By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea is likely to conduct its fourth nuclear test in October to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the Workers' Party, according to analysts Thursday.
"The ability to place a nuclear weapon on a missile will be a banner event for the North Korean leadership," said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. "The Kim Jong-un regime will highly likely utilize the anniversary as a chance to show off its nuclear prowess to its people, as well as the world.
"There is a greater possibility that the test will take place around that time." He said a test will be unlikely before that, given that Kim will visit Russia in May to attend a ceremony commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union's part in the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Shin In-kyun, president of the Korea Defense Network, echoed An's view, saying, "The North is highly likely carry out a fourth test this year." Shin said the possible test will take place at a time when the United States announces a plan to use ground forces to combat IS.
"Pyongyang probably wants to utilize that timing as it knows Washington has neither the time nor energy to focus on the North and the Islamic State's threat," he said.
Shin also noted the fourth test will have more destructive power than the third.
During the third test conducted on Feb. 12, 2013, seismologists here and around the world detected a seismic event with a magnitude ranging from 4.9 to 5.1 on the Richter scale.
The Ministry of National Defense at the time estimated the explosive power at 6 to 7 kilotons.
"It would be meaningless for the North to test the same power this time," he said. "And the power of the third test was considerably threatening."
The destructive power of the previous tests has consistently increased — 1 kiloton for the first test in October 2006, and 2 to 6 kilotons for the second in May 2009.
Earlier in the day, a vernacular newspaper, quoting unidentified government sources, raised another possibility of the North carrying out the test in late April or May when South Korea and the U.S. wrap up their joint military exercises — Key Resolve and Foal Eagle.
The speculation came a few days after Joel Wit, the chief analyst of 38 North which specializes in North Korea affairs, said that the secretive state could develop 100 nuclear weapons by 2020.
Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said Pyongyang's nuclear capability has reached the level that it can carry out a test at any time with a short period of preparation.
"Signs of such preparations are inevitably detected by satellite, and we have yet to see such signs so far," he said. "So, we cannot confirm the timing of the test."
The spokesman stressed that if the isolated state pushes for the fourth test, it will have to bear the international sanctions that will follow.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korea Studies at Dongguk University, downplayed mounting speculation surrounding any test.
"The chance seems to be low as the fourth test will destroy Pyongyang-Beijing relations as well as Pyongyang-Moscow ties, which will not be good for the North," he said.
Follow Jun Ji-hye on Twitter @TheKopJihye
North Korea is likely to conduct its fourth nuclear test in October to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the Workers' Party, according to analysts Thursday.
"The ability to place a nuclear weapon on a missile will be a banner event for the North Korean leadership," said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. "The Kim Jong-un regime will highly likely utilize the anniversary as a chance to show off its nuclear prowess to its people, as well as the world.
"There is a greater possibility that the test will take place around that time." He said a test will be unlikely before that, given that Kim will visit Russia in May to attend a ceremony commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union's part in the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Shin In-kyun, president of the Korea Defense Network, echoed An's view, saying, "The North is highly likely carry out a fourth test this year." Shin said the possible test will take place at a time when the United States announces a plan to use ground forces to combat IS.
"Pyongyang probably wants to utilize that timing as it knows Washington has neither the time nor energy to focus on the North and the Islamic State's threat," he said.
Shin also noted the fourth test will have more destructive power than the third.
During the third test conducted on Feb. 12, 2013, seismologists here and around the world detected a seismic event with a magnitude ranging from 4.9 to 5.1 on the Richter scale.
The Ministry of National Defense at the time estimated the explosive power at 6 to 7 kilotons.
"It would be meaningless for the North to test the same power this time," he said. "And the power of the third test was considerably threatening."
The destructive power of the previous tests has consistently increased — 1 kiloton for the first test in October 2006, and 2 to 6 kilotons for the second in May 2009.
Earlier in the day, a vernacular newspaper, quoting unidentified government sources, raised another possibility of the North carrying out the test in late April or May when South Korea and the U.S. wrap up their joint military exercises — Key Resolve and Foal Eagle.
The speculation came a few days after Joel Wit, the chief analyst of 38 North which specializes in North Korea affairs, said that the secretive state could develop 100 nuclear weapons by 2020.
Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said Pyongyang's nuclear capability has reached the level that it can carry out a test at any time with a short period of preparation.
"Signs of such preparations are inevitably detected by satellite, and we have yet to see such signs so far," he said. "So, we cannot confirm the timing of the test."
The spokesman stressed that if the isolated state pushes for the fourth test, it will have to bear the international sanctions that will follow.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korea Studies at Dongguk University, downplayed mounting speculation surrounding any test.
"The chance seems to be low as the fourth test will destroy Pyongyang-Beijing relations as well as Pyongyang-Moscow ties, which will not be good for the North," he said.
Follow Jun Ji-hye on Twitter @TheKopJihye
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