Yoon's 'audacious initiative' for NK lacks details: experts

Kaesong Industrial Complex Support Center in Kaesong, North Korea is seen from a guard post in Panmunjom in Paju, Gyeonggi Province in this July file photo. President Yoon Suk-yeol announced his Audacious Initiative for North Korea's denuclearization which mainly consists of economic incentives. Joint Press Corps

By Kwon Mee-yoo

President Yoon Suk-yeol unveiled what he called the "audacious initiative," which consists of economic assistance for North Korea in exchange for its denuclearization, in his Liberation Day speech on Monday, but its feasibility has been questioned as it carries no guarantee of security and lacks details.

During his speech, Yoon said the initiative will "significantly improve North Korea's economy and its people's livelihoods in stages" if North Korea gives up its nuclear program and accepts his proposal.

"We will implement a large-scale food program, provide assistance for power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure and carry out projects to modernize ports and airports for international trade. We will also help enhance North Korea's agricultural productivity, offer assistance to modernize hospitals and medical infrastructure and implement international investment and financial support initiatives," Yoon said.

First mentioned during Yoon's inauguration speech in May as part of his North Korea policy, Yoon once again asked the Ministry of Unification to come up with a plan including economic support and security guarantees during the ministry's policy briefing to the president in July.

However, security issues were not included in Yoon's speech, leaving little to attract interest from North Korea.

Park Won-gon, a North Korean studies professor at Ewha Womans University, said the North is unlikely to accept Yoon's initiative as it has repeatedly opposed economic incentives in return for denuclearization.

"North Korea insists that nuclear strength can bring economic prosperity and recognizes economic incentives for giving up nukes as a denial of its regime," Park said.

President Yoon Suk-yeol delivers his Liberation Day speech, unveiling his administration's vision for North Korea's denuclearization in front of the presidential office in Yongsan District, central Seoul, Monday. Yonhap

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, said Yoon holds a Cold War era perspective on North Korea and the opinion that anti-communism is part of the independence movement.

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"Yoon's so-called 'audacious initiative' is not very different from the Lee Myung-bak administration's Denuclearization, Opening and 300 Initiative," Cheong said.

Cheong said if the Presidential Office thought North Korea would give up nuclear weapons to receive economic support from the South, which could lead the North Korean economy to rely on the South, it is a serious misunderstanding.

"The chances of North Korea denuclearizing are slim, but even if Pyongyang agrees to do so, it would take a long time in the process," Cheong said, adding that the Yoon administration lacks long-term perspective on this issue.

"It is practically impossible for complete denuclearization of North Korea, but to at least partially reduce the North's nuclear program, it is essential to cooperate with the international community closely. However, there was no mention of the U.S., China or Russia in Yoon's speech," Cheong said.

"North Korea might partially reduce its nuclear capabilities to lift international sanctions against North Korea, but Yoon's plan does not include any consideration for easing sanctions against North Korea, which holds great importance for Pyongyang."

Later in the day, First Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo gave a briefing on the initiative, explaining that Yoon's speech emphasized the economic part of the initiative, but added that it also encompasses political and military aspects.

"The goal of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's North Korea policy is to achieve a denuclearized, peaceful and prosperous Korean peninsula," Kim said.

He said that the administration has prepared a roadmap for political and military cooperation.

Kim said if the North comes to the negotiating table with sincerity, economic assistance can be provided in the early stages as well as a Resources-Food Exchange Program (R-FEP), inspired by the international community providing food in exchange for oil in Iraq's Oil for Food program.

A presidential office source hinted that the R-FEP could possibly lead to a phased lifting of the United Nations' sanctions against Pyongyang.

"Most of North Korea's mineral resources are subject to UN sanctions. Exchanging food with North Korea's resources could be discussed during the denuclearization process," the official said.

Leif-Eric Easley, international studies professor at Ewha Womans University, noted that domestic politics have driven down the Yoon administration's approval rating and Yoon's North Korea policy comes from that perspective.

"Because Pyongyang rejects most diplomatic contact, South Koreans are basically left to fight with themselves over North Korea policy. That is why it is important that the Yoon administration announced its audacious North Korea initiative," Easley said.

Easley advised the Yoon administration to abandon the factional attitude in policymaking, especially for inter-Korea and international diplomacy.

"If Seoul instead manages to set and maintain a bipartisan approach, it could more credibly deter North Korea, offer economic incentives for denuclearization and demand China play a constructive role," he said. "It can also develop an Indo-Pacific strategy alongside the United States and have a better hand in dealing with Japan."