Pyongyang's 7th nuclear test to strain China-North Korea ties

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech during the opening ceremony of the 20th National Congress of China's ruling Communist Party in Beijing, China, Sunday. AP-Yonhap

By Kang Hyun-kyung

Chinese leader Xi Jinping emphasized the continuity of China's assertive foreign policy in a televised speech during the Chinese Communist Party's week-long Congress, which opened on Sunday in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Xi said China has taken a clear-cut stance against a U.S.-led hegemony and power politics and is opposed to unilateralism and bullying.

His remarks hint at the lingering confrontation between U.S.-led democracies and autocracies represented by China, Russia and North Korea, which has been evident particularly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Xi's third term as leader.

Experts say that the seventh nuclear test North Korea has been preparing for will be a real test for Sino-North Korea ties.

"China appears to be in the early phases of recognizing that North Korean nuclear weapons could also affect China, either indirectly or directly," Bruce Bennett, an adjunct researcher at The RAND Corporation and a professor of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, told The Korea Times. "North Korea likely has sufficient nuclear material for 50 or so nuclear weapons, and it likely needs no more than about 20 for self-defense against the Republic of Korea and the United States ― it has begun building the nuclear forces for offensive operations, as Kim Jong-un has been saying."

Bennett speculated that North Korea's motives for its military buildup might go beyond the reclusive state's self-defense to protecting itself from foreign invasion.

"China has threatened North Korea about invading the Republic of Korea; Kim is likely stockpiling nuclear weapons to deter Chinese intervention either in that case or if internal turmoil develops in North Korea," he said.

China reacted furiously whenever North Korea conducted a nuclear test. As seen in its reaction to the North's fourth nuclear test conducted in January, 2016, China's foreign ministry issued a statement addressing that it firmly opposed to a nuclear test and urging the North to honor its commitment to denuclearization.

Some experts, however, say things may turn out very differently this time.

Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at The Sejong Institute, pointed to an intensified U.S.-China rivalry as a reason behind his skepticism about China's intervention to restrain the North.

"In the past when U.S.-China relations were not as bad as they are today, and there was room for cooperation between them with regard to North Korea," he said. "What we see now is that the U.S.-China relations couldn't be worse and there is literally no room for the two sides to find common interests. So what's happening is that even though North Korea goes for provocation, like the firing of nuclear-capable missiles, China won't deter its neighbor from going further because China is sort of enjoying the situation as an observer."

Robert Kelly, a professor of political science at Pusan National University in the southern port city of Busan, presented a similar view and said he thinks China will say little about North Korean threats in the future.

"The U.S. and China are sliding into a cold war. And countries like North Korea and Russia are informal partners in that struggle," he said. "So, China will not criticize the war in Ukraine nor North Korea's nuclear test."

Kelly said a tougher test will be China's response to a seventh nuclear test which Korean and U.S. officials think can happen any time.

"That will be harder to ignore than the recent missile tests, but my guess is that China's response to that will be quite muted, too," he said. "It's a shame actually. I think China, the United States, South Korea and Japan all share an interest in slowing North Korea's weapons of mass destruction march. But the politics are just so complicated."

An undated photo released on Oct. 10, 2022 by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un overseeing a military drill carried out to check and assess the war deterrent and nuclear counterattack capability of the country, amid ongoing joint military exercises involving US and South Korean forces in the waters near the Korean Peninsula. EPA-Yonhap

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ratcheted up his rhetoric, characterizing a series of nuclear-capable missile launches over the East Sea between South Korea and Japan during the past couple of weeks as "tactical nuclear drills."

To date, North Korea has fired a total of 27 missiles this year alone ― 24 of them were ballistic missiles and the remaining three were cruise missiles. The North test-fired its missiles 13 times since President Yoon Suk-yeol was inaugurated on May 10.

North Korea's latest provocations demonstrated that the regime's show of force has evolved from a single event to a hybrid one using a mix of conventional weapons and missiles.

It flew 10 warplanes near the inter-Korean border on Oct. 13, which was followed 130 artillery shells being fired from the West Sea between South Korea and China and a short-range ballistic missile the next day.

Ellen Kim, deputy director and senior fellow at Korea Chair of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Andy Lim, associate fellow at Korea Chair, said that North Korea's latest provocations show new patterns.

"First, North Korea is increasingly carrying out its provocations at night, which indicates that its military action can take place at any time of the day or night," they said in a commentary released to the media. "Second, the attacks are orchestrated to take place on all fronts (water, land and air) and one after the other. Third, from what used to be a single missile event, North Korea's provocation seems to be evolving into a multiple (or hybrid) event using a mix of conventional weaponry and missiles."

Together with the reclusive state's continued firing of missiles, despite international condemnation, Kim's unprecedentedly provocative rhetoric regarding its nuclear program has caused some ruling South Korean party politicians to harbor skepticism toward existing policy options, which are designed to counter the North.

In China, Bennett said, some have begun to voice worries about the North Korean nuclear weapon threat to China.

"There are many circumstances in which China could potentially intervene militarily in North Korea and if it does, the North's current doctrine and strategy of nuclear weapon defense would likely be applied to a Chinese intervention just as much as the North would apply such a strategy against a Republic of Korea-U.S. intervention," he said. "Some in China appear to understand this, but by and large, the Chinese government apparently has yet to appreciate this possibility."

As China recognizes that North Korea also poses a threat to it, Bennett said Xi may adjust his policies accordingly.

Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at CNS, predicts that China's support for North Korea will continue during Xi's third term.

"The Ukraine War has deepened the conflict between democracies and autocracies, with North Korea benefitting from more Russian and Chinese support as a loyal member of the camp of autocracies," he said.

An undated photo released on Oct. 10, 2022 by the official North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows the units of the Korean People's Army (KPA) for the operation of tactical nukes staging a military drill carried out to check and assess the war deterrent and nuclear counterattack capability of the country, amid ongoing joint military exercises involving US and South Korean forces in the waters near the Korean Peninsula. EPA-Yonhap