[ANALYSIS] Kim Jong-un wants to follow in Pakistan's nuke footsteps: ex-aides

Pyongyang supports denuclearization in principle, but only as part of wider disarmament efforts

By Kim Yoo-chul

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un officially warned that his regime is prepared to use nuclear weapons in a possible military confrontation with the United States and South Korea, while observers expect Pyongyang to delay its seventh nuclear test until after the Chinese Communist Party completes its convention in the fall.

After Kim's remarks carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), South Korea's presidential National Security Office urged the North to return to talks and asked it to take steps in advancing its denuclearization process.

Regarding the definition of denuclearization, North Korea is fixated on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, which also means the United States ending its "nuclear umbrella" security partnership with South Korea. The White House and the Pentagon clarified earlier their firm commitment to supporting coordinated diplomatic efforts to achieve the complete denuclearization of North Korea.

But two former aides to ex-President Moon Jae-in, both of whom had been involved in previous landmark talks between then President Donald Trump and the North's Kim, asked Seoul's foreign policy and inter-Korean affairs teams to reconsider its continuation of the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) concept.

CVID is similar to the "Libya model," which means that a provision of large-scale economic benefits including sanctions relief are promised, but only after Pyongyang completely dismantles its nuclear weapons.

Common thoughts are that Kim won't give up his nuclear weapons at all. The former aides said the time has come to navigate other "realistic and applicable options."

"The biggest sticking point during the two previous nuclear summits between the heads of the United States and North Korea in Singapore and Hanoi was sanctions against North Korea. But Kim Jong-un had hoped for the United States to offer credible security guarantees, the request of which was refused. North Korea's Kim and his family still want reassurances from the U.S. side for their security. A security guarantee matters more than the lifting of sanctions," a former aide to ex-President Moon said.

After the collapse of the 2019 U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi, then North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho said the North would advance the progress of taking denuclearization steps if the United States were to commit to a security guarantee, promising that the Kim regime would be safe.

Pakistani model?

Is North Korea seeking a declaration of an official non-hostile intent or even non-aggression pact? What specifically would be guaranteed? What kinds of form would a guarantee take ― a declaration of an end to the Korean War, or a peace treaty? Or could it be a part of pricey confidence-reaffirming steps and military force reductions?

Despite the continuation of joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington, the United States has never directly attacked North Korea since the signing of the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement to end the war that began in 1950 when North Korea invaded South Korea. Since then, North Korea has committed repeated acts of terrorism, nuclear threats and incursions.

"Between May 28 and May 30, 1998, Pakistan conducted six underground nuclear tests and later declared itself a nuclear state," another former aide to Moon, who was also engaged in the North Korean nuclear talks, added. "In return for placing visible, formal and legally binding caps on its nuclear programs and taking steps to improve its relationships with India, the United States removed most sanctions on Pakistan, while keeping in place those barring the provision of nuclear technology that may contribute to the Indian and Pakistani nuclear programs. From North Korea's viewpoint, the Pakistan model looks compelling."

At the time of Pakistan's declaration that it had become a nuclear state, the U.N. Security Council failed to impose economic sanctions on Islamabad due to China and Russia's opposition. But the Bush administration's War on Terror campaign saw Pakistan benefiting a lot from U.S. support because Washington considered Islamabad a potential facilitator in reviving U.S.-China relations at that time. Now, the United States wants to counter China's growing influence around the world.

Within that context, some security experts said given Pyongyang's attention to Islamabad's experience and the similarities between them ― Pakistan never signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and North Korea withdrew from the treaty in 2003, with Pyongyang facing a democratic Seoul as Islamabad did with New Delhi ― North Korea could conduct up to five small-scale nuclear tests suitable for 300-kilogram nuclear warheads for possible use in KN-23 or KN-24-class short-range ballistic missiles in only a few days, as Pakistan had done in 1998.

"North Korea is already a nuclear state. Kim Jong-un will never give up his nuclear weapons," said Lee Yong-joon, a former deputy foreign minister. "Pyongyang may want to become the Pakistan of Northeast Asia. That means North Korea will support denuclearization in principle, but only according to global disarmament effort. Corresponding measures should be implemented in conjunction with North Korea's nuclear disarmament steps if the United States and like-minded countries want to address the North's nuclear issues."

An analysis by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), showed that North Korea is believed to have the ability to produce up to 55 nuclear warheads as of January this year, while it possesses 20 warheads.

North Korea, South Korea, US alliance?

Is North Korea hoping to see more visible and tangible offers from the United States? Pyongyang views the peninsula as a territory where U.S. nuclear weapons and other types of "aggression forces" are deployed. Over 29,000 U.S. soldiers are stationed in the South.

This is the question that has been raised after the failure of the United States' security assurances to deter North Korea from strengthening its nuclear weapons.

Some Washington and Seoul officials were saying it's conceivable for the United States and South Korea to strike a strategic partnership with North Korea.

They claimed if South Korea promises a provision of massive economic assistance and the United States also guarantees financing to help improve the North Korean economy via international organizations, then the progress of denuclearization talks aimed at dismantling the North's nuclear weapons will advance.

"Given North Korea's attention to the Pakistan model, if North Korea changes the prime reason of having nuclear weapons as being for peace in Northeast Asia and a power balance in the region, then this could also justify the U.S. troops' presence within South Korea. Seaports and airfields in North Korea could be considered strategic spots from a U.S. standpoint amid heightened tensions with China," said Na Ho-seon, a military expert in Seoul, adding this idea is thinkable for North Korea in terms of bringing the United States back to the nuclear negotiating table. North Korea wants to handle its nuclear issues via direct talks with the United States.

At nuclear talks, Kim said he was seeking economic prosperity and hoping for a transactional negotiation including a concession-for-concession approach.

It seems that North Korea wants to follow a different path unlike Libya, Iraq and Iran. Experts also said the United States isn't seeking to change the North Korean regime, as sudden political turmoil in the North may weaken the South's position as the linchpin of Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy.

The ball is now in North Korea's court.

"For North Korea, are you still serious about pursuing economic prosperity and are you ready to clarify that your nuclear weapons won't be used for attacks or military confrontation before asking the United States and its allies for security guarantees?" the second former aide of Moon said.