Political dynamics of Northeast Asia shifting

By Kang Seung-woo

Northeast Asia is a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, with each country bustling to find strategies that will maximize their national interests.

As one of the G2 nations, China is fast emerging to vie with the United States for regional hegemony, while the U.S. is regrouping its allies in order to contain this new rising threat.

Caught between the push and pull of this power game, Japan, eager to deny its wartime past, is on its way to exercising its right to collective self-defense. It is also seeking to improve diplomatic relations with North Korea with the goal of resolving abductions of its nationals.

Pyongyang is resorting to Russia and Japan to cope with strained ties with China since the purge of Jang Song-thaek in December. It is making a series of "peace overtures," pushing Seoul to restore inter-Korean relations onto the normal track.

South Korea is required to boost diplomacy amid quickly shifting political dynamics in the region.

China

President Park Geun-hye and Chinese President Xi Jinping greet children during a welcome ceremony at Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, Thursday. It is the first time in more than two decades that a Chinese president visited Seoul ahead of Pyongyang, Beijing's oldest ally. / Yonhap

Since taking office in November 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasized the nation's military buildup, with its defense budget posting a double-digit gain in the past four years.

While proposing the concept of a "new type of great-power relations" to the U.S. ― based on the principles of "no confrontation or conflict," "mutual respect" and "win-win cooperation" ― China is taking aggressive action against a territorial row with Japan.

Last November, it declared its own air defense identification zone, increasing patrols and naval exercises in the East and South China Sea.

Xi called for a new security framework for all of Asia at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Shanghai in May, saying that Asian problems should be solved by Asian people, but his security concept is inevitably expected to create friction with the U.S. "pivot" to Asia policy.

U.S.

U.S. President Barack Obama

The U.S. has seen its role diminishing in the region, dented by its declining economy.

Given this, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a plan in February to reduce the defense budget. This will shrink by more than $75 billion over the next two years and the Army to its smallest size since World War II. It will also eliminate an entire fleet of Air Force fighter planes.

Under the Barack Obama Administration's Pivot to Asia plan, the U.S. is trying to strengthen the security alliance with regional countries. They are Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Korea.

It is euphemistically referred to as a rebalancing policy, but more concretely, it is aimed at sharing duties among allies to contain a rising China.

Earlier this month, the U.S. government expressed full support for Japan's decision to exercise its right to collective self-defense, with hopes that Tokyo will replace the U.S. in tightening the military noose in the region, according to diplomatic experts.

In addition, the U.S. has been intensifying pressure on South Korea to join its missile defense system.

"There was consideration being taken in order to consider Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) being deployed here in Korea. It is a U.S. initiative, and in fact, I recommended it as the commander," U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti said in a forum in Seoul last month.

Seoul is strongly opposed to the growing U.S. calls, due to China, its No. 1 trading partner.

Although the U.S. missile defense system is outwardly to intercept North Korean missiles, its real goal is to keep the Chinese military in check.

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaks to media at his official residence in Tokyo, Thursday. Abe said that Japan would lift some of its sanctions against North Korea and make utmost efforts for a comprehensive solution to the decades-old issue of Japanese citizens that were abducted by the reclusive state. / Yonhap

The Shinzo Abe administration has accepted U.S. calls to share security duties, but, in return, it has maximized its strategic interests.

Over the last two years, the Japanese government increased its defense budget to serve as an advance guard against China and got the green light from the U.S. on the right to collective self-defense that will allow its forces to expand its role overseas.

In addition, Abe is getting U.S. support in a territorial dispute over the Senkaku-Diaoyu Islands with China.

In April, Obama said that following a summit with Abe, the U.S. would defend Japan against Beijing over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea because they were included in the U.S.-Japan security treaty and that the U.S. was obliged to defend them.

However, Japan has yet to reach a deal at the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade talks with the U.S. to protect its agriculture and turns a deaf year to U.S. concerns over its flawed perceptions of history.

Recently, Japan has begun talks with North Korea about Japanese citizens kidnapped by the North Korean regime during the Cold War.

North Korea

Although relations with its oldest ally China have chilled, the Kim Jong-un regime is seeking closer ties with Russia and Japan.

Taking care of the abduction issue, the North got Japan to ease sanctions on the secretive state for its nuclear program, while mending fences with Moscow.

Hwang Pyong-so, the director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People's Army (KPA), met with the Russian military band, saying "Kim Jong-un hopes that our bilateral relations will be brought to another level."

"In order to break the situation of isolation, North Korea is resorting to Russia and Japan," said Kim Youl-soo, a professor at Sungshin Women's University.

"But it has additionally strained relations between Beijing and Pyongyang."

As part of diversifying diplomatic channels, the North has approached the South this year.

In January, it proposed to take a set of measures including the "cessation of slander" between the two Koreas, followed by the family reunions in February. Last month, it also proposed that the two rival Koreas stop all military hostilities.

South Korea

The Park Geun-hye administration is required to pursue balanced diplomacy between China and the United States.

China took 26.1 percent of Korea's total exports in 2013, with an annual trade surplus topping $600 million. Some 28,500 American troops are stationed here against North Korea.

Last month, Daniel Russel, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, stressed that South Korea and the U.S. need to share investments in missile defense.

"We are constantly working to improve readiness and interoperability in order to meet existing and emerging security threats. This includes shared investments in ballistic missile defense…," he said at a forum in Washington.

Choi Jong-kun, a professor of international security at Yonsei University, said that Korea's participation in the U.S. missile defense system means crossing the red line.

"The Korean government needs to deal with the issue," he told Yonhap News. In addition, there are growing calls to adopt a more flexible and aggressive approach about North Korea issues.

"The Park administration has been in passive mode in dealing with the North," said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute.

"Although it is not easy to directly resolve the nuclear issue, the government needs to reopen a dialogue channel and the two sides must interact with each other."