By Yi Whan-woo
It was a double whammy for South Korea as unpredictable populist Donald Trump's stunning victory in the U.S. election and President Park Geun-hye's slip into a deeper leadership crisis amid the Choi Soon-sil scandal amplify uncertainties on the Korean Peninsula.
With hard-line opposition lawmakers calling for her resignation or impeachment, concerns are growing that political administration may grind to a halt and the country's efforts to build ties with the incoming U.S. government will lose momentum.
The combination of chaotic domestic politics and the Trump factor will provide enormous challenges to the country down the road, analysts say. Trump, who will take office on Jan. 20 as the 45th U.S. president, vowed to upend globalization and other conventional foreign policies embraced by all of his predecessors since World War II.
For Park, instead of resignation or impeachment, some opposition and ruling Saenuri Party lawmakers are offering a more viable choice — empower a prime minister recommended by the National Assembly to run the country while nominally remaining in office until the scheduled end of her presidency.
Such an option, however, still leaves the question of whether Trump, who has displayed a lack of knowledge and courtesy toward other countries, will accept Park or the opposition-chosen prime minister as his real counterpart. Park's term will end in February 2018.
Moreover, the National Assembly has not determined who to recommend as its new prime minister after opposing Park's nomination of Kookmin University Professor Kim Byeong-joon for the post to replace Hwang Kyo-ahn, Nov. 3.
According to some diplomatic sources, a South Korean leader usually holds a summit with the new U.S. president around April or May of the same year the latter enters the White House.
"We should immediately contact relevant officials from the Trump side and begin scheduling face-to-face talks between the two heads of state," a source said. "The thing is, we don't even know whether Park will pull out of state affairs fully or partially."
"It's doubtful we will be able to maximize the national interest by holding a Seoul-Washington meeting in a timely manner under a Trump presidency," said Rep. Yun Ho-jung of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK).
International affairs
The lack of personal networks with a Trump administration is sending extra shockwaves to the Korean government after the macho U.S. president-elect hinted at a drastic overhaul of the decades-long military alliance.
He has threatened to pull U.S. forces out of South Korea if Seoul does not shoulder more of the cost to keep the 28,500 American troops stationed here to counter North Korea's military threats. He also vowed to scrap a "job-killing" free trade agreement with Seoul, fueling concerns that the government needs to rapidly open a dialogue with the Trump side to settle related issues.
"And we still have virtually zero networks with his side," a senior Saenuri Party lawmaker said on condition of anonymity.
He downplayed a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official's claim that the government contacted relevant members of Trump's election camp over 100 times this year through a dialogue channel established by the South Korean Embassy in Washington, D.C.
"Trump came from nowhere after being a political outsider and we don't have the slightest idea about possible candidates who will help him in security and foreign affairs."
Regarding North Korea's nuclear threat, some analysts speculate it will not be on Trump's priority list.
They cited that Trump has been stressing an isolationist foreign policy, meaning South Korea may need to make extra efforts to convince the U.S. to press the Kim Jong-un regime harder. He also has been inconsistent in his views toward Kim, calling him a "maniac" on the one hand and proposing to invite the young dictator to the U.S. on the other.
"Trump may deal with North Korea seriously only if Pyongyang's nuclear program becomes further advanced and poses a greater threat to the U.S.," said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University. "What I'm worried about is that he may go for a unilateral attack against the North."