factor, but the U.S. tended to press China to solve the North Korea problem and China has seen this as too big an ask," he said.

"Beijing may like some tension and a long-term problem in Northeast Asia for the U.S. If you think back to the six-party talks that China hosted and was generally cooperative, as U.S.-China relations have spiraled downward over the past five to six years, Beijing has been more supportive of Pyongyang and less cooperative with the U.S. and the ROK on the nuclear issue."

The ROK stands for the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.