[ANALYSIS] Why Three Nos don't matter for Seoul-Beijing ties

Maintaining 'constructive ambiguity' is necessary to keep S. Korea-China partnership working

By Kim Yoo-chul

Defending the status quo can be a difficult and lonely position to be in, especially in an age where political policies are established based on conflicts between long-time allies and strategic partners.

However, in diplomacy, the preferred option is keeping things as they are, although doing this is more about tolerating unexpected uncertainties. Sandwiched as Seoul is between regional powers in Northeast Asia ― China, Japan, Russia and the United States ― this "middle power" can't sway its powerful neighbors on pending geopolitical issues.

Political analysts in Seoul say it is far-fetched to expect South Korea, as a middle power, to help alleviate key geopolitical tensions. According to them, while Seoul is asked to keep its expectations modest, the country is thereby obliged to maintain a sort of "constructive ambiguity" when handling China's so-called "Three Nos" policy.

Constructive ambiguity is a political stance commonly attributed to Henry Kissinger, known as the king of 1970s U.S. diplomacy. The term was created based on the perception that ambiguously worded documents could provide chances for pursuing the best interests of parties involved in negotiations.

China is South Korea's largest trading partner. As of last year, China received a quarter of all South Korean exports with the United States coming in second at 15 percent, according to government data.

However, relations between the two countries have quickly turned sour as South Korea is set to announce its participation in the United States-led semiconductor alliance, known as Chip 4, which is viewed by Beijing as Washington's plot to eventually weaken its tech industry.

Recently, politicians from the ruling conservative party have asked President Yoon Suk-yeol to ignore the Three Nos concept. Chinese officials, however, state that any reversal by the Yoon administration regarding these red lines ― which the Moon Jae-in administration tacitly acknowledged ― will be an act of disrespect toward Beijing.

The Three Nos include Seoul's promise not to deploy any additional Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery defense systems here, not to join Washington's missile defense system and not to join a trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan military alliance.

Nevertheless, the central point is that the Three Nos policy is more like a term or concept and it is neither an official promise nor an agreement signed by the relevant parties.

Chinese President Xi Jinping raises his hand to show approval of a work report during the closing ceremony for the 19th Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 24, 2017. AP-Yonhap

"The Three Nos policy should be understood as a tool developed by the former Moon Jae-in administration to counter China's unofficial economic retaliations against major South Korean businesses, after Seoul's deployment of the U.S. battery system. Relations between the two countries should not be downgraded," an aide to former President Moon said by telephone.

No participation in Quad, matter of sovereignty

China has been consistent in expressing its dissatisfaction regarding South Korea's decision to deploy a THAAD system saying that the decision hurts its strategic security interests.

"The rationale is simple. The THAAD issue is a matter of sovereignty. North Korea was preparing its seventh nuclear test and this means that maintaining credible deterrence and joint defense capabilities should remain the linchpins of South Korean security. It's true that THAAD wasn't designed to counter threats from China as the core purpose of the system is to track provocative actions by North Korea, if any," another aide to former President Moon said.

"The THAAD system hasn't been fully operational since its deployment in the southern provincial city of Seongju. Despite China's assertion, it's clear that Washington and even Seoul don't have a commitment to counter military threats from China. This is what the U.S. doesn't want and vice versa for China. Yoon's foreign policy teams do not need to react sensitively regarding China's position on THAAD-related issues. Maintaining constructive ambiguity is required," according to him.

No additional THAAD systems have been deployed since Yoon took power, months ago, according to government officials.

Another point is that President Yoon's attendance at the recent NATO Summit could be interpreted as South Korea unofficially joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). Whether pursued or offered, however, Seoul's participation is unlikely. China is highly sensitive to the United States' moves to strengthen the Quad alliance, sometimes called the Asian NATO.

"Different positions over historical and territorial issues with Tokyo and the not-so-stable agreement with Beijing has narrowed the scope of integration of security alliances between South Korea, the United States and Japan. Washington doesn't want to include Seoul as an additional Quad member because the U.S. is well aware of the potential economic coercion employed by China to its allies in the case of an imminent Quad expansion," Pyo Na-ri, a professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA), said.

Pyongyang citizens pay tribute to the statues of their late leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il on Mansu Hill on the occasion of the 62nd anniversary of Kim Jong-il's first field guidance for the revolutionary armed forces in Pyongyang, Aug. 25. AP-Yonhap

"Seoul's exclusion from the Quad could limit the country's strategic focus areas. This also means Washington and Seoul have no intentions of hurting China's strategic security interests as South Korea is hoping to pursue balanced regional diplomacy."

On the sidelines of this year's NATO Summit, Yoon met with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The trilateral summit was a chance to reaffirm Washington, Seoul and Tokyo's commitment to the pursuit of "extended deterrence" against North Korea, said officials at the presidential office.

Comprehensive strategic alliance

Building stable architecture for Seoul-Beijing relations, therefore, will require a substantial amount of time and concerted effort as the two sides are asked to narrow the gap.

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launcher stands in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, in this July 29, 2017 photo. Yonhap

A transition from the Moon administration's "China-favored" foreign policy approach within the context of Washington-Beijing conflicts to a "comprehensive strategic alliance" with both the United States and China is necessary despite Seoul's position in viewing Washington as the centerpiece of the country's foreign policy, political analysts say.

"Yoon's foreign policy teams should take a nuanced approach when it comes to China-related issues. Rather than dealing with China's concerns about the Three Nos policy, the government should evaluate the estimated impact on the South Korean economy of renewed conflicts with China. The two sides need to find a middle ground for collaboration in various economic projects as the primary source of China's pressure on South Korea was economic," said Jang Jeong-aah, a professor of China studies at Incheon University.

China is the also lifeline of North Korea both economically and politically. Former President Moon Jae-in's attempts to bring Pyongyang out of the cold failed to yield lasting results.

The Yoon administration's North Korea policy, at least from the North's standpoint, will result in greater polarization of the Korean Peninsula. Yoon said South Korea was preparing plans to bring North Korea back to the negotiation table. Experts say, rushing to resolve frosty relations with China through divisive diplomacy won't be desirable because doing so may impede efforts to effectively handle the North Korean nuclear issue.

"For example, given China's refusal to support a resolution earlier ― sought by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) ― for an imposition of extra sanctions on North Korea after its missile launch in May this year, South Korea has to remind China about the necessity of keeping the momentum of inter-Korean talks alive in terms of pursuing regional stability and addressing Beijing's security concerns," said Lee Dong-gyu, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a local private think tank. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine reawakened the necessity to maintain a high-level of global cooperation. South Korea has its role to serve as a middle ground in East Asia."

In a letter delivered to Chinese President Xi Jinping to mark the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Yoon said he was hoping to see an improvement in South Korea-China relations and to see China play a "constructive role" in resolving the North's nuclear issue. Xi expressed his hope to build a substantive friendship with South Korea.