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| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a post-summit dinner at the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia, in this April 25, 2019, file photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap |
Pyongyang, Moscow, Beijing become increasingly united against Washington
By Jung Min-ho
As North Korea becomes increasingly united with Russia and China against the United States, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will likely be, if it isn't already, nearly impossible in just a few years, according to experts Wednesday.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the rising influence of China in recent years have ushered in a new Cold War climate, prompting the reinforcement of an anti-U.S. alliance and opening an opportunity for the North to protect its nuclear ambitions, they said.
"The current (Yoon Suk-yeol) government has this last opportunity for denuclearization. Perhaps, we have already missed it," Chun Chae-sung, a professor of political science and international relations at Seoul National University, said at the Korea Global Forum for Peace's Wednesday session in Seoul. "North Korea perceives the current situation as a new Cold War and has strengthened relations with China and Russia … This means that North Korea's need for U.S. security guarantees and, therefore, reasons for abandoning its nuclear weapons will decrease."
In a surprise move on July 13, the North recognized the independence of two Russia-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine in support of Moscow's war against its neighbor.
"Even [leaders of] Russia did not see it coming ― and then, the North reportedly offered to send its workers to the region," said Hyun Seung-soo, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. "Over the past 20 years, Russia's diplomatic strategies on North Korea and the Korean Peninsula have not changed much. But I believe it is now on the verge of a big shift."
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| North Korea's Ambassador to Russia Sin Hong-chol, left, and Rodion Miroshnik, ambassador of the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) to Russia, pose during a ceremony to present a document recognizing the LPR at a meeting in the North Korean Embassy in Moscow, in this July 14 file photo. TASS-Yonhap |
In the short run, there seems little incentive for the North to make such decisions, which have drawn international criticism. But in the long term, what it can gain from Russia, one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, is "enormous," he noted.
"North Korea is probably expecting Russia's support at the U.N. … It is very likely that Russia will offer it. I have heard from sources in Russia that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may visit Russia this year," Hyun said. "I agree with Chun's assessment on the probability of denuclearization … We may have already entered the situation in which it is very difficult [to achieve]."
With possible help of Russia and China, another permanent member of the UNSC, it will be far more difficult to impose additional U.N. sanctions on the North over its nuclear weapons program.
North Korea has also consolidated ties with China in recent years. During his speech on the 69th anniversary of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, Kim honored the Chinese soldiers who "shed their blood with our military" in the conflict against South Korea and the United Nations Command.
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| From left, Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) senior research fellow Jun Byoung-kon, Seoul National University professor Chun Chae-sung, Korea National Diplomatic Academy professor Kim Han-kwon and KINU research fellows Hyun Seung-soo and Min Tae-eun attend a session of the Korea Global Forum for Peace, titled "The Choice of the Korean Peninsula in the New International Security Order," at the Millennium Hilton Seoul, Wednesday. Korea Times photo by Jung Min-ho |
Some analysts believe the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, an important political event for President Xi Jinping, is the chief reason behind Pyongyang's decision to delay its seventh nuclear weapons test, which has been estimated for months to be ready.
Powerful nations, which were once united against North Korea's nuclear weapons program, become increasingly indifferent to the issue as they are preoccupied with other political and diplomatic priorities.
Chun said the Yoon government needs to step up efforts to tell them the issue still is greatly relevant to their national interests and their collective effort is essential to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
"Time is running out," he said. "I think this administration knows it well."
