’Chances of North Korea’s instability are quite high’

BEIJING — A well-known Chinese scholar believes that the chances of instability in North Korea in the post-Kim Jong-il are high and has urged relevant countries to engage in immediate consultations to be prepared for any possible contingencies, including the security of its nuclear stockpile.

Jia Qingguo

By Sunny Lee

BEIJING — A well-known Chinese scholar believes that the chances of instability in North Korea in the post-Kim Jong-il are high and has urged relevant countries to engage in immediate consultations to be prepared for any possible contingencies, including the security of its nuclear stockpile.

“I believe the chances of instability in North Korea are quite high,” said Jia Qingguo, a security expert, who teaches at Peking University School of International Studies.

“I believe every concerned country has its own contingency plan on North Korea. Yet what is absolutely necessary is that these countries should also communicate with one another so as to prevent any unforeseen chaotic situation or miscommunication or even conflict surrounding North Korea’s nuclear programs,” Jia told The Korea Times.

The Chinese expert’s remark is a departure from the common perception that it is China which has been shy about discussing the sensitive topic with other countries, such as the United States and South Korea, because it fears that doing so will make North Korea angry.

Even though the topic may not be the stated agenda of a meeting, Jia hints, it might be actually brought up “on the sidelines.”

“I am not sure whether the countries concerned with Pyongyang’s nuclear program, including China, the U.S. and South Korea, are not talking to one other, in private, about contingency plans.”

Jia believes the coming six-month timeframe is especially critical for the North’s stability. During the first couple of weeks of mourning and up to the Dec. 28 funeral, he said, things are likely to be stable. “But after the memorial service, how things will unfold from there, it’s difficult to tell.

“The following six months will be the most uncertain period for North Korea. There is a high possibility that things will go wrong.”

North Korea has been in the process of a power transfer from Kim Jong-il to his third son, Jong-un. The process was abruptly halted with the sudden death of Kim Jong-il over the weekend.

China apparently endorsed Jong-un becoming the next leader of North Korea when its Communist Party leadership issued an official statement of condolence, as shown on state television Monday night.

One sentence in it reads that China believes North Korean people will unite together “under Kim Jong-un’s leadership.”

Jia believes Jong-un faces formidable challenges. These include his lack of experience in running a nation, an incomplete power consolidation and lukewarm support from powerful figures.

The young leader has yet to garner wide respect from the public either. And things are not promising as the nation suffers from economic hardship.

The very fact that Jong-un inherits power from Kim Jong-il, who commanded less authority than his father Kim Il-sung, doesn’t help either, according to Jia.

Furthermore, the country faces a daunting task of becoming a “strong and prosperous” country on the occasion of the centenary of the birth of Kim Il-sung next year. Failure to live up to the slogan will make the proud North Korea lose face.

“If you take all these factors into consideration, I believe there is a serious possibility of instability,” said Jia.

Against this backdrop, he argues that China, the U.S., South Korea and other relevant countries should “stay in touch” so as to help maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Despite North Korea’s official explanation of the cause of Kim Jong-il’s death as “overwork,” there has been speculation over the secrecy of the two-day time gap between Kim’s passing and the date it was announced.

Jia cautions against over-interpretation. “This is typical of a political system under a leader who wields strong personal power. When the leader is still alive, people are uncomfortable talking about what to do if the leader dies. But when it actually happens, people need time to discuss and prepare the things they need to carry out. I think that explains the two-day time lag,” said Jia.

While the North’s state television showed footage of people wailing over the death of Kim, many in South Korea are celebrating the demise of the dictator. South Koreans have enough reason to be angry with Kim. He masterminded a 1983 bombing in Myanmar which killed 16 of Seoul’s top officials and the 1987 bombing of a Korean civilian airplane that killed 115 passengers on board.

On the death of Kim Il-sung in 1994, then President Kim Young-sam made inflammatory and derogatory remarks that enraged North Koreans.

Given the volatile situation in the North, Jia hopes South Koreans can keep their cool. “South Korea should be cautious and be patient. It’s not an appropriate time to say anything provocative. This is a time when North Koreans are very emotional and can easily get offended.”

China’s national interest predisposes itself to want a stable North Korea. Beijing hopes that the power transition can unfold in a smooth and orderly fashion. It also hopes that Pyongyang can carry out economic reforms, which will help stabilize the political challenges it faces.

“But there is also great concern about possible political turmoil in North Korea and what will happen to nuclear weapons. So, it’s crucial for all countries concerned to talk to one another. In this way, different countries don’t have to rush to reach a quick fix if a problem really occurs. We should be prepared for this contingency,” said Jia.