Can Lee mend fences with China?

The following is the second in a two-part New Year series gauging ties between South Korea and China that will celebrate the 20th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two. — ED.

By Sunny Lee

BEIJING — After being sworn in four years ago, President Lee Myung-bak’s foreign policy has largely had two pillars. One was hard-line policy toward North Korea; the other was a pro-U.S. one. Lee has succeeded in both.

The irony was that the more Lee succeeded with the two polices, the worse Lee’s relationship became with China. It was like a student who got an A in one subject, while flunking another, despite the teacher warning that both subjects were important.

The United States is South Korea’s strongest ally, while China is its largest economic partner. Strategists say Seoul should maintain a strong alliance with Washington, while being on friendly terms with Beijing. Not alienating China is also important because it is an important stakeholder in North Korea.

Obviously, Lee’s homework is to study the subject he is weak in China. He got himself some tutoring, but perhaps, he chose the wrong teacher. Lee once explained how he thought he could juggle Seoul’s relationship with the two world powers. “The stronger South Korea-U.S. ties are, the better South Korea-China relations will become.” The logic behind it went that a robust Seoul-Washington relationship would give the former more leverage in dealing with Beijing.

Critics point out that the President’s basic mentality with China is to “check” the giant neighbor by tilting ever closely toward major military ally, the U.S., rather than exploring creative ways to “work with” the Beijing leadership.

As Lee’s infatuation with the U.S. deepened, it made China feel like a jilted lover. “China feels that South Korea is only interested in its ties with the United States and doesn’t attach enough importance to China,” said Zhao Huji of the Central Party School of the Communist Party.

All this comes against the backdrop that the image of South Korea is also deteriorating in China. In a poll by Global Times in 2010, an international arm of the official People’s Daily, an absolute majority of Chinese netizens (94.5 percent) called for China to “take South Korea down by force” as they believe it was becoming “increasingly arrogant” by teaming up with the United States to corner China. These people also said China should “teach Korea a clear lesson.”

That was Beijing’s expression of exasperation over the multiple joint military drills Seoul was conducting with the U.S. with the participation of the aircraft carrier Gorge Washington last year.

One year later, that perception apparently hasn’t changed much. On Dec. 30, a Global Times reporter asked a question to Lee Kyu-hyung, Seoul’s ambassador to China. “Both Korean and Chinese media outlets conducted polls on how much they like the other country. The results are not encouraging,” she said in a video clip, posted on the newspaper’s website.

Seoul’s top envoy in China attributed the situation to “mutual failure to correctly recognize the other.”

Shi Yinhong, an expert on Korea affairs at Renmin University in Beijing, said it will take time for the two to resolve their differences because “already for years, we have been feeling a high tension between the two nations. Communication at the highest level has been far from sufficient, especially after Lee Myung-bak took office,” said Shi.

It’s high time for Lee to take care of his failing grade with his China policy.

Actually, Lee has never had a phone conversation with Hu Jintao since he was sworn in four years ago, Oh Jong-sik, spokesman of the main opposition Democratic Unity Party, told reporters.

Lee can do so, for example, by finding a way to alleviate Beijing’s concern for the Seoul-Washington military alliance. Zhao observed: “South Korea is seen as going too far with its alliance with the United States, with frequent military drills.” China also harbors mistrust on the Lee administration, seeing it as colluding with Washington to contain Beijing.

In fact, China criticized the U.S.-South Korea military alliance as a “Cold War product,” when Lee was about to arrive there in 2008.

As the Chinese saying “gu zhang nan ming” indicates, one palm cannot clap. There are two parties in a relationship. A good relationship requires efforts from both sides. Experts point out Beijing’s historically overbearing mindset on its former vassal state often fails to appreciate how modern diplomatic decorum should be conducted. For example, on the Yeonpyeong incident last year, Koreans felt insulted when China sent an envoy to Seoul to “give a one-hour lecture” to President Lee on the history of inter-Korean conflict without bringing up, not even once, the word “Yeonpyeong.”

Seoul also harbors a suspicion about what Beijing’s eventual strategic goal is with Pyongyang. It’s natural that China’s deepening influence on North Korea will be watched warily by the South.

As Lee will make a visit to China, analysts say, instead of pursuing diplomatic good looks, the two leaders should pursue real diplomacy to work on their differences. Hwang Jae-ho at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies said Lee needs to do some homework. “The Lee administration has shown a lack of vision, will, and ability to utilize the strategic partnership so far,” he said.

Zhang Liangui, a professor of international strategic research at the Central Party School, advises that the two countries should start with moderate goals in the Lee-Hu summit. And that is to repair the bilateral relationship. “Since the Cheonan incident last year, bilateral ties hit their lowest point. The priority is to put them back on the track.”