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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin smile during their meeting in Vladivostok, Russia, in this April 25, 2019, file photo. North Korea's next nuclear weapons test will likely be the first one to avoid a condemnation and additional sanctions from the United Nations Security Council because of Russia's right to veto them, according to an expert. Reuters-Yonhap |
Pyongyang's next nuclear test will likely be first to avoid united condemnation, sanctions
By Jung Min-ho
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| Hyun Seung-soo, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification |
Intelligence reports of the United States and South Korea show that the North is on the brink of conducting its seventh nuclear test. The regime's decision to proceed would certainly draw international criticism. Yet, such voices will likely be less united this time than in the past, said Hyun Seung-soo, an expert on Russia at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
"I'm not sure about China (another permanent member). But Russia will very likely exercise its veto power against any UNSC attempt to pass a resolution condemning North Korea or to impose additional sanctions on it," Hyun told The Korea Times Tuesday. "Even before the war in Ukraine, there have been growing voices in Russia that the government's decision in the past to join the U.S.-led criticism and sanctions against the North was a grave mistake."
That does not mean that Moscow would welcome or condone Pyongyang's development of nuclear bombs, he said. Russia, one of just five official nuclear-weapon states and a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, simply known as the NPT, does not share the privileges attached to the special weapons with more countries. But after 20 years of cooperation with U.S.-led efforts to contain threats from North Korea, Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, realized that doing so did not offer ― and won't promise ― any benefits to his country, Hyun added.
North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests to date, once each in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2017, as well as twice in 2016. All were immediately criticized and sanctioned by the united voice of the UNSC.
When Russia agreed to sign the resolutions, its leaders were not expecting that it ultimately would lead to more severe sanctions against North Korea, Hyun said. "In fact, Russia tried to relax the sanctions in return for joining the U.S. in condemning the North morally. However, the U.S. did not give Russia what it wanted, and Russia no longer has such expectations," he added.
Putin's change of stance appears to have emboldened the North, which has conducted weapons tests at an unprecedented pace this year, firing dozens of ballistic missiles. At UNSC meetings, however, Russia and China pointed the finger at the U.S. for inflating tensions in the region through combined military drills with South Korea, rejecting the approval of any additional resolutions or sanctions.
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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, visits Pyongyang International Airport to inspect the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, in this March 24 file photo. Yonhap |
In the new Cold War climate, which Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's rising influence helped create, the North is expected to continue to get closer to the big powers as it needs a shield against the U.S. and its allies. The recent U.S. intelligence reports that North Korea has been secretly transferring weapons to Russia to help its war are only the latest signs of the climate where the three are strengthening relations.
North Korea's military repeatedly denied the reports, accusing the U.S. government of trying to tarnish its global image with rumors.
But many experts think the reports are credible, at least far more than North Korea's claims. Victor Cha, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in the U.S., is among those who share Hyun's view that North Korea is using the Ukraine war to tighten its relations with Russia and taking advantage of the increasingly divisive world to protect its nuclear ambition.
All this suggests a major challenge for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, whose interest in the human rights of ordinary North Koreas will be limited by Russia and China. North Korea's next nuclear test, if conducted as widely expected, would provide the biggest test of the president's leadership, Hyun noted.
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