Chinese scholars evaluate Kim Jong-il’s trip

The visit itself was not very substantive: security expert

By Sunny Lee
Korea Times correspondent

BEIJING ― The widely watched saga of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's veiled visit to China fell short of delivering any breakthrough on the nuclear disarmament front and the summit between Chinese President Hu Jintao and the North's Kim Jong-il was nothing like a "honeymoon" as some South Korean media outlets described it, according to Chinese experts on Korea affairs.

As the countries participating in the six-nation nuclear disarmament talks have been briefed by Beijing on the outcome of the recent visit by Kim to China, some new insight into what actually happened during the visit, shrouded in secrecy, has also surfaced.

Kept in the dark about details of Kim's activities, media outlets mostly reported about what they were only able to see: China's "lavish welcome" of Kim and the unusually long four-and-a-half-hour banquet Hu arranged for him at the Great Hall of the People, and how the Chinese government paid for Kim's extravagant stay in China, as well as his 40 armored limousine convoy, which blocked traffic as he was driven through Beijing's most touristy Changan Avenue.

But "the visit itself was not very substantive," said Zhu Feng, a security expert at Peking University.

"Beijing asked Pyongyang to show sincerity of its nuclear commitment by returning to the six-party talks. But Kim just said only under certain conditions would there be a return to the talks. Overall, there was a lack of recognition of the six-party talks," he said.

Liu Ming, the director of International Relations Theory Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, agreed. "There was no breakthrough, even though they had some discussions on the nuclear issue," he said.

According to Liu, the difference between China and North Korea remains "large" in key issues, including the nuclear factor.

During his meeting with the Chinese President, Kim said his country was still committed to nuclear disarmament and expressed a willingness to "provide favorable conditions" for restarting the six-party talks, without specifying concrete measures.

"That's still a positive change," said Su Hao, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing.

Analysts in South Korea, the United States, Japan, Russia, as well as China, are increasingly skeptical about the North's purported sincerity in its commitment to denuclearization. Some are even worried about nuclear proliferation.

During a visit to Japan, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on Wednesday claimed that North Korean weapons seized in Bangkok in December were bound for Middle Eastern militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, declaring North Korea, Syria and Iran the "new axis of evil."

"China encourages North Korea to keep its commitment to denuclearization and non-proliferation," said Su. Yet he also acknowledged that there are some "different understandings" between the two countries on the matter.

Kim's visit came at a sensitive time when investigation is still underway into the sinking of a South Korean navy warship that killed 46 sailors. North Korea remains a prime suspect, though it denies involvement. South Korea also voiced displeasure at Beijing over the timing of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's visit ― just three days after President Lee Myung-bak and President Hu Jintao met in Shanghai.

South Korea protested that China kept it in the dark about Kim's visit. Media outlets also erupted in anger. SBS, a TV broadcaster, for example, said China was engaging in a "double play" between the two Koreas.

"I would say there was some misunderstanding," Su said. "By having this kind of visit [by Kim], China can send a message to North Korea" not to engage in any provocative behavior.

Zhao Huji, a political scientist at the Central Party School in Beijing, an elite institution that educates Communist Party cadre, said: "I think the South Korean media jumped to the conclusion without comprehending how the talks [between Hu Jintao and Kim Jong-il] went.

"My understanding of the atmosphere of the summit was that it was a very serious and solemn meeting," he said. "The meeting was not just full of sweet talk. There was also a moment when China clearly stated its position."

During their meeting, Hu proposed to Kim: "The two sides should exchange views in a timely manner and regularly on major 'domestic' and diplomatic issues, international and regional situations, as well as on governance experience" urging that the two sides strengthen coordination in international and regional affairs to better serve peace and stability.

Chinese analysts say these proposals reflect China's displeasure with North Korea's nuclear tests, which were taken without coordination with China.

The statement is unusual in that Beijing has a foreign policy principle of not interfering with other countries' domestic affairs. "So, this is a very serious wording," said Zhao.

Yet South Korean media outlets saw it as a clear sign of China's deepening clout over North Korea. Chinese scholars didn't necessarily see it that way. Rather, they saw it as "even."

"There was no declaration [at the summit] by North Korea to return to the six-party talks. And there was no specific declaration by China either to support an industrial project in North Korea," said Zhu at Peking University.

Unlike the prevalent view that the visit by Kim was mainly an occasion for North Korea to seek economic aid in return, for rejoining the six-party nuclear talks, Su believes, it was more about "confirming mutual intentions to maintain a stable relationship."

"Before the visit, there was some uncertainty about their relationship. But with the realization of the high-level visit, both countries confirmed their intentions to maintain a stable relationship," he said.

Meanwhile, there was intense speculation whether Kim took his heir on his secret China visit. Kim is said to be grooming a son, Kim Jong-un, to succeed him. North Korea was also believed to be seeking Chinese support of Kim's choice of Jong-un.

China's socialist ideology frowns upon a family handover of power.

Analysts differed on the heir issue. Some view Kim Jong-il is frail now and his brother-in-law, Chang Song-taek, is the one who actually runs North Korea, while Jong-un is too young, still in his 20s.

Liu said: "I don't think North Korea has a clear successor at this time."

Su added that China's primary interest with North Korea is its stability and China will support whoever will be the next leader, "as long as he has the capacity to maintain the internal stability of North Korea."