By Jun Ji-hye
The North Korean military's winter drills that will begin next month are drawing keen attention because Pyongyang has not conducted any provocations for more than 60 days.
Military officials here said Monday how the North will behave during the exercises may be a barometer of its future course of action _ to continue its provocations or to come to the table for dialogue _ as it will take place after the visit of Chinese and Russian delegations to Pyongyang.
The North's last provocation was conducted Sept. 15 when it launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan. The suspension of the provocations has raised cautious optimism about a possible change in the North's attitude.
According to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), signs have been recently detected that the North's military is preparing for its months-long winter exercises.
Last year, the repressive state carried out a massive artillery drill to mark the beginning of the exercises, raising military tension on the Korean Peninsula.
"The South Korean military is keeping a full readiness posture against the possibility of provocations," a JCS official said on condition of anonymity.
Chinese diplomats including Song Tao, the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping, arrived in Pyongyang, Friday, and met with senior officials including Choe Ryong-hae, the vice chairman of the Central Committee of the North's ruling Workers' Party.
The visit was designed to brief the North of the outcome of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, held last month, but Xi's special envoy was also believed to have delivered a report on the recent U.S.-China summit to the North's officials.
During the Nov. 9 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump pressed Xi to take more action to rein in North Korea.
The Russian delegation is also scheduled to visit Pyongyang next week.
Experts say the level of the provocations during the drills, if the North conducts any, will define the level of tension around the peninsula.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul's Dongguk University, said it seemed rare for the North to have stopped its provocations for more than 60 days, saying the North has been probably taking a wait-and-see attitude.
"North Korea may have waited to see how the U.S. dealt with North Korean issues as Trump conducted his Asian tour during which time South Korea-U.S. and China-U.S. summits took place," Kim said during his cable TV appearance.
On the other hand, Park Hwee-rhak, dean of the Graduate School of Politics and Leadership at Kookmin University, said the North is believed to have suspended its provocations due to technical problems in developing an operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
The experts cited the beginning of next year when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will deliver his New Year address, and his birthday, Jan. 8, as other possible times for provocations to be resumed.
The North Korean military's winter drills that will begin next month are drawing keen attention because Pyongyang has not conducted any provocations for more than 60 days.
Military officials here said Monday how the North will behave during the exercises may be a barometer of its future course of action _ to continue its provocations or to come to the table for dialogue _ as it will take place after the visit of Chinese and Russian delegations to Pyongyang.
The North's last provocation was conducted Sept. 15 when it launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan. The suspension of the provocations has raised cautious optimism about a possible change in the North's attitude.
According to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), signs have been recently detected that the North's military is preparing for its months-long winter exercises.
Last year, the repressive state carried out a massive artillery drill to mark the beginning of the exercises, raising military tension on the Korean Peninsula.
"The South Korean military is keeping a full readiness posture against the possibility of provocations," a JCS official said on condition of anonymity.
Chinese diplomats including Song Tao, the special envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping, arrived in Pyongyang, Friday, and met with senior officials including Choe Ryong-hae, the vice chairman of the Central Committee of the North's ruling Workers' Party.
The visit was designed to brief the North of the outcome of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, held last month, but Xi's special envoy was also believed to have delivered a report on the recent U.S.-China summit to the North's officials.
During the Nov. 9 summit, U.S. President Donald Trump pressed Xi to take more action to rein in North Korea.
The Russian delegation is also scheduled to visit Pyongyang next week.
Experts say the level of the provocations during the drills, if the North conducts any, will define the level of tension around the peninsula.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul's Dongguk University, said it seemed rare for the North to have stopped its provocations for more than 60 days, saying the North has been probably taking a wait-and-see attitude.
"North Korea may have waited to see how the U.S. dealt with North Korean issues as Trump conducted his Asian tour during which time South Korea-U.S. and China-U.S. summits took place," Kim said during his cable TV appearance.
On the other hand, Park Hwee-rhak, dean of the Graduate School of Politics and Leadership at Kookmin University, said the North is believed to have suspended its provocations due to technical problems in developing an operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
The experts cited the beginning of next year when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will deliver his New Year address, and his birthday, Jan. 8, as other possible times for provocations to be resumed.
