[INTERVIEW] China, North Korea do not trust each other: CSIS

Arms control, threat reduction could be part of denuclearization process

By Kim Yoo-chul

Does China trust North Korea and who really holds the upper hand in the denuclearization process on the peninsula? Also, does North Korea's attractive value as a buffer zone for China outweigh the risks of tolerating a defiant nuclear neighbor?

China is viewed as the crucial lifeline of the North Korean both economically and politically. But when it comes to the peace process on the Korean Peninsula, there are frustrations and doubts about China's role in North Korea's denuclearization efforts.

The most common complaint is that Beijing prioritizes the stability of the Kim Jong-un regime over the denuclearization process and thus the upholding of the non-proliferation regime, while the United States is seen as a possible destabilizer plotting to contain China. Beijing has been reluctant to apply sanctions measures for fear of triggering the North's collapse.

Despite China and North Korea maintaining a strong partnership for decades, however, relations between the two have worsened recently because Pyongyang has accelerated its nuclear and ballistic missile development programs under its leader Kim Jong-un. Additionally, the Kim used high-profile Chinese events as a chance to level up his military provocations.

Gen. Paul J. LaCamera, center, commander of the U.S. Forces Korea attends the activation ceremony for the United States Space Forces Korea in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, Dec. 14, 2022. U.S. military set up space-monitoring organizations, United States Space Forces Korea, in South Korea, aiming to keep an eye on North Korea's nuclear and missile activity as its capabilities continue to improve. AP-Yonhap

Speaking to The Korea Times, Ellen Kim, a deputy director of the Korea Chair at the Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said chances are low the North will support U.S.-initiated policies regarding the denuclearization process on the peninsula as both Pyongyang and Beijing know that one cannot abandon the other.

"China and North Korea do not trust each other. However, North Korea cannot abandon China for the political and economic support Beijing provides to the North Korean regime. China cannot abandon North Korea for the strategic buffer it offers. Such a mutual hostage relationship does not exist between North Korea and the United States, not to mention the fact that there is a deep mistrust between them. So I am skeptical whether North Korea would be willing to take risks and support the United States against China," the CSIS expert said in a recent interview.

CSIS Deputy Director Ellen Kim

Kim added that China's inaction in terms of breaking the current impasse in talks aimed at denuclearizing Pyongyang can lead to negative consequences.

"Any effort by the U.S. to deepen military cooperation with South Korea, Japan, and other regional countries to address North Korea issues will likely make China uncomfortable, since China could perceive such cooperation as being targeted at itself, as we saw from the THAAD case. North Korea's nuclear escalation will lead to developments that Beijing would not want to see in the region, for instance, Japan's military rearmament, closer military cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo, and strengthened Washington-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral cooperation, and a potential nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia in the future," the deputy director said.

In the meantime, she said North Korea is "trying to force the United States and South Korea to accept it as a nuclear state, pushing the security situation on the peninsula into an unknown territory."

After inspecting a test of its latest Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the North Korean leader pledged to counter U.S. nuclear threats with nuclear weapons and stressed that his regime's prime goal is to have the world's most powerful nuclear force.

"Kim's recent remarks are extremely concerning. The country has finished the necessary preparations for the (nuclear) test, and Kim will likely choose the time that he perceives will give North Korea the maximum benefits and leverage, both domestically and internationally, to push the world to accept the reality that North Korea is a nuclear weapons state even though the United States and South Korea refuse to acknowledge it as such," she said.

Preconditions for NK's return to dialogue, restoring Seoul-Tokyo relations

Washington has long been interested in maintaining the status quo by preventing the North's military provocations and resisting North Korea's attempt to nullify the armistice agreement signed after the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War. The 1996 peace initiative between United States and North Korea failed because the U.S. didn't accept the North's request to end what it called a hostile policy against it.

The Perry Process helped revive some momentum for dialogue and nuclear diplomacy. However, the Bush administration's hardline policy against Pyongyang caused the peninsula to experience a nuclear crisis back in 2002. The CSIS expert said nuclear negotiations could begin if North Korea's core demands are addressed.

South Korean special representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Kim Gunn, left, shakes hands with Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director General for Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Takehiro Funakoshi, right, as U.S. special representative for North Korea Sung Y. Kim, center, who is also U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia, looks on at the start of their trilateral meeting on North Korea at the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, Dec. 13, 2022. AP-Yonhap

But she believes the complete denuclearization of North Korea seems to be a difficult goal to achieve.

"The current diplomatic impasse is clearly due to North Korea's disinterest in talks with the U.S. and South Korea, which seems in part because North Korea wants to signal that the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) of North Korea is off the negotiation table. But if North Korea's internal and/or external (particularly with respect to China and Russia) environment changes, there could be a window of opportunity that North Korea may want to resume dialogue with the United States and/or South Korea to seek a partial sanctions relief and other things," Kim said.

She stressed that the North's denuclearization "should remain a long-term goal" for the Washington-Seoul alliance, even though the denuclearization may start with arms control and threat reduction.

"We should not give up the North's denuclearization because if we do that, this will make North Korea believe that their strategy of nuclear coercion works and could lead the country to make miscalculations and become more aggressive," she said.

The CSIS deputy director said starting arms control talks with North Korea is a possible way to revive dialogue about denuclearization.

"Arms control and threat reduction could be part of the denuclearization process. They are not necessarily two separate things. The current diplomatic deadlock with North Korea, with few viable options on the table to stop North Korea's missile and nuclear tests, leaves the scenario of arms control and threat reduction talks with North Korea quite attractive. And that could be one way how negotiations could begin in the future if North Korea returns to dialogue," Kim responded.

Regarding questions over whether the start of arms control talks with North Korea would cause controversy among the United States and its key allies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan, Kim said, "This will prompt serious debates within South Korea, the United States, and Japan about what arms reduction of a nuclear North Korea means for them (for instance, do arms reduction talks mean giving up on the denuclearization of North Korea? What is the implication of that for U.S. extended deterrence commitments to South Korea and Japan? Can South Korea and Japan coexist with a nuclear North Korea? If not, will South Korea demand the United States to deploy tactical nuclear weapons?). So in that case, it would become very critical for the United States to come up with measures to provide new security assurances to its allies and work very closely with them to develop their common strategy down this path."

A TV screen shows a file image of North Korea's military exercise during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, Oct. 14, 2022. North Korea's military said Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022, that it ordered frontline units to fire artillery rounds into the sea for the second consecutive day in a tit-for-tat response to South Korean live-fire drills in an inland border region. AP-Yonhap

Talks between the United States and North Kores have stalled because the blockbuster in-person meeting between the North Korean leader and then U.S. President Donald Trump in Vietnam, collapsed. While the Biden administration also remains open to dialogue without any preconditions, there has been no substantial progress so far.

The CSIS official went on to say that restoring Seoul-Tokyo relations is vital for the United States, because there are so many common challenges in the region that require close cooperation with South Korea and Japan.

"South Korea and Japan are not simply military allies to the United States. They are two economically powerful countries and successful democracies in Asia, which is rare in the region, that share common values and have stakes in preserving the rules-based liberal international order. Because of that, improved Seoul-Tokyo ties are very important for the United States as Washington is trying to work with like-minded countries to deter any unilateral attempt to revise the status quo and the rise of authoritarianism," she said.