By Sunny Lee
BEIJING – While the Chinese government has reportedly been engaged in painstaking efforts to persuade North Korea to forgo its planned nuclear test, most analysts say such efforts will fall eventually upon deaf ears.
"North Korea will definitely go ahead with the nuclear test," said Zhang Liangui, an influential expert on the North at the Party School of the China Communist Party Central Committee in Beijing.
"North Korea needs the test as part of its long-term nuclear weapons program that requires multiple tests for upgrades. So, it doesn't matter if the international community is opposed to it. The recent U.N. sanctions against North Korea won't make a dent either," Zhang said.
Diplomatic sources in Beijing told South Korean daily the Chosun Ilbo, Wednesday, that the Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned North Korean Ambassador Ji Jae-ryong twice and the deputy chief of the North Korean mission, Park Myong-ho, once to tell them to drop the test, which experts say is ready to be conducted at any time.
China is North Korea's only real ally and is widely seen as the only country with any leverage over Pyongyang. However, it has long been blamed by the international community for "shielding" the North despite the latter's various belligerent acts, because Beijing perceives Pyongyang as a useful "buffer zone" against the U.S. and its allies – a mentality that goes back to the Cold War period.
Yet this time China's attitude is seen very differently. China spoke out much more openly against North Korea's "satellite launch" in December than it has against most past North Korean violations and it supported U.N. sanctions too.
China's Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai also reaffirmed Beijing's disapproval about Pyongyang's nuclear test when he said this week in Hong Kong that China "resolutely opposes" the move.
Analysts say there are a few reasons why the attitude of China is making unusually strong gestures against Pyongyang's planned move.
"A nuclear test is special. It's different from a missile test. China takes it seriously," said a North Korea analyst with a state-run think tank in Beijing.
"China's persuasion may fail. North Korea sometimes listens to China. Sometimes it doesn't," he said. He requested anonymity because he often travels to Pyongyang and doesn't want to jeopardize his career by discussing the sensitive topic with a foreign media.
Beijing is also making an effort "to form influence over North Korea's young new leader," he said. "If it were Kim Jong-il, he wouldn't listen to China. But we think his son may be different, especially because he received a Western education and may be more open-minded."
If the young leader is persuaded by Beijing this time, it is likely that he can be persuaded next time as well, the logic goes. "That's part of the reason why China is making that effort."
"We still don't know much about the young leader. We're testing him out. If we succeed, then we also think that there is more chance that we can persuade him to become North Korea's Deng Xiaoping, rather than another Kim Jong-il," he said.
For the last few days, the world has been also wondering whether China has finally lost patience with North Korea, as the rift between the duo deepens over the nuclear test. The state-run Global Times warned Pyongyang that there would be a "heavy price" if an imminent nuclear test goes ahead. It also threatened to cut off aid.
Yet analysts say the ties between the duo wont' be affected in a major way even if Pyongyang goes ahead with the nuke blast, which they think is likely to happen in the end.
"China will join the U.N. to condemn North Korea and we will have a cooling-off period. But after some time passes, the ties will be back on normal track. We need each other strategically in East Asia. Besides, North Korea also badly needs Chinese economic investments now, more than at any other time," a China analyst said.
BEIJING – While the Chinese government has reportedly been engaged in painstaking efforts to persuade North Korea to forgo its planned nuclear test, most analysts say such efforts will fall eventually upon deaf ears.
"North Korea will definitely go ahead with the nuclear test," said Zhang Liangui, an influential expert on the North at the Party School of the China Communist Party Central Committee in Beijing.
"North Korea needs the test as part of its long-term nuclear weapons program that requires multiple tests for upgrades. So, it doesn't matter if the international community is opposed to it. The recent U.N. sanctions against North Korea won't make a dent either," Zhang said.
Diplomatic sources in Beijing told South Korean daily the Chosun Ilbo, Wednesday, that the Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned North Korean Ambassador Ji Jae-ryong twice and the deputy chief of the North Korean mission, Park Myong-ho, once to tell them to drop the test, which experts say is ready to be conducted at any time.
China is North Korea's only real ally and is widely seen as the only country with any leverage over Pyongyang. However, it has long been blamed by the international community for "shielding" the North despite the latter's various belligerent acts, because Beijing perceives Pyongyang as a useful "buffer zone" against the U.S. and its allies – a mentality that goes back to the Cold War period.
Yet this time China's attitude is seen very differently. China spoke out much more openly against North Korea's "satellite launch" in December than it has against most past North Korean violations and it supported U.N. sanctions too.
China's Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai also reaffirmed Beijing's disapproval about Pyongyang's nuclear test when he said this week in Hong Kong that China "resolutely opposes" the move.
Analysts say there are a few reasons why the attitude of China is making unusually strong gestures against Pyongyang's planned move.
"A nuclear test is special. It's different from a missile test. China takes it seriously," said a North Korea analyst with a state-run think tank in Beijing.
"China's persuasion may fail. North Korea sometimes listens to China. Sometimes it doesn't," he said. He requested anonymity because he often travels to Pyongyang and doesn't want to jeopardize his career by discussing the sensitive topic with a foreign media.
Beijing is also making an effort "to form influence over North Korea's young new leader," he said. "If it were Kim Jong-il, he wouldn't listen to China. But we think his son may be different, especially because he received a Western education and may be more open-minded."
If the young leader is persuaded by Beijing this time, it is likely that he can be persuaded next time as well, the logic goes. "That's part of the reason why China is making that effort."
"We still don't know much about the young leader. We're testing him out. If we succeed, then we also think that there is more chance that we can persuade him to become North Korea's Deng Xiaoping, rather than another Kim Jong-il," he said.
For the last few days, the world has been also wondering whether China has finally lost patience with North Korea, as the rift between the duo deepens over the nuclear test. The state-run Global Times warned Pyongyang that there would be a "heavy price" if an imminent nuclear test goes ahead. It also threatened to cut off aid.
Yet analysts say the ties between the duo wont' be affected in a major way even if Pyongyang goes ahead with the nuke blast, which they think is likely to happen in the end.
"China will join the U.N. to condemn North Korea and we will have a cooling-off period. But after some time passes, the ties will be back on normal track. We need each other strategically in East Asia. Besides, North Korea also badly needs Chinese economic investments now, more than at any other time," a China analyst said.
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