Experts warn of North Korea's evolving cyberattack capabilities

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By Jung Min-ho

One of the most underestimated security threats coming out of North Korea is its cyberattack capabilities. Hackers, many assume, can't kill people. But they can.

Cyberattackers could take control of a water treatment plant and change the chemical mixture to make it toxic, or they could penetrate the computer systems of a nuclear power plant to cause major malfunctions. In recent years, such cyberattacks have been attempted in many parts of the world, and some have succeeded, resulting in deaths or injuries indirectly.

A group of experts warn that the North could make use of such attacks if war were to break out on the Korean Peninsula, in a RAND Corporation report titled, "Characterizing the Risks of North Korean Chemical and Biological Weapons, Electromagnetic Pulse, and Cyber Threats."

"The infrastructure in South Korea seems to be very vulnerable to the North's cyberattacks. We have seen some cases in the banking systems … But what about other infrastructure like water supply or electricity? That would cause chaos," Choi Kang, president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and one of the co-authors of the collaborative report written with policy think tank RAND Corporation, said at a press conference at the institute in Seoul, Tuesday.

One of the possible scenarios could be to derail trains loaded with lethal chemicals. Other possible targets include dams, hospitals, airports and electric power grids, many of the computer systems of which have been penetrated by North Korea before, according to the report.

"These scenarios are contingent upon North Korea's cyberattack abilities," said Go Myung-hyun, another co-author. "We don't know [whether it is capable of such advanced attacks] … We have to find out."

From left, Choi Kang, president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, Cha Du-hyeogn, a North Korea expert, and Go Myong-hyun, a senior research fellow at the institute, attend a press conference to present their joint report titled, "Characterizing the Risks of North Korean Chemical and Biological Weapons, Electromagnetic Pulse, and Cyber Threats," at the institute building in Seoul, Tuesday. Courtesy of Asan Institute for Policy Studies

The report says the alleged U.S. and Israeli deployment of the Stuxnet virus to damage Iran's nuclear enrichment centrifuges and the Russian malware scheme accompanying its invasion of Ukraine this year could all serve as examples for North Korea to emulate and develop.

One of the tricky parts of cyberwarfare is that it can be waged from anywhere connected to the internet. For example, many North Korean hackers operate outside their country, typically in Russia or China. In the event of a war, their locations could make the conflict far more complicated as it may involve many countries.

Cyberattacks can be difficult to respond to effectively. The report outlines a number of defensive approaches including readiness, deterring such cyberattacks and denying their effects. The authors also suggest a number of offensive steps that South Korea and/or the U.S. could take, if necessary, such as revealing the full information about any cybercrimes, keeping track of cyberwarfare agents and taking down North Korean computer networks via cyber methods in the event that a hacking attempt is detected.

It is estimated that there are more than 6,000 North Korean cyber warriors who use their skills to steal financial resources for their regime in peacetime. Chainanalysis, a blockchain analysis firm based in New York City, estimates that North Korea has stolen 1.75 billion worth of cryptocurrency between 2017 and 2020.

Experts at the institute's media event also highlighted the dangers of North Korea's chemical and biological weapons, which they believe could be used against South Korea in the event of a war.

Their findings show that North Korea has amassed a substantial inventory of chemical weapons (about 2,500 to 5,000 tons), including choking agents like chlorine, and phosgene, as well as nerve agents like VX, which was used to kill Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Information about North Korea's biological weapons and its production capabilities is limited, with some experts suspecting that it may not have stockpiles of biological weapons.

The authors say that one of the most effective ways to respond to chemical and biological weapons is to develop abilities to incapacitate the North's delivery means.

"ROK (South Korea)-U.S. military planning needs to assume that a North Korean invasion of the ROK would include the employment of nuclear weapons, other weapons of mass destruction and major cyberattacks. They need to develop the strategy and capabilities for such a conflict, including surveillance and warning approaches, counterforce operations, active defenses, passive defenses, recovery and reconstitution and civil defense," the report says.

"The ROK-U.S. should seek to deter all North Korean provocations. This recommendation goes beyond provocations involving weapons of mass destruction and cyberattacks because of the escalatory nature of any confrontation with North Korea and because the North's perceived 'nuclear shadow' may increase its willingness to escalate to use of weapons of mass destruction. The ROK-U.S. need to convey to North Korea the costs it will pay for any provocations," according to the report.