Predicting North Korea’s next move

BEIJING — In diplomatic equations, North Korea is a tricky “variable” to predict. It is an oddball that can jump in any three-dimensional direction. Guessing North Korea’s moves and acting on a preset scenario could be risky.

Evans Revere
Northeast Asia specialist

By Sunny Lee

BEIJING — In diplomatic equations, North Korea is a tricky “variable” to predict. It is an oddball that can jump in any three-dimensional direction. Guessing North Korea’s moves and acting on a preset scenario could be risky.

South Korea therefore should focus on the “invariable,” that is, South Korea itself and what options it has in dealing with the unpredictable North, according to Evans Revere, a former Northeast Asia specialist with the U.S. State Department, who now teaches at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.

Just as tension on the peninsula was beginning to ease after North Korea didn’t follow through its promise of harsh retaliation against the Seoul’s live-fire drills on Monday, many pundits are back on the almost divinatory business of predicting what is going to be Pyongyang’s next move.

Revere, who also serves as a senior strategist to a Washington-based international strategy consulting firm, the Albright Stonebridge Group, begs to differ. His message is along the line of “Forget about North Korea. Instead focus on you and the options you’ve got.”

According to this approach, South Korea’s best strategy is to send a strong and credible signal of deterrence in close cooperation with the United States to North Korea “so that North Korea does not miscalculate in terms of the U.S.-South Korea alliance” while also keeping the door for diplomacy open.

This strategy, in a sense, serves as a “preemptive” measure to goad the unpredictable North to a “soft landing.” And it takes some understanding on how Revere sees Pyongyang’s more pronounced confrontational and hostile posture as seen in recent times.

Revere believes that the recent hostile drive has to do with the sudden illness of Kim Jong-il. “It created an internal sense of crisis, causing North Koreans to be fearful of their perceived sense of outside threats, causing them to be more paranoid and more sensitive than they normally are,” Revere said.

The psychological displacement of the leadership there was manifested in a more extreme position they began to lay out on the six-party talks and the nuclear issue and their relations with South Korea, as well as with that of the United States and Japan, he added.

“This is a manifestation of their internal sense of urgency and crisis that came on as a result of their need to deal with political transition in the midst of very complicated international situation,” Revere said.

With it more internally focused than ever before, applying “outside rationale” to infer the internal workings of North Korea has become a much more unreliable intellectual endeavor, as Revere put it, “North Koreans have to do what they have to do for their own reasons.”

So, instead of mulling what Pyongyang is likely to do, Revere advises Seoul to do what it can, together with Washington and other members of the international community.

“And what we can do is to ensure that we are acting in our own individual and collective interests, so that the external behavior that we see by North Korea is dealt with and managed as best as we can,” said Revere.

He believes Monday’s live-fire drill by the South with the presence of U.S. observers was a good example. Defying the North Korean threat, South Korea went ahead with the exercises in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) in defense of its territory and sovereignty.

Revere thinks the South showed its resolve. “I think it’s important to send a message to North Korea.”

Although retaliation by the North didn’t materialize, Revere said the South should remain vigilant.

“I think we need to be very careful and alert as to possible additional future provocations,” said Revere. “North Koreans will act when they want to do, in a manner in which they feel is best for them. And we need to be prepared for all kinds of contingencies here.”

Revere said South Korea’s deterrence posture should include vigilance, preparations, sincerity and discipline.

“We cannot control North Korean behavior. So a lot of it is up to the North Koreans. But if we there is unity between the U.S. and South Korea and of course others as well, including Japan, and if we can hang together, be consistent and be clear that we are prepared to defend ourselves and work together, then I think North Korea will get the message that provocation and confrontation is not the way to go.”

On Dec. 6 in Washington, foreign ministers of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan sent a joint message of determination and deterrence to North Korea. Revere believes such a political gesture of solidarity will continue to play a significant role.

Revere also said South Korea should continue to try to reach out to other members of the international community, including China, to garner more understanding and support.

“We can’t control North Korean actions, but we can control our own responses and our own efforts to defend ourselves and the messages we send to North Korea,” Revere said.