By Yi Whan-woo
The reopening of the inter-Korean industrial park in Gaeseong, North Korea, is emerging as a presidential campaign issue.
Moon Jae-in and Lee Jae-myung, presidential hopefuls from the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), have pledged to make efforts to reopen the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) if elected.
They claim this will help restart stalled talks between the two Koreas and save South Korean firms that have plants there. The companies have been suffering snowballing losses following the shutdown a year ago.
But other potential presidential contestants are cautious about joining Moon and Lee amid concerns the resumption of the GIC could be a breach of the U.N. Security Council's (UNSC) nuclear sanctions on North Korea.
The Park Geun-hye government closed the GIC on Feb. 10, 2016, claiming that the Kim Jong-un regime was pocketing earnings from North Korean employees there and funneling funds to the UNSC-banned nuclear program.
Against this backdrop, Ahn Cheol-soo, a former co-chairman of the minor opposition People's Party, has taken an ambiguous stance, saying, "The shutdown of the GIC doesn't do any good for peace on the Korean Peninsula but we must be prudent over whether to resume its operation."
Another DPK presidential hopeful, South Chungcheong Province Governor An Hee-jung, says Pyongyang's sincerity in making changes, such as resuming inter-Korean dialogue and denuclearization efforts, should precede any GIC reopening.
Two conservatives from the Bareun Party — Rep. Yoo Seong-min and Gyeonggi Province Governor Nam Kyung-pil — have echoed a similar view by proposing conditions for the GIC's reopening. Yoo wants "progress in resolving North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs" while Nam seeks to "create a peaceful atmosphere on the peninsula."
The accumulated loss of the 123 South Korean enterprises at the GIC is estimated to be at least 250 billion won ($218.1 million), according to an emergency committee aimed at helping the victims.
The victims say they have had difficulty securing new factories and experienced other problems in reviving their businesses.
The Ministry of Unification, citing its own data, downplayed the concerns. It said 114, or 92.7 percent, of the 123 companies are operating and their average sales last year were about 79 percent of those in 2015.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Thursday reopening the GIC "does not correspond with" the international cooperation to press North Korea.
Harsh reality
Some analysts said Moon and Lee are not realistic in their pledges and that they are trying to court more left-wing voters.
"The support groups of Moon and Lee tend to overlap and they need to ensure wooing more supporters ahead of the primary by making what can be seen as radical promises," said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University.
Shin said the situation is more urgent for Lee, a Seongnam mayor who has been trailing Moon in the polls. Moon, a former DPK chairman, has had a firm lead for weeks.
"The issues over the GIC are not something that can be resolved on our own," Shin said. "It is complicated and involves discussions with the United States and Russia, among others."
Political commentator Hwang Jae-soon agreed.
"The GIC is the most noteworthy legacy of late President Kim Dae-jung and underscoring a need to resume its operation can be effective to bring the voters together for Moon and Lee only until a DPK presidential candidate is chosen," he said. "It will be burdensome for a candidate to oppose the UNSC sanctions, the U.S. pressure and other international measures taken against North Korea in the presidential campaign."
Other experts disagreed, claiming Seoul's suspicions over Pyongyang's exploitation of the GIC to funnel funds to the nuclear program are not proven.
"Moreover, the UNSC does not explicitly state anything about closing the GIC," said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the issues over the GIC should be separated from national security and ideology.
"It makes more sense to say that the GIC is more related to economic interest," he said. "Moreover, the voters are fed up with ideological disputes surrounding North Korea."
The reopening of the inter-Korean industrial park in Gaeseong, North Korea, is emerging as a presidential campaign issue.
Moon Jae-in and Lee Jae-myung, presidential hopefuls from the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), have pledged to make efforts to reopen the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) if elected.
They claim this will help restart stalled talks between the two Koreas and save South Korean firms that have plants there. The companies have been suffering snowballing losses following the shutdown a year ago.
But other potential presidential contestants are cautious about joining Moon and Lee amid concerns the resumption of the GIC could be a breach of the U.N. Security Council's (UNSC) nuclear sanctions on North Korea.
The Park Geun-hye government closed the GIC on Feb. 10, 2016, claiming that the Kim Jong-un regime was pocketing earnings from North Korean employees there and funneling funds to the UNSC-banned nuclear program.
Against this backdrop, Ahn Cheol-soo, a former co-chairman of the minor opposition People's Party, has taken an ambiguous stance, saying, "The shutdown of the GIC doesn't do any good for peace on the Korean Peninsula but we must be prudent over whether to resume its operation."
Another DPK presidential hopeful, South Chungcheong Province Governor An Hee-jung, says Pyongyang's sincerity in making changes, such as resuming inter-Korean dialogue and denuclearization efforts, should precede any GIC reopening.
Two conservatives from the Bareun Party — Rep. Yoo Seong-min and Gyeonggi Province Governor Nam Kyung-pil — have echoed a similar view by proposing conditions for the GIC's reopening. Yoo wants "progress in resolving North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs" while Nam seeks to "create a peaceful atmosphere on the peninsula."
The accumulated loss of the 123 South Korean enterprises at the GIC is estimated to be at least 250 billion won ($218.1 million), according to an emergency committee aimed at helping the victims.
The victims say they have had difficulty securing new factories and experienced other problems in reviving their businesses.
The Ministry of Unification, citing its own data, downplayed the concerns. It said 114, or 92.7 percent, of the 123 companies are operating and their average sales last year were about 79 percent of those in 2015.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Thursday reopening the GIC "does not correspond with" the international cooperation to press North Korea.
Harsh reality
Some analysts said Moon and Lee are not realistic in their pledges and that they are trying to court more left-wing voters.
"The support groups of Moon and Lee tend to overlap and they need to ensure wooing more supporters ahead of the primary by making what can be seen as radical promises," said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University.
Shin said the situation is more urgent for Lee, a Seongnam mayor who has been trailing Moon in the polls. Moon, a former DPK chairman, has had a firm lead for weeks.
"The issues over the GIC are not something that can be resolved on our own," Shin said. "It is complicated and involves discussions with the United States and Russia, among others."
Political commentator Hwang Jae-soon agreed.
"The GIC is the most noteworthy legacy of late President Kim Dae-jung and underscoring a need to resume its operation can be effective to bring the voters together for Moon and Lee only until a DPK presidential candidate is chosen," he said. "It will be burdensome for a candidate to oppose the UNSC sanctions, the U.S. pressure and other international measures taken against North Korea in the presidential campaign."
Other experts disagreed, claiming Seoul's suspicions over Pyongyang's exploitation of the GIC to funnel funds to the nuclear program are not proven.
"Moreover, the UNSC does not explicitly state anything about closing the GIC," said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the issues over the GIC should be separated from national security and ideology.
"It makes more sense to say that the GIC is more related to economic interest," he said. "Moreover, the voters are fed up with ideological disputes surrounding North Korea."
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