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| An undated file photo released by the North Korean Central News Agency shows an underwater test-fire of strategic submarine ballistic missile conducted at an undisclosed location in North Korea. / EPA-Yonhap |
By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea is expected to test-fire a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) soon to show off its sea-based nuclear attack capabilities after its purported successful test of a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
The move could come as the North is highly likely to make the most of the current tension-ridden situation on the peninsula to gain recognition as a nuclear state.
CNN quoted an unidentified U.S. defense official Monday as saying the U.S. military has detected "highly unusual and unprecedented levels" of North Korean submarine activity and evidence of an "ejection test" in the days following the North's second Hwasong-14 ICBM test Friday night.
The Hwasong-14 reached a maximum altitude of 3,724 kilometers and flew about 998 kilometers in 47 minutes, the North's state media said, claiming that such a missile was capable of striking targets on the U.S. mainland.
The ejection test is designed to examine "cold launch" technology necessary to propel a missile out of the water before its engines ignite to put the missile on a trajectory to a designated target. Such technology is considered critical to developing submarine launch capabilities.
The U.S. official told CNN that the latest ejection test took place on land at a naval shipyard in Sinpo, South Hamkyong Province, noting that it was the third such test in July and the fourth this year.
CNN reported earlier in July that the North had been outfitting its Gorae-class (Sinpo-class) experimental ballistic missile submarine with a possible missile launch demonstration tube.
On July 24, Japan's NHK reported that a diesel-powered Romeo-class submarine from the North had conducted activities in the East Sea for about a week, a rare move considering such a sub usually sails only for about four days.
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North Korea-monitoring website 38 North said July 20 that commercial satellite imagery taken of the Sinpo Naval Shipyard on June 30 showed the North had repositioned Gorae-class submarines capable of firing SLBMs and submersible barges. The website said this may be a sign of an additional SLBM test in the days to come.
In August last year, the North conducted what was believed to be its first successful test of an SLBM, called the KN-11 by Washington and Pukguksong-1 by Pyongyang.
At the time, the missile flew about 500 kilometers before landing in waters under Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (JADIZ) in the East Sea — a significant improvement compared with past launches.
If an SLBM flies at least 300 kilometers during its test, the launch is considered successful, according to analysts.
Military officials here are especially paying attention to the possible SLBM launch as Seoul and Washington are scheduled to kick off their annual Ulchi-Freedom Guardian joint exercise later this month.
The North has so far carried out missile provocations in protest against the allies' joint exercises, calling them a rehearsal for war against the regime in Pyongyang.
"We maintain a full readiness posture in preparation for any type of provocations," a military official said on condition of anonymity.
Apparently mindful of concerns over the North's SLBM capabilities, Defense Minister Song Young-moo told a National Assembly session Monday that the government is ready to review a plan to build the nation's own nuclear-powered submarines.
During the presidential election campaign, President Moon Jae-in vowed to push to revise the nuclear cooperation deal between South Korea and the U.S. so the nation can purchase the U.S. ingredients that can be used to make nuclear fuel.
Supporters say the only way to counter the North's SLBM threat would be for Seoul to have its own nuclear subs to strike the North's submarines before they launch a missile.
They say nuclear submarines do not have to surface frequently, making it difficult for the enemy to detect them. Moreover, they can operate at high speeds for long periods.
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