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| North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site / Yonhap |
Nuclear test would have no immediate benefits at this time: expert
By Kang Seung-woo
A much-hyped North Korean nuclear test did not happen ahead of the U.S. midterm elections although all preparations for a seventh nuclear test are reported to be complete.
Diplomatic observers view there is no urgent need at this point for the Kim Jong-un regime to push ahead with another nuclear test that could backfire.
According to Beyond Parallel, a project of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, Monday (local time), a day before the U.S. midterm elections, there was no new activity of significance observed at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear test facility.
"This is expected because both the United States and South Korea assess North Korea as having finished all preparations for conducting a nuclear test using this tunnel," it said, citing the latest satellite image.
The South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities believe that North Korea has been ready to go with a nuclear test since May, saying that the only thing left before an actual test may be a political decision.
The National Intelligence Service expected that North Korea could carry out a nuclear test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7. China held its party congress from Oct. 16 to 22, where President Xi Jinping was elected for his third term, and the U.S. elections were scheduled for Nov. 8.
"North Korea is technically not in an urgent situation enough to conduct another nuclear test, thanks to its past six tests," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher from the Korea Institute for National Unification.
"Its activities indicating North Korea has been preparing for a nuclear test meant that the country was set to resume advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities rather than detonating a nuclear device immediately," he said.
Even if North Korea carries out another nuclear test, it would be of no benefit, according to Cho.
"Should a nuclear test occur, it would be aimed at pressuring the U.S., not developing its nuclear technology. But considering the current situation, another test would not be helpful because it could be overshadowed by the U.S. midterm elections and draw hardline responses from the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties," he said.
In the lead-up to the U.S. elections, there had been growing speculation that Pyongyang would not test a nuclear bomb.
Unification Minister Kwon Young-se told the National Assembly, Monday, that there had been no signs that a nuclear test was imminent, although he said that the North could carry out a nuclear test at any time.
Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) spokesman Col. Kim Jun-rak also said, Tuesday, that North Korea had been expected to carry out a nuclear test in a short period of time, based on a political decision, but that there is nothing to explain further at this time.
With no provocation before the U.S. elections, the question has shifted to when North Korea will detonate a nuclear weapon. Some predict that the North may push ahead with it when U.S. President Joe Biden attends the G20 summit in Indonesia, scheduled for Nov. 15 and 16.
However, Cho said that it would be an unfeasible scenario, as a nuclear test during the summit would lead North Korea to see adverse effects.
"For North Korea, a nuclear test is a bargaining chip against the U.S., but a nuclear test, while Biden is at the G20 summit, could see a stronger response from the U.S.," Cho said.
"North Korea will conduct a nuclear test when the country thinks it can maximize the effects of the experiment. In that respect, the current situation is not that urgent for the North."
He added: "North Korea will decide on a nuclear test, based on the situation on the Korean Peninsula."
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