China's role vital in preventing provocation, resuming diplomacy with North Korea

President Moon Jae-in looks at a gift from Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Beijing in December 2017. Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae

Xi's visit to Korea unlikely during Moon's presidency

By Do Je-hae

President Moon Jae-in has paid a lot of attention to improving relations with China through an active summit diplomacy with Chinese President Xi Jinping, following the bilateral dispute over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system ― the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system ― on Korean soil during his predecessor Park Geun-hye's term.

Moon held a summit with Xi in Beijing on Dec. 14, 2017. The Korean leader visited the Chinese capital again almost two years later on Dec. 23, 2019 for another summit with Xi en route to Chengdu for the Korea-China-Japan summit. In addition to these instances, Moon has met with Xi during multilateral diplomatic occasions throughout his presidency, most recently during a video conference of the leaders of ASEAN, Korea, China and Japan on Nov. 14, 2020.

There are two primary reasons for Seoul's urgent attempts to improve ties with Beijing and put the THAAD dispute behind them. First, Korea is looking for headway in economic issues, and secondly, there is the North Korea issue, for which Moon is expected to continue to seek cooperation from key players, including China. "Our government, along with the international community, including China, will not stop the efforts to end the war on the Korean Peninsula and push for complete denuclearization and permanent peace," Moon said during a meeting with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi at Cheong Wa Dae on Nov. 26, 2020.

Ahead of the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration in the U.S., some experts are highlighting China's role on the Korean Peninsula in setting the right mood for resuming diplomacy with North Korea.

"China's role in preventing North Korean provocations is vital," Kim Dong-gil, professor of Department of History at Peking University, said in a recent interview with The Korea Times. "China needs to reassure North Korea and prevent provocations through continuous dialogue or partial economic aid within the scope of U.N. sanctions."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, third from left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, second from right, engage in a conversation ahead of a luncheon in Beijing on March 27, 2018. The first summit between South Korean President Moon and Kim took place a few weeks later on April 27 at the border village of Panmunjom. Korea Times file

Beijing's top diplomatic officials ― Yang Jiechi, a senior advisor to Xi, and Wang ― made successive visits to Korea in August and November 2020, respectively. But there has not been much progress with topics that are important to Korea, such as Xi's reciprocal visit to Korea.

Xi has not visited Korea since July 2014 and the Moon administration sought to realize Xi's visit to Korea last year, but it has been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Professor Kim said that a reciprocal visit by Xi during Moon's presidency is unlikely to happen, given the political situation both in the U.S. and South Korea.

"Xi's visit will only be possible after the second half of this year when the security team and security policy of the Biden administration are established," Kim added. "But from the second half of the year, South Korea will quickly become engulfed in the presidential election (slated for March 2022)."

The scholar also underlined the need for Seoul's balanced response to the U.S.-China conflict, which has profound impact on South Korea's diplomacy and national security.

The following are edited answers from a written interview with the historian who also serves as the director of Center for Korean Peninsular Studies at China's top university.

Kim Dong-gil, professor of Department of History, Peking University / Courtesy of Kim Dong-gil

Q&A

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Q How do you see China's role regarding Korean Peninsula issues such as North Korea's denuclearization in the Biden era?

A The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is China's strategic goal for the Korean Peninsula. The Biden administration will not repeat the previous Barack Obama administration's "strategic patience" policy, but it will take up to six months before the North Korean nuclear policy is established.

The problem is that if North Korea makes provocations during that period, including nuclear tests and long-range missile launches, it could have a hugely negative impact on U.S. policy toward North Korea. China's role in preventing North Korean provocations is vital. China needs to reassure North Korea and prevent provocations through continuous dialogue or partial economic aid within the scope of U.N. sanctions.

Q How should South Korea strategize to respond to the U.S.-China competition, which is expected to continue to present complex challenges for the nation's diplomacy and trade?

A China understands the South Korea-U.S. alliance to deal with North Korean threats. However, if the South Korea-U.S. alliance targets China or becomes a system of a South Korea-U.S.-Japan alliance, China will firmly oppose it and naturally retaliate against South Korea.

South Korea should pay close attention to preventing the South Korea-U.S. alliance from deviating from its role as a linchpin of peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and being mobilized by the U.S. to counter China. This is probably the geopolitical fate of the Korean Peninsula.

Q How do you see prospects for South Korea-China relations in 2021, including the possibility of Xi's visit to Korea?

A It's been a long time since the relations between South Korea and China, including in the area of trade, have been normal.

The fact that Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi as well as Yang Jiechi, a member of China's Politburo, made successive visits to Korea despite the COVID-19 pandemic for discussions on bilateral issues, including Xi's visit to Seoul, means that bilateral relations have normalized. However, the issue of Beijing's regulations on the entertainment industry is applied to all countries, not just South Korea. Due to the COVID-19, the Chinese leader's overseas visits have been virtually suspended, so this is not limited to South Korea.

For Xi's visit, the COVID-19 situation should be controlled first. Secondly, it will only be possible after the second half of this year when the security team and security policy of the U.S. Biden administration are established. But from the second half of the year, South Korea will quickly become engulfed in the presidential election, and China is unlikely to think that Xi's visit to South Korea under these circumstances will be beneficial for China.

President Moon Jae-in, fifth from right, and Chinese Ambassador to Korea Qiu Guohong, fourth from right, take part in the opening ceremony for the "Korea-China economic and trade partnership" event in Beijing on Dec. 15, 2017. Beijing is expected to speed up economic and trade cooperation with Seoul as it tries to tackle U.S. and EU sanctions in the high-tech sector. Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae

Q Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang underlined trade and high-tech cooperation with South Korea during his visit to Seoul in November 2020. What are some of the priorities of Beijing's South Korea policy this year, ahead of the 30th anniversary of establishment of bilateral relations in 2022?

A Since taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured allies to take action with the U.S. to keep China in check, but U.S. allies, including Japan, South Korea and ASEAN, have joined the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Recently, U.S. allies have been separately responding to security and economy. It is expected that South Korea will also take this direction in the overall scheme of things.

China is virtually isolated in its high-tech industrial sector because of the U.S. and European technology powers' sanctions. To overcome this situation, it is very natural for China to ask South Korea to strengthen cooperation in the high-tech industry. At the same time, China will seek an 'economic coupling' with Korea by signing (the second stage of) a Free Trade Agreement as soon as possible, and will use it as leverage to prevent the South Korea-U.S. alliance from developing into a military alliance aimed at China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, visits an exhibition in Beijing to mark the 70th anniversary of the Korean War on Oct. 20, 2020. Korea Times file

Q President Moon has proposed a healthcare and disease control cooperative framework involving countries in Northeast Asia, including North Korea and China, and also wants a declaration to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War which ended in an armistice. Will China show interest in any of these proposals by the South Korean leader?

A For Beijing, there is no reason not to agree to the cooperation proposals from Seoul on the issues. Cooperation between South Korea and China through these agendas has the effect of preventing the South Korea-U.S. alliance from targeting China. Therefore, China will continue to strengthen cooperation in these areas.

The Chinese government has previously called for a quick declaration for ending the war, as it would greatly help ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and undermine the legitimacy of the U.S. military presence.

However, the Chinese signatory of the Korean Armistice Agreement, Peng Dehuai, signed it as commander-in-chief of the Chinese People's Volunteer Army (PVA), but now there is no such army. China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has never declared it succeeded the PVA. Currently, only two of the three signatories of the armistice ― the United Nations Command and North Korea's Korean People's Army ― continue to exist. Therefore, it should be reconsidered whether China is legally qualified to participate in the declaration to end the Korean War.