North Korea, China challenges ahead for Moon despite successful summit in US

President Moon Jae-in smiles with U.S. President Joe Biden ahead of their summit at the White House in Washington, Friday. Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

President Moon Jae-in arrived home, Sunday, satisfied with the results of his "successful" first meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. But the South Korean leader is expected to face challenges that could arise from North Korea and China, according to diplomatic observers, Sunday.

Moon and Biden sat down with each other at the White House, Friday (local time), and forged tangible partnerships in several categories, including advanced technology, and re-strengthening the alliance between Seoul and Washington.

However, the two leaders fell short of coming up with detailed measures in terms of bringing North Korea back to the dialogue table, while South Korea indicated that it was siding with the U.S. over China amid the intensifying rivalry between the two superpowers.

"It is positive that the Biden administration's North Korea policy will be built on the Singapore Joint Statement," said Cheong Seong-chang, director of Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute.

The statement was signed by Biden's predecessor Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un following their first summit in June 2018. The declaration stated that the two sides would make joint efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, while the North would commit to a complete denuclearization.

"But the two leaders failed to produce concrete plans to revive stalled nuclear talks with North Korea ― particularly, the role of China that is regarded as being essential in resolving the issue. In that sense, the summit is not expected to pave the way for Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table," Cheong added.

Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest, was even more critical of the summit's results, saying that Biden's North Korea policy is vague.

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"While Team Biden talks about being practical, clear-eyed, pragmatic and wanting to take a slower approach in contrast to the prior administration's dream of some sort of grand bargain with Pyongyang, there is no substance behind such words. Even weeks after the White House rolled out its North Korea policy review, we still have no idea what the specific policy ideas or actions Washington is willing to take to get North Korea to give up a single nuclear weapon actually are," he said.

"Joe Biden's policy is more one of strategic vagueness. That can only worry the Moon government, which has expended tremendous time, effort, and political capital to try and reach a breakthrough with North Korea."

Kazianis predicted that the Kim regime may dust off the old playbook of provocations to capture global headlines and Biden's attention.

"Pyongyang could decide to stay under the radar and move closer to China as a way to get vital COVID-19 vaccines, rebuild its economy and quietly build up its nuclear deterrent. Or, it could return to the old Kim playbook, knowing that Biden is in no rush to deal, and give us a summer like 2017, showing off its nuclear prowess to test the new administration's resolve and try to get Washington to show its cards while getting back in the media spotlight," he added.

Until the summit, the Moon administration had steered clear of the hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China due to Beijing being Seoul's largest-trading partner, but showed signs of leaning toward Washington following the summit ― although there was no direct reference to China.

In the post-summit joint statement, the two heads of state pledged to maintain peace and stability, lawful and unimpeded commerce, and respect for international law, including freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea, while emphasizing the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, something that the U.S. is taking issue with China over.

In addition, Biden said during the press conference that he and Moon addressed the issues of stronger cooperation with regional partners including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) members and trilateral cooperation with Japan. The Quad is regarded as a means to contain China.

The deepening bilateral cooperation in emerging technologies, including 5G and 6G technology and semiconductors and supply chain resilience, could be seen a threat to China as the U.S. wants to build supply chains that bypass Beijing.

"In their joint statement, Biden and Moon emphasized the importance of working with Japan on 'upholding common values, and bolstering the rules-based order.' It's a statement that 'could easily be interpreted as signaling trilateral alignment against China's values and behavior,'" said Markus Garlauskas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, also said, "Even though the summit statement did not refer to China by name, it mentioned international human rights, a rules-based order in Asia, stability in the Taiwan Strait, and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea."

He added, "Washington and Seoul also pledged significant resources toward technology supply chain resilience, which is largely a hedge against China."

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the summit was a win-win for South Korea and the U.S., but it is "lowering the possibility of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Seoul before Moon's term ends (in May 2022)."