 President Lee Myung-bak, third from left, presides over an emergency Cabinet meeting for the Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) drill in an underground chamber at Cheong Wa Dae, Tuesday. The war game first took place in 1975 to enhance interoperability between the militaries of Korea and the United States. The drill continues until Aug. 26. / Yonhap |
By Kim Young-jinThe Lee Myung-bak administration is not likely to make brisk moves towards reconciliation with North Korea, analysts said Tuesday, a day after a major presidential speech that touched only lightly on Pyongyang.
In his Aug. 15 Liberation Day speech, Lee offered no new proposals on the North, stressing only the importance of building trust and peace while focusing mainly on the economy.
Last year, he used the platform to boldly propose a special tax to help shoulder the cost of eventual unification, drawing the ire of Pyongyang.
“The message was clear,” Choi Jin-wook of the Korea Institute for National Unification said. “He is going to stick with his principles and doesn’t want to make any big political event such as an inter-Korean summit. The status quo is acceptable.”
The stance is in contrast to earlier projections that Lee would push hard for a diplomatic breakthrough to burnish his legacy and provide a boost for his Grand National Party in presidential polls next year.
Inter-Korean relations have been rocky since Lee came into power in 2008 and he took a hard line posture on the North, drastically reducing aid and tying its provisions to denuclearization steps by the North. Last year, Pyongyang mounted two deadly attacks on the South.
But tensions have cooled slightly in recent weeks after the two sides held bilateral denuclearization talks in Bali last month in a hopeful step towards the resumption of multilateral negotiations.
The contact led to rare bilateral talks with Washington, which was seen as a second step toward the rekindling of six-way talks.
Choi said the speech left the door open for talks but said it affirmed Lee’s resolve not to make “artificial” breakthroughs in the final year of his term.
Yoo Ho-yeol, an expert at Korea University, agreed that while Lee will not likely make big changes, he could become more flexible while waiting to see whether Pyongyang initiates more bilateral denuclearization talks.
“If the North comes forth with sincerity, the Lee government will continue to provide assistance,” he said. “I think he will show some flexibility in dealing with the North.”
Seoul recently approved a small amount of government-level aid, the first in almost nine months, to the North to help it cope with torrential rainfall that has claimed lives on both sides of the border. The package is pending North Korean approval.
Yoo said it was also telling that Unification Minister Hyun In-taek has kept his position despite speculation that someone else would take over amid an ongoing stalemate.
“Replacing Minister Hyun would be a way for the President to change his basic policy. But if the North takes a constructive approach toward multilateral talks under Hyun’s leadership, that’s a reason to continue aid and keep him in charge.”
Seoul wants the North to halt its nuclear programs and allow international inspectors to verify activities before resuming the six-party talks on Pyongyang’s denuclearization. The forum halted when the North walked out in 2009 in protest of international sanctions for its nuclear and missile tests.
