 Officials of the ruling Saenuri Party make a final check of a situation board containing the list of the party’s candidates running in the 19th National Assembly elections at the party’s headquarters in Seoul, Tuesday, the eve of the poll. / Yonhap |
The nation will go to the polls Wednesday, a couple of days before North Korea’s planned launch of a satellite on the back of a long-range rocket, to select 300 National Assemblymen.
Judging by images shown near the launch pad and satellite footage, intelligence sources presumed the reclusive state may go ahead with the liftoff Saturday.
Post-election politics will be shrouded in a veil of mystery as the rare coincidence of the key domestic event and the foreign policy challenge will complicate the situation, according to campaign watchers.
On the foreign policy front, political scientists forecast that it will be an uphill battle for Seoul to coordinate a policy response with the international community to counter the launch.
Choi Jin, president of the Institute of Presidential Leadership, predicted public opinion will highly likely be polarized over
the North’s action. The conservative Saenuri Party demanded the government apply a punishment-oriented North Korea approach, whereas the liberal Democratic United Party (DUP) insist a flexible approach and engagement are more appropriate.
Choi says the polarizing approaches toward North Korea between the two camps are likely to continue in the wake of the April 11 elections as they will seek to play the North Korea card to rally supporters for the presidential election slated for December.
The presidential leadership expert said the rift in the North Korea approach in the political arena will make it difficult for policymakers to take a common stance with the international community over the threat.
On the domestic political front, the rise or fall of the progressive forces will hold the key to the fate of a presidential candidate of the ruling Saenuri Party.
Choi Young-jin, a professor of political science of ChungAng University in Seoul, said there is a good reason for ruling party presidential hopefuls to monitor closely how many parliamentary seats the minor progressive party will garner.
If the Unified Progressive Party (UPP) gets a boost in the parliamentary elections, Choi predicted, the presidential poll slated for December will be an uphill battle for a ruling party candidate.
“If the UPP proves to be an influential entity by getting a sizable number of seats, the opposition camp will be strengthened as liberals and leftists will team up to counter the conservative candidate in the presidential election,” the political scientist said. “If this becomes a reality, a ruling party candidate will find it very difficult to deal with his or her rival in the campaign.”
Analysts said if the DUP and the UPP together garner half (150) or more of the parliamentary seats, the Saenuri Party will be troubled in pushing policies in the legislature.
They agreed the results of the National Assembly elections are linked to the presidential poll to be held in eight months time.
Choi of the presidential leadership institute noted a presidential candidate who has political acumen and is able to read between the lines in public opinion revealed in the Wednesday election results will be the ultimate winner of the presidential poll in December.
Nearly 40 million eligible voters are asked to participate in polls.
Starting at 6 a.m., voting will continue until 6 a.m. at approximately 13,470 polling stations.
A total of 300 parliamentary seats are up for grabs: 246 representatives will be chosen through direct voting, while the remaining 54 will be chosen based on the popular vote each party gains.
Korean citizens living overseas took part in the elections for the first time through an absentee voting system which ended on April 2. The turnout marked only 2.5 percent of those eligible.
Campaign watchers say voter turnout holds the key to determining the winning party of the Wednesday elections. The main opposition DUP believes if the turnout rate goes to 60 percent or higher, they are more likely to win. The conventional election wisdom also says a ruling party will benefit if the turnout is low.
Analysts say the election results will also be affected by turnout rates of relatively younger generations in their 20s, 30s and 40s whose voting pattern in the previous elections proved to be in favor of the DUP.
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