Military tensions may escalate

This photo capture from a documentary aired by North Korea's state broadcasting station on Thursday shows the country's top leader Kim Jong-un patting the long-range rocket that was launched on Feb. 7. / Yonhap

By Kang Seung-woo

Inter-Korean relations are apparently headed toward their lowest ebb yet after North Korea announced Thursday that it will shutter the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) and turn it into a restricted military zone.

The announcement came one day after South Korea decided to shut down the inter-Korean complex ― the last remaining symbol of cross-border cooperation ― in retaliation to the North's latest long range rocket test.

A number of analysts have expressed concerns that the North might resort to further military provocations in order to protest against increasing international pressure on the regime due to its recent nuclear test and long-range rocket launch.

In response, the United States plans to deploy numerous strategic military assets on the Korean Peninsula as a deterrent against the isolated nation's additional provocations, which could turn out to be a repeat of Pyongyang's 2013 strategy when it threatened nuclear strikes against the United States as well as the South.

The government's decision to close down the joint factory park, is a form of punishment for the North's fourth nuclear test conducted on Jan. 6 and the long-range rocket launch, Sunday, both of which violated U.N. resolutions.

When the two Koreas agreed to open the GIC in 2004, the North moved back military units that had been deployed there, something regarded as playing an important role in defusing cross-border tension.

"It is a concern that the shutdown of the industrial park may lead the North to bring its military units back to the area. That will seriously heighten tension," said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.

Chang added: "With the international community's pursuit of fresh sanctions and the South's resumption of loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts, the shutdown of the joint industrial zone is increasing the possibility of the North taking provocative actions."

Koh Yoo-hwan, a professor at Dongguk University, said that the two Koreas may engage in a military clash.

"Amid an intensifying confrontation, a minor issue may lead to a skirmish between the two sides," he said.

The Kim Jong-un regime is expected to stage provocations when the United Nations imposes fresh sanctions on the North or the ROK-U.S. joint military exercises kick off next month.

"Around March, when the new sanctions are adopted and the joint drills begin, the North may test a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) or fire at the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone to protest against the South's broadcasting of propaganda messages," said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

Also, they may test-fire short- or mid-range missiles, as evidenced during last year's Key Resolve exercise.

Another possibility could be cyber attacks that have been previously been conducted against South Korean government agencies, businesses, banks, and media organizations because it is difficult to find direct evidence to prove that they originate in the North.

In fact, the North has already shown signs of additional provocations following its nuclear test and rocket launch.

On Monday, a North Korean patrol boat crossed the Northern Limit Line, a de facto maritime border between the two Koreas in the West Sea, which prompted warning shots from the South Korean Navy.

Amid the possibility of further provocations from the North, the U.S. will send a nuclear-powered submarine, the USS North Carolina, next week in an apparent show of force to the regime in Pyongyang.

"The U.S. Navy's nuclear-powered submarine USS North Carolina is coming to South Korea next week as far as I know," a military official said.

The Virginia-class attack submarine is capable of carrying Tomahawk cruise missiles and Mark 48 torpedoes.

In addition, the U.S. also plans to deploy the USS John C. Stennis, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, for next month's joint military exercises.

"The U.S. military will send a warning message and reassert its commitment to the defense of South Korea through the deployment of the key strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula," the official said.

In the wake of North Korea's fourth nuclear test, the U.S. flew a B-52 strategic bomber over Korea last month, and is reportedly also considering dispatching a B-2 stealth bomber and an F-22 stealth fighter.

In 2013, when the North spiked tensions, declaring a state of war with the South, the U.S. pursued a string of actions that demonstrated its advanced military capabilities that included dispatching a B-52, two B-2 and two F-22 aircraft, and the nuclear attack submarine USS Cheyenne. In addition, the USS John S. McCain, a guided missile destroyer, and the SBX-1, a sea-based radar platform, were positioned off the South Korean coast in order to keep a close watch on the North's military moves.

As a result, the show of military might draw more of the North's belligerent vitriol and further jack up tensions on the peninsula.