Between friend and ally

By Sunny Lee

BEIJING — Sometimes China and North Korea appear too close to each other; and that could mean trouble for China.

When North Korea embarks on provocative behavior, the international community looks to Beijing to restrain Pyongyang.

The picture, however, may not be exclusive to such ties.

When Seoul and Washington look too close to each other in their alliance, which they say is because of North Korea, China tends to think of other possibilities.

“The cooperation of Washington and Seoul is targeting North Korea. That’s one goal of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Another goal is, I don’t want to use the word ‘contain China,’ but that is the big picture of how the United States is seen trying to use South Korea in East Asia,” said Sun Zhe, a professor of international studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

“As South Korea has continued conducting various joint military exercises with the United States, Chinese began to wonder whether South Korea wanted to be one of the two pillars of the U.S. security plan in East Asia, together with Japan.”

South Korea has an interesting relationship with the United States and China. With the United States it has an alliance relationship; with China it has a strategic partnership. Washington is Seoul’s strongest military partner, while Beijing is Seoul’s strongest economic partner.

But China sees South Korea as being “a bit too close” to America. And that perception has deepened since Lee Myung-bak took office.

“We examined the policy track record of the Lee Myung-bak administration for the last three or four years. And it confirmed our perception that the Lee administration has been maintaining a very close relationship with the United States,” said Sun.

It is not clear how that Chinese perception may have played into Beijing’s posture in the wake of the Cheonan sinking last year. At that time, it took an “even-handed” approach, counseling calm for both Koreas.

But this “even-handedness” made China look like it was tilting toward North Korea.

South Koreans protested to China, saying would it be calm if attacked?

But for Sun, judging the Cheonan incident required more than a call for justice. “To be very honest, the final report of the Cheonan investigation was not very convincing to the Chinese. If you really want to a fair investigation, you probably need to invite North Koreans as well. You might also want to have an American-style open hearing to ensure you have a transparent process. That was one of the reasons China didn’t buy the South Korean argument that the attack was carried out by North Korea,” according to Sun.

South Korea complains about the North’s constant belligerence. They may be shocked to hear that that’s not necessarily how Chinese see the picture all the time.

“With regard to the Yeonpyeong shelling, North Korea was very provocative. But in the end, Pyongyang didn’t follow through its pledge of military action against the South. But after North Korea retracted from its provocative behavior, South Korea and the United States continued their military exercises.

“Actually, South Korea became more provocative than the North. And I think that may have to do with the South’s domestic politics. I personally argued that we Chinese should respect South Korea’s sentiment against the North and also understand the South’s domestic politics better,” said Sun.

Chinese experts on Korean affairs also say that Lee, who has taken a tough posture on Pyongyang, could have showed a bit more flexibility.

“I think from the very beginning, hardliners in Seoul didn’t want to engage Pyongyang,” said Wang Dong, who teaches at the school of international studies at Peking University.

The Lee administration has been pursuing what now has become its signature hard-line policy on North Korea. Yet interestingly, there has been also a brooding anxiety in some pockets of South Korea that the United States will leave Seoul behind and eventually engage the North as part of a “grand plan” it “clinched” with China to manage the volatile Korean Peninsula.

Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.S. President Barak Obama agreed, the view surmises,at their January summit in Washington to manage the Korean Peninsula through the six-party talks and by engaging the North.

Seoul wants to stick to its hard-line policy as long as Pyongyang doesn’t make any concessions. Therefore, it fears diplomatic isolation when both Washington and Beijing, the two world’s superpowers, collude to play their own diplomatic chess game by engaging Pyongyang.

Wang said Seoul doesn’t have to be bound by seizure mentality.

“I don’t see why South Korea should worry about China and the United States moving to engage North Korea. That’s actually a good thing for the South as well, because by doing so we can manage the North and even influence its behavior.

“It is reasonable for China and the United States to engage North Korea. And actually, Seoul can also join in. We have to acknowledge there is a serious problem with the Lee Myung-bak administration’s policy on North Korea,” said Wang.

He then brought up the Chinese saying, “yu shi ju jin,” meaning “to move forward along with time.”

“The Lee administration shouldn’t be a prisoner to their own orthodox beliefs about North Korea. They should be more flexible in how to coordinate with China and the United States. So, I think they should, if I may say, get out of their closed mentality and shift to a more flexible mindset and take a more open approach with regard to North Korea.”

Sun is pessimistic whether that will happen. “We don’t think Lee will change his fundamental foreign policy platforms. For China, we are looking forward to working with the next South Korean president,” he said. “It’s a rational choice.”