Seoul wary of 'Pelosi effect' on ties with Beijing

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, right, and U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wave during their meeting in Taipei, Taiwan, Wednesday. EPA-Yonhap

No meetings planned between No. 3 US politician and South Korean president, foreign minister

By Kang Seung-woo

A visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to South Korea is likely to perplex Seoul further in the handling of its relations with China, which are already at an inflection point due to pending bilateral yet volatile issues.

Pelosi is widely expected to urge longtime ally South Korea to respond to the U.S.-led campaign against China's authoritarianism, according to diplomatic observers.

The U.S. house speaker, the third-highest official in the U.S. government, arrived here, Wednesday, for a two-day trip following her visit to Taiwan.

Her visit to South Korea, the first time since 2015, comes as the United States has been seeking more coordination among its allies and partners to counter China, as evidenced by its proposal for Seoul to join the Chip 4 or Fab 4, an envisaged chip alliance with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. But the Chinese government has also pressured and persuaded Seoul against edging away from Beijing, its largest trading partner. The chip alliance is a platform apparently aimed at countering China's growing influence on global supply chains.

In addition, China has urged South Korea to uphold the previous administration's commitment to the "Three Nos" policy on the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) deployment, which called for no additional THAAD missile battery deployments, no Korean integration into a U.S.-led regional missile defense system and no trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan.

"Amid the deepening U.S.-China rivalry, China has threatened military actions and it could invoke a U.S. response in kind, which would eventually affect South Korea, because of the South's alliance with the U.S.," said Kim Heung-kyu, the director of the U.S.-China Policy Institute at Ajou University.

"With Pelosi's visit to Taipei, the Chinese government could take retaliatory action against Taiwan, which would work to South Korea's advantage in the short term because South Korea and Taiwan compete in the semiconductor sector, but it would not necessarily be a good thing for us in the long run, so stable relations between the U.S. and China, and between Taiwan and China will be in the national interest here," Kim said.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, also said Pelosi's visit could leave less diplomatic room for South Korea to maneuver in its ties with China.

"As the rivalry is intertwined with each country's respective domestic politics, both the U.S. and China cannot back off against each other," he said.

"In that respect, with the hegemonic competition between the two powerhouses further intensifying, if South Korea decides to commit to the Chip 4, possible Chinese responses could be fierier and inflammable," he said.

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Park said Pelosi's op-ed, posted on The Washington Post, Tuesday (local time), summed up what her plan will be while in South Korea.

"She described the U.S.-China competition as a choice between autocracy and democracy and as an extension of the article, she is highly anticipated to discuss the issue here and hope that we pick the U.S. side," Park said.

"In addition, while taking issue with North Korea's human rights abuses, she is also likely to take issue with those of China, and we should deal with those issues in a smooth manner," he said.

Traditionally, when senior U.S. government officials visit here, they hold a meeting with either the president, the foreign minister or other senior ministry officials. But this time, National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo will be the lone senior official from the South Korean side ― a stark contrast to Pelosi's previous visit seven years ago when she met former President Park Geun-hye and former Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, as well as former National Assembly Speaker Chung Ui-hwa.

Currently, President Yoon Suk-yeol is on vacation, while Foreign Minister Park Jin left for Cambodia on Wednesday to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum.

A resident watches news about the expected visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in Taipei, Taiwan, Tuesday. EPA-Yonhap

However, diplomatic experts believe the absence of meetings with the president or foreign minister during Pelosi's visit here is due to the South Korean government's cautious stance on not provoking China.

"Pelosi is the No. 3 politician in the U.S. and if this were in the past, the president or the foreign minister would have tried to hold talks with her, but I think that this time the government seems to have decided not to excessively politicize the issue and unnecessarily antagonize China," Kim said.

Park also said, "If she makes a visit to the foreign ministry, they would be talking about foreign affairs, which will inevitably feature issues linked to Taiwan and China and weigh down on the ministry."

"In that sense, the foreign ministry may not have tried hard to arrange a meeting with Pelosi," he said.

As for the Pelosi visit, the presidential office just hoped that she might have successful talks with the Assembly speaker, Wednesday, while maintaining its stance that the nation will continue close communication with the nations concerned on all issues under the banner of the need for peace and stability in the region through dialogue and cooperation.

Kim said he thought the South Korean government should not get too involved in the U.S.-China rivalry on the occasion of Pelosi's visit, although he suggested that Seoul should also stay mindful of the Yoon administration's pledge to strengthen its alliance with Washington.

"Frankly speaking, her visit is more like seeking her own political gains, so I think that the South Korean government need not stretch the meaning of it to national interests," Kim said.