What's behind North Korea's rising belligerence?

North Korean soldiers stage an artillery firing exercise, in this photo carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency on Oct. 10. Yonhap

Pyongyang stages barrage of military provocations overnight

By Nam Hyun-woo

North Korea staged multiple military actions including a missile launch, air drill and artillery firing over a single night, Thursday to Friday, in what appears to be unprecedented belligerence in recent years. Experts said tensions on the Korean Peninsula are only increasing as the two Koreas resort to hardline approaches, and it is becoming more difficult to predict the ultimate purpose of the North's recent provocations.

According to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), North Korea on early Friday launched a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) into the East Sea and fired about 170 rounds of artillery shells into the East and West Seas and some of the rounds landed in maritime buffer zones set under a 2018 inter-Korean agreement on ceasing hostile military actions.

The JCS also said that more than 10 North Korean military aircraft staged menacing flights close to the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the border area from 10:30 p.m., Thursday, to 12:20 a.m., Friday, which caused the Republic of Korea Air Force to scramble its F-35A stealth fighters and other assets to the scene.

The North Korean aircraft staged the flights between the NLL and the Tactical Action Line, which was set by South Korea's military about 20 to 50 kilometers from the NLL, to earn time to react to the North's aerial provocations. It was the first case of North Korean aircraft flying south to the Tactical Acton Line since October 2012.

The JCS said the rounds did not drop in South Korean waters but landed in a maritime area north of the NLL in the buffer zone. Since the 2018 comprehensive military agreement prohibits artillery shelling in waters in the buffer zone, the JCS said, "The North has clearly violated the agreement."

Seoul's Ministry of National Defense sent a statement to Pyongyang to note that the artillery firing was a clear violation of the military agreement, but the North is yet to show any response.

Instead, the North's Korean People's Army said it conducted the shelling "as a strong military countermeasure" to South Korea, which had conducted artillery exercises for more than 10 hours.

The JCS said that U.S. Forces Korea had staged a drill involving multiple launch rocket systems at a firing range in Gangwon Province, but that it was a "planned exercise" which had launched rockets toward the South outside of the military buffer zone.

Also on Friday, the South Korean government announced independent sanctions, blacklisting 15 North Korean individuals and 16 institutions for their involvement in the North's nuclear and missile programs and efforts to evade other sanctions. It was the first case of such unilateral sanctions by Seoul in five years, when it imposed one in 2017 in response to an intercontinental ballistic missile launch by Pyongyang.

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"This type of material provocation by the North is always followed by a political offensive and socio-psychological offensive aimed at reunifying the Korean Peninsula under communism," South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told reporters Friday morning, adding that his top priority is "having a firm awareness of the enemy and a strong commitment to defending the Constitution by upholding our liberal democracy."

President Yoon Suk-yeol gestures as he answers reporters' questions at his office in Yongsan District, Seoul, Friday. Yonhap

Unclear intentions

With tension increasing on the two Koreas, which are already walking a tightrope following a string of the North's missile tests since last month, experts said that the Korean Peninsula now seems to be mired in a vicious spiral, and that it is becoming more difficult to ascertain North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's ultimate goal with the continued tests.

"There seems to be no clear purpose for the recent actions," said Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "In the past, we used to say there is an equation that the North's provocations are aimed at greater leverage in talks. However, the recent moves are not the case."

In the past, the North's strategic goal was gaining U.S. recognition as a nuclear state and lifting the sanctions that are hampering its trade. However, North Korea is now assumed to have produced many nuclear weapons and there is less attractiveness in gaining such recognition, Go said.

"Rather, the recent moves are assumed to be aimed at gaining international attention for its seventh nuclear test with missile launches and other provocations, and showing its force to the world," Go said. "Bragging about its nuclear forces seems to be the ultimate purpose of the recent moves."

A TV screen shows a file image of North Korea's missile launch during a news program at Seoul Station in Seoul, Friday. North Korea early Friday launched a short-range ballistic missile toward its eastern waters and flew warplanes near the border with South Korea, further raising animosity triggered by its recent barrage of weapons tests. AP-Yonhap

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said Friday's provocations should be seen as its reaction against South Korea's strengthened military posture and Seoul's debates over discarding the military agreement so as to contain Pyongyang's anticipated upcoming nuclear test.

"It was unusual that the North announced that it was reacting to a 10-hour long artillery drill," Hong said. "It seems like the shelling was aimed at testing whether Seoul is really thinking about breaking the military agreement. If the North dares to ignore the agreement, it can simply arm its soldiers in the Demilitarized Zone."

Hong said that many South Korean politicians assume that the North is "staging the military actions with some great purpose in mind," but there are fair chances that Pyongyang is just responding to Seoul's stance of enhancing extended deterrence with the U.S.

"If we look into the situation from North Korea's shoes, South Korea's new Yoon government abruptly started to mention extended deterrence," Hong said. "Then, it brought a U.S. aircraft carrier for naval drills, so the North also started to react. And now, South Korea is talking about deploying U.S. nuclear weapons or developing its own warheads."

He added, "I'm not trying to justify the North's military actions, but it is questionable whether the current spiral of provocation-punishment is helpful in controlling the situation of the Korean Peninsula. … The North has become confident about its weapon system. Unlike in the past, there will not be a breather if the two sides keep raising tensions."